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Observations of the "Did It Have To Get This Sloppy" Bucs/Falcons Troubling Victory 1/3/21 w/Poll


1) I can't recall the last time the Buccaneers rolled into a postseason with a winning streak of this level, four straight games from our bye week to now beating out the likes of the Vikings, Lions, and now twice the Falcons. Even in our Super Bowl season in 2002, our December was a bit tepid (3-2 with a Week 15 loss to Pittsburgh). 2005 had us 4-1 with a Week 14 crusher at New England. It looks nice on paper though, a four-game win streak. It also looks nice winning today's game 44 to 27, as though we were dominant as hell smacking around a poor Atlanta team that ended the season 4-12 and bottom of the NFC South.

1a) But the results hide the sins. This may be an 11-5 team - a rarity in the Bucs' long history of bad years - but it played at times today no better than the 5-11 teams we tend to have the last 40-plus years.

1b) It may be the best offense the Bucs ever put on the field - well ahead of the 2002 lineup (Alstott, Keyshawn, McCardell, Brad Johnson at his journeyman best) that actually WON a Super Bowl - but it's an offense that sputtered in the Third Quarter, letting the Falcons battle their way back to within 3 points of tying us in the Fourth.

1c) And for all the talent we have on defense, today's sloppy performance exposed yet again a pass defense too soft on coverage and too dependent on a blitzing attack that is now more miss than hit.

1d) Yes, the Bucs are in the postseason. Yes, the Bucs are positioned at fifth seed (the top Wild Card spot in the NFC) ready to face an NFC East champion with a losing record (either a 7-9 Washington team or a 6-10 New York Giants squad). Yet the odds of facing a bad team feels like the Bucs can still lose out due to any number of factors we can't overcome in the high-stakes win-or-die moment of the playoffs.

2) The first thing the Bucs will have to overcome is the possible loss of our top offensive weapon WR Mike Evans. Just as he got to his 1,000 yard season mark - setting a league record - Evans turned his legs the wrong way during a catch attempt in the end zone that twisted his knee. The likelihood of it being season-ending (maybe into the NEXT season) as an MCL tear is too terrifying to contemplate. Without Evans, we are down one of the best Red Zone threats our team has. Yes, we still have Chris Godwin and we still have Rob Gronkowski as Tom Brady's favorite target, and the showcase performance Antonio Brown gave in the Second Half highlights how signing up him was a smart insurance policy after all. But Evans was a sure-handed target at the goal line - there's a reason why he owns almost half the team's TD records for receivers - and without him other defenses can better cover the other major targets we've got.

2a) The next thing the Bucs have to overcome is this damned soft zone defense we've got running in our Secondary. It's not a good cover scheme, whatever it is, because it's giving receivers about five yards of room to catch the damn ball, and then giving them another five yards to run and get first downs. Any opponent with a decent passing offense - which Atlanta has - is going to garner enough first downs to drive the ball and get in scoring range no matter what. Our defense is particularly vulnerable in the midfield area where our linebackers/strong safety/nickel covers are doing NOTHING to stop the easy short-field throws.

What I think is happening is that our defensive scheming based on the blitz packages we throw at Quarterbacks are supposed to get QBs before they can find their targets in open spaces. Problem is, blitzing is a high-stakes gamble: For every decent blitz where you get in the QB's face, there's five or six times their Offensive Line can pick it up and give their QB the extra second to get the throw away. I know calling off the blitzing packages may be something our defense can't do for fear of bringing chaos to a coached system, but there has to be a way of adjusting the blitzing deals to at least drop one more body into short coverage to stop these damned underbelly receptions.

2b) The third thing the Bucs have to overcome is complacency. Like most teams that build an early lead - the Bucs were up 20-3 halfway through the Second Quarter - we lost the intensity / focus which allowed the Falcons to claw back to a 20-10, then 23-20, then 30-27 nailbiter. The Bucs need a little more ruthlessness to get themselves to a 20-3 moment and then make it a 30-3 just to make damn sure the win will be a win.

3) The advantages the Bucs have THIS postseason that we haven't had in ages is the presence of a veteran leader at the most important position on the field. The acquisition of Tom Brady has already paid off the greatest dividends this franchise has ever received, with an age-defying season of 40 touchdown throws (the second-most he's ever done in a long career of great seaons), one of the best TD-to-INT ratios (40-12) we've EVER got out of our QBs, and a personal drive to win that augurs well for a postseason that will be Brady's 12th straight. His experience with the pressures of January can aid a Bucs roster full of players making their first visit, and keep everyone on offense playing at a level the other postseason teams might not be able to match.

3a) While we may be wary of the loss of Evans, the Bucs' 2020 offense is still arguably the best offensive unit we've ever had. The Offensive Line this year has been far better than previous seasons, anchored by reliable talent like Ali Marpet and Ryan Jensen and reinforced with a talented rookie at RT with Tristan Wirfs. Our running back corps got Ronald Jones II back, who led the Bucs rushing with 78 yards, a 6.3 YPC, one rushing TD, and the likelihood he can keep opposing defenses honest. We may not have OJ Howard at TE, but GRONK! has more than filled the gap as a serious Brady target, and our backup TE Cameron Brate cannot be discounted by opposing teams. And the loss of Evans is mitigated by Chris GOD-FORTHE-WIN and Antonio Brown (it's akin to losing Keyshawn Johnson in 2002 but still having Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius on hand) with serious deep-throw threat Scotty Miller (like having Joey Galloway for 2002 instead of 2005). We're talking about a unit that can honestly drop 31 points every playoff game. It's just a question of our defense keeping opponents under 30...

3b) Where the fans have every right to worry is our Defense. What we have to count on are seriously talented guys at skilled positions, it's merely a question of them gelling NOW when we need them the most. He may have had a quiet day today, but Jason Pierre-Paul has to step up this postseason with the key sacks and QB pressures he'd given the team over the regular season that earned him the team's sole Pro Bowl invite. Lavonte David led the team today in tackles but he's GOT to step up more as a pass-defender because that soft midfield where the LBs are is still too vulnerable. We missed Devin White today out with COVID protocol (and we may still miss him the first playoff game) along with Shaquil Barrett, whose downturn from that record sack season of 2019 is one of the reasons why our blitzing packages aren't working as well this 2020.

3c) I can't say if our secondary woes are on the talent we have there or if it's a bad coaching system (where Bowles' DC gameplanning has been questioned often by fans and for good reasons). Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting were called on today to shut down the deep ball and even did well forcing a turnover here and stopping a few drives there, but the Falcons still picked them apart often enough to expose all flaws.

3d) If there was anything good about the secondary it's been the rise of rookie talent Antoine Winfield Jr., who recovered a key fumble early on, mixed in well making tackles and stops, and played much like he did early in the season when he was a legitimate DROY (he kind of dropped off for the season, alas, and there's a guy on the Washington defensive front - Chase Young - who's probably getting the nod). Along with Wirfs, Winfield is making this the best rookie draft to the team since 2012.

4) Statistics of the game: Fourth-down conversions for the Falcons had them 2-for-3. In the last two months, other teams have figured out they can go for it on fourth down and get the first down to keep drives alive, thanks to that soft midfield zone. You wouldn't think pro football teams would gamble for that many fourth downs - many coaches are too conservative to normally think so - but against the Bucs they can... and do.

4a) Third down conversion wasn't healthy either: Falcons made 7-for-14 while the Bucs were 6-for-11. Atlanta could drive their offense as much as the Bucs could, and for a brief moment - at 30-27 early in the Fourth Quarter - the score was that close as well.

4b) Turnovers, Bucs forced two fumbles while Falcons snagged one INT. Points off turnovers favored the Bucs slightly, 10 points over 3. Season-wise, the Bucs secured 25 turnovers for a +8 differential, which is nice enough to be sixth overall in the league on turnovers (I think, will need to confirm later), but it feels somehow less than what we need to be a dominant team.

4c) On offense, Brady was one yard shy of 400 passing (399 yds) today, this coming from a 43-year-old with a season total well above 4,000 (he might end up with 4,600 yards total) and putting him in the top five passing leaders in the whole league.

4d) We had two receivers over 100 yards today: Godwin at 133 and Brown at 138. Opposing teams won't know which one to double-cover with Evans out.

4e) Ryan Succop got back into the groove with 3-for-3 on Field Goals. We will need that consistency heading into a postseason playing as visitors in unfriendly confines where every point will be vital.

5) The Bucs now await the results of tonight's season finale between Washington and Philadelphia. If the No-Names beat the Eagles, they clinch the weak NFC East division and the Bucs face them. If Washington's questionable (mayhaps WOEFUL is a better word) offense can't get past Philly, the Bucs will face the Giants in New Jersey. WHICH team would the Bucs rather face?

Bucs already played the Giants and beat them, but it was a closer game than even the score reminds us (25-23) and the Giants are slightly better balanced than the No-Names. Washington is playing with a scary-good defense, which has gotten them to this point over an offense that's banged up and low on talent at skill positions. Either way, the Bucs would be favored due to the level of talent exceeding either opponent. What will be negatives to consider is either Washington or New York will have home-field advantage during cold weather, which is STILL a serious factor to overcome for the Bucs.

Personally, Washington worries me with a defense that can play against our offense, and I can't rely on our defense dominating anyone else's offense including Washington's banged-up one. We've seen the Giants play, and I'd like to think our offense has developed since then - especially with Gronk getting better after that earlier matchup, and with Brown's addition to the WR roster - to where we can do better vs. them. So I'm hoping for a Bucs vs. Giants matchup.

6) In other NFL News: Not only did the Cleveland Browns clinch their first postseason visit since 2002 (the current longest drought), but they clinched it over their hated rivals Pittsburgh Steelers. What a day to be a Browns fan!

6a) DAMMIT MIAMI DOLPHINS YOU HAD... sigh. No, they couldn't win today, could they? Fitzmagic was hit with a COVID restriction today, and he couldn't come off the bench to save them from a Buffalo Bills team reveling in their most dominant roster since their glorious Super Bowl teams of the early 90s. Buffalo pounded Miami 56-26, ye gods, show some mercy will ya?

6b) If you're the Houston Texans, you try to figure out just what the hell you need to fix first: that bad defense or that bad offense.

6c) I get the feeling Kansas City didn't take today's game too seriously.

6d) Chicago Bears lost today, but sneaked into the playoffs due to Arizona Cardinals losing to a questionable Los Angeles Rams team that already clinched a wild card. Bears gotta go play the Saints, while the Rams gotta go play... Seattle. Interesting matchups but I doubt the wild card teams can win them...

6e) IF the Bucs defeat the NFC East team, odds are we'll be the lowest seed and thus we'll have to go to Green Bay. The Frozen Tundra. Hell of a thing to do, but Brady's played cold weather postseasons before and with luck we'll play like we did when the Bucs beat the Packers for our more prestigious regular season wins this year...

7) In college football news, Notre Dame proved they had no reason being in the playoff matchups in the first place.

7a) Also, football coaches shouldn't diss teams they're about to face the way Clemson's HC Dabney dissed Ohio State as "ranked 11th". Dudes, NO BULLETIN BOARD MOTIVATIONALS, cmon you KNOW that smack talk will bite you in the ass!

7b) No more bowl games. Half of them were cancelled due to COVID and NOTHING changed, nothing improved the lives of alumni or fans anywhere. We need a 16-team playoff system with the Division-I teams and that's it. Also, do it while there's no DAMNED PANDEMIC MAKING YOUR TEAMS SICK.

8) In pro hockey news, I only pray our Lightning players stay healthy and sane while they defend the STANLEY CUP.

9) In pro baseball news, is there any chance we can knock over a Swiss bank or something to raise the funds we need to build a Rays park in Ybor City...?

10) Next up: HOLY SH-T TAMPA BAY IT'S A FOOTBALL POSTSEASON! Details to follow.

Bucs up. Knee injury concerns up. Poll up. Gods help us.

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