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Observations of the "Uglier Than I Am" Bucs/Vikings 12/13/20 Ugly Win w/Poll

1) I know a win is a win is a win, and given the last four games this season are ALL "must-win" games for Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the postseason with a decent Wild Card slot. This matchup versus the Vikings was the biggest of the four remaining because Minnesota was the team with the best record (an even 6-6) and had enough talent on offense and defense to make the game tough for Tampa to pull out.

1a) It didn't help that the Vikings' QB Kirk Cousins has a history of making the Bucs look bad, it didn't help that the Vikings were coming in with a solid running game with Dalvin Cook, and it didn't help that the Vikings' kicker Dan Bailey is a seasoned veteran who...

1b) ...oh dear God, poor Bailey... I mean, he's the opposing field goal kicker yeah, we're not supposed to feel bad about the other team, but... to miss EVERY kick attempt in a game, to miss a freaking CHIP SHOT inside the 20 like that... After all the horrors our Bucs' teams had with bad drafts on kickers (Aguayo, Gay) the last 4 years or more, to watch another team go through that horror, man I sympathize. Kicker is the second-most demanding job on a football squad behind QB, because the kickers do so little (kick the ball) but matter so much (a missed EXTRA POINT can lose the whole game).

1c) Granted, the Bucs won by more points (12 points) than what Bailey could have given his Vikes (10 points missed), but the MOMENTUM of the game would have been so different to where the Vikings might have done better, maybe even scored an extra TD if they were under the extra pressure to overcome the missed FGs. Especially considering how the Vikings were making tons of first downs, even gambling on fourth downs often to keep drives alive. Fortune favors the bold, they say, but misfortune with the kicking game ruined that...

2) As for how the Bucs performed today, it is where I keep the "ugly win" narrative going. Yes, the Bucs were efficient when they needed to be on offense, and yes the Bucs were good enough on defense when it mattered.

But they did not play that way the whole game long.

2a) Once again, the Bucs underperformed in the First Quarter, making 8 plays total and barely managing any offensive drive at all. The Vikings offense did better against a Bucs front seven that could not maintain quick pressure on Cousins as well as unable to shut down running lanes against Cook. By the end of the First, the Vikings were on the goal line, and scored immediately at the start of the Second Quarter. Once again, the Bucs were playing from behind...

2b) QB Tom Brady was having some difficulty throwing early, partly due to bad decisions - how did you overthrow a WIDE-OPEN Chris Godwin down the middle like that? - and barely struck paydirt, thankfully once with a deep TD strike to Scotty Miller to claim a 7-6 lead (Bailey missed the XP, remember?). From there we seemed to settle down with a better mix of runs and pass plays, nothing serious but at least getting the Bucs to a 17-6 Halftime lead to build on. Our offense stayed smooth the rest of the way, but never seemed to rev it up to the fifth gear...

2c) What mattered after Halftime was the Bucs' defense, and in that regards the team showed its vulnerabilities too often. Cook became the first RB since 2019 to garner 100 yards rushing, which helped Minnesota enough to keep the Bucs' secondary unable to focus entirely on stopping the pass... That defensive inconsistency - especially with a linebacker corps that the last six games failing to shut down the short passes - allowed the Vikings to climb back into a closer matchup 23-14 by the start of the Fourth.

2d) The statistical numbers for the Bucs' defense may say one thing - 6 sacks, the most in 8 games for example - but the performance on the field told a different story. It wasn't until the Vikings were desperate to score - in obvious Passing mode - that those sacks became plentiful. Again, if those Vikings had even ONE of Bailey's FGs make it this afternoon, it would have been a different Fourth Quarter...

3) Let's get into the statistics of the game, starting with the thing that Bucs coaches and players should feel bad about: Fourth Down Conversions. When Minnesota were 4th and short late in the game, they made the bold choice (even deep in their own territory) to go for it to keep their drives alive. And they did, going 4-for-5 on Fourth Downs. It was embarrassing. The only 4th Down Vikings couldn't convert was a 4th-and-Goal that was so far back (thanks to a big sack by backup DT Patrick O'Connor) that all it led to was another sack this time by Jason Pierre-Paul (forcing a game-clinching fumble as well).

This exposed a major problem the Bucs have had the past 4 games: the defense's inability to shut down opposing offenses' conversions. Our linebackers in particular - Devin White in particular who had such a promising first half of the season - seem unable to drop back into pass coverage well enough to stop the short throws. While our CBs have a problem covering one-on-one altogether, it's this inability to shut down the front end of the field that's hurting the Bucs more than the secondary coverage.

3a) Stat two: First Downs. Vikings ended up with 27 of them, 16 in the First Half. Again, Bucs were NOT stopping offensive drives.

3b) Time of Possession: Dear Gods, Vikings had 39 minutes to the Bucs' 20. Again, Vikings were able to drive.

3c) Field Goals. THE REAL REASON why the Vikings lost: they were able to drive often, but those drives ended without any points. Bailey's whiffs killed their chances. Ryan Succop for the Bucs meanwhile made both his tries (although HE TOO missed an XP, was the field slippery this afternoon or something?).

3d) Penalties. I WILL RANT ABOUT PENALTIES EVERY TIME. Bucs had 5-for-34... and the Vikes had 5-for-71 (!!!). Another reason the Vikings lost was due to their penalty screwups counting more. In particular, the last-second Hail Mary by Brady downfield at the end of Halftime, usually a meaningless play that rarely gets a TD (but you throw it because if you DO get that catch it can win you the game)... but Minnesota's corners flagrantly grabbed at the Bucs receiver's arms to where the refs HAD to call the Pass Interference, and because it was in the End Zone it placed the ball at the 1-yard-line with a second left so Succop could kick a FG to make it 17-6 at that Half. Penalties can KILL your team, people.

4) So the Buccaneers survived a bad win over a not-so-bad Vikings, putting the Bucs at 8-5 and in a decent spot for the Wild Card. The Saints are too far ahead (and own most tiebreakers on us) to where the Bucs have a solid chance to win the NFC South outright. The only way that will happen is if the Saints lose every game from here on out (10-6) and the Bucs win all of ours (11-5). The odds do not favor it, except...

4a) THE SAINTS LOST TODAY TO A BAD PHILADELPHIA EAGLES TEAM.

What happened? New Orleans has been starting Taysom Hill over Jameis Winston to cover for the injured Drew Brees, and Hill is quite honestly NOT a great passing QB (he can scramble for yards, though). The Saints lucked out the last two weeks playing bad teams at bad moments (Denver in particular when they had to promote a Practice Squad QB to replace their entire QB roster due to COVID). This week they played a team with a decent defense and couldn't fake it anymore.

It will be interesting if coach Sean Peyton decides to let Jameis have a go next week to restart that stalled offense...

5) In other NFL News: I think the Jets are forfeiting the rest of the season because why bother? Just take the 0-16 winless season and REVEL in it the way the 1976 Bucs, 2007 Lions, and 2017 Browns do.

5a) Houston Texans may be the team with great players at key positions and still be lousy enough on the rest of the lineup to sink to a terrible 3-win year. Just wrap up DeShaun Watson in bubblewrap now and keep him healthy for 2021, because right now all you're doing is risking another bad injury on him for a team that's NOT going to win any more games...

5b) It has been awhile since we had a dominant Super Bowl winning team return the following season and remain as equally dominant. Maybe Seattle about 7 years ago, but even they weren't as good as the Chiefs are right now.

5c) We are at the point in Pro Football we start wondering about draft positioning, and right now it's looking like Jets, Jaguars, Bengals in the top three. There's a few too many 4-9 teams fighting for the fourth overall to know for certain right now.

5d) Early in the year I was joking that the NFC East could be sending a 6-10 team to the playoffs as their division winner, which right now could be the Washington No-Names currently at 6-7. Washington IS playing well enough to make it to 9 wins, but you never know...

5e) Hate to say it, but after that disastrous game play by Cam Newton this Thursday - at one point I think he had NEGATIVE passing yardage - that he's done in the NFL. A good QB but played for too many uneven Panthers teams and just couldn't stay healthy long enough.

5f) Love to say it, but it's looking like the Patriots will not win the AFC East this year, if the other Wild Card teams (Browns, Ravens, Titans/Colts, Raiders) play better down the stretch then New England won't make the playoffs since (checks notes) 2002. ...SERIOUSLY?!?!

6) In College Football news: This is not a joke. The seriousness of COVID-19 pandemic should be enough to force the college teams to just call it short, don't hold any bowl games, just let the playoff-qualifying teams hold a postseason, and be done with the year.

6a) That said, Cincy and Coastal Carolina both deserve a shot at playing an 8-team playoff, you NCAA bastards.

6b) Auburn fired their coach as the season wrapped up. I am seeing reports they might pursue LANE FREAKING KIFFIN. I can think of 5 million Vol fans - even as your rivals - BEGGING YOU NOT TO. Hire my War Eagle mom instead, she's willing to come out of retirement and I think she can call a better gameplan than Lane Bloody Kiffin.

7) In professional basketball news, Dear Houston just trade Harden to the Detroit Pistons and watch him scream "NOOO! NOT DETROIT! ANYTHING BUT DETROIT!" just like that CIA guy in "Fistful Of Yen".

8) In professional hockey news, in order to placate the border lockdown with Canada concerning COVID-19, they will break up the conferences into ONE CANADA division, and then three US Divisions for East, Central (kinda) and Pacific. One thing will happen for certain, a Canadian team will make it to a Conference Title matchup for the first time in ages. Since, oh Lordy I forget...

8a) I think the Lightning can kill the new division... unless it's got Columbus OH in it...

9) In Mandalorian news OMG OMG OMG THEY USED THE SONIC SPACEMINE LAST EPISODE I AM HAVING ALL THE GEEKGASMS.

10) Next up: Bucs go on the road to play AT Atlanta, against a struggling Falcons squad that may want to play their hardest for interim HC Raheem Morris (the Hangry guy). This IS a rivalry game in a setting the Bucs are not good at most years, this is not an easy win folks...

Review up. Saturnalian shopping done. Poll below! IO SATURNALIA!

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