On October 24, 2021, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady threw his 600th career touchdown pass. The ball went to wide receiver Mike Evans, then a Bucs fan, then to Brady via successful negotiation tactics.
The touchdown throw gave Tampa Bay a 20-0 lead over the visiting Chicago Bears, and Brady’s team would go on to win, 38-3.
Since his 600th touchdown pass, Brady has thrown 100 more attempts.
The moment Brady completed his 600th scoring toss, he had completed seven of his ten (70 percent) pass attempts that day, for 51-yards (5.1 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns.
After 600, Brady went on to complete 13 of his next 26 passes (50 percent) for 160-yards (6.2 yards per attempt) and two more touchdowns, the completions went way down while the production stayed up.
Not the greatest completion percentage. But the production was solid.
Things have changed a bit since then.
The following week, Brady nearly matched his season-long interception total with two against the New Orleans Saints. In that game, Brady was sacked three times as well.
Throwing multiple interceptions while being sacked multiple times in a single game is something that’s happened to Brady fewer than 30 times in his 300-plus NFL starts. And it happened amidst an 11 penalty day.
When it rains it pours.
After the bye week, Brady once again threw two interceptions, eclipsing the three he had thrown in Tampa Bay’s first seven games, in just the last two.
It was the first time he’d thrown two interceptions in the first quarter as a Buccaneers quarterback, and at all since the end of the 2012 NFL Season.
For his career, Brady has thrown two or more interceptions in just 15 percent of his games. This season, he’s done so in 33 percent of them.
It’s not all bad of course, he is the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, after all.
Coming into that game against the Bears, Brady was completing 68.5 percent of his passes, and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
In his 100 passes since his 600th scoring toss, he’s completed 64 percent has averaged 7.55 yards per attempt. Down, but not far from the pace he was on before.
His touchdown rate is actually up to eight percent from seven at the time of his historic pass, but his interception rate is also up. From one percent at the time to four percent since.
On his current pace, Brady would finish the season completing 440 of 668 passing attempts for 5,067 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions.
He would finish second in franchise history in passing yards in a single season, surpassing himself currently (4,633 yards in 2020) and falling just short of Jameis Winston’s 5,109-yards in 2019.
The 50 touchdown passes would make him the first Buccaneers quarterback to reach the number, and set him above himself in the franchise record books.
19 interceptions in the season would tie him for 9th most with Trent Dilfer (1996) in franchise history. And because I know someone is wondering, Winston had just the one season where he threw 19 or more interceptions as the Bucs’ starting quarterback.
Those are results, however, and this is pace. Pace can change. It obviously has in the past 100 passes, and can change again for the better in the next 100.
Either way, his individual numbers aren’t bad. It’s the lack of total offensive output (Bucs offense is averaging just 23 points per game since Brady’s 600th touchdown pass) and increase in turnovers from the quarterback position that give reason for concern.
Even if they aren’t all his fault. A turnover hurts just the same.
Especially when you factor in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense is surrendering right around 25 points per game in the same stretch.
For fantasy football enthusiasts, half of Brady’s touchdown passes since 600, have gone to Evans.