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NFL analyst predicts five-point win for Buccaneers in Denver

According to Cynthia Frelund’s calculations, the Bucs will win, but won’t cover the spread

Denver Broncos v Tampa Bay Buccaneers Photo by Ronald C. Modra/Getty Images

Cynthia Frelund has made her name in the football analyst business using calculations and formulas to determine the winning chances for teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos. She took to the calculator, or whatever tools she uses, to figure out which of these teams will win in Week 3 and takes it one step further by coming up with a score prediction on top of it.

According to DraftKings SportsBook, the Bucs are 5.5 point favorites as of Saturday morning ahead of their game against the Broncos. This is down from the opening six point line they were carrying earlier this week.

The betting line isn’t going to make many Tampa fans who like to put money on these games very happy, as Frelund has your team winning by five points, right at the line to gain - so to speak.

Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

If Frelund is right, then those of you who take the points will be very unhappy while those who bet straight-up will be fine.

At the end of the day, most of Bucs Nation will be happy with a win for their team no matter how many points it comes by, and for that Frelund gives it a 59% chance of happening.

For context, Frelund’s largest projected win margin this week is nine points. She gives this projection to the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts who she predicts will defeat the Washington Football Team and New York Jets respectively.

The highest predicted win probability came in at 69% held solely by the Colts who should come away with a pretty strong win against the Jets, according to Frelund’s math.

Her formula predicts just two-point wins for the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, and Atlanta Falcons. Those teams, facing - in order - the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, and Chicago Bears also predictively have some of the lowest chances at winning as well. At 51% though, it’s the Rams who just barely figure to win their contest against the Bills in Week 3.

The same Los Angeles vs Buffalo match-up also carries the closes point spread on DraftKings as they have the Bills carrying 1.5 points into this week’s contest. Meanwhile, the Colts are 11.5 point favorites at the SportsBook against the New York Jets.

For the full breakdown of who will win and by how much, from Cynthia Frelund, head to NFL.com.