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Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts

Commissioner’s Corner: Week 12 Fantasy Football Start ‘em or Sit ‘em

RoJo makes the start list despite the inconsistent rush attack

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is averaging 27 fantasy points per game. He’s projected 21 fpts against the Chicago Bears in week 12.
| Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

2020 just keeps coming back and sucker punching everyone. If this year just couldn’t get any more messed up. The Bucs lose another one to the Los Angeles Rams, but I don’t need to remind any of you of that nor do you want me to.

If there is any joy that your fantasy football season is bringing you, then soak it up. I’m still having fun even though I am not making the playoffs for the first time in several years in any of my leagues. I going to chalk it up to inconsistency, poor drafting, and setting poor expectations from week to week.

Regardless, I’m still having fun as I’m the Commissioner in two of those leagues. There is still money to be made for those of you heading down the stretch fighting for the final playoff seeds.

Let’s take a look at last week starter’s results. If you’re paying attention, no need to tell you that it was not a good showing.

Starter Recap

Tennessee Titans v Baltimore Ravens Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

QB - Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

  • 17 fantasy points with 186 yards
  • He completed 17 out of 29 throws for 59% completions
  • He mostly relied on his legs - 51 yards on 13 carries
  • He did get 1 touchdown, but also put up a notch in the INT column
  • Tennessee allows the 27th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This was supposed to be a good matchup.
  • Tough matchup against the Steelers in week 12. Bench Jackson at all costs this week.

RB - Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

  • Corey Buschlan of The Fantasy Stock Exchange says Nick Chubb is the best running back in the league. I think he has a bit more prove in order to solidify that position.
  • Chubb scored 11 fantasy points in week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles. It was inclement weather, so that may very well have been a factor.
  • Silver lining is that he had 20 carries for 114 yards. He is no doubt the bellcow back for the Browns, and will continue to do well moving forward.
  • The issue for Chubb this week from a fantasy perspective was the lack of touchdowns and no receptions.
  • Better matchup against Jacksonville. Much better weather.
  • The Jaguars are allowing the 28th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Definitely a must start.

WR - Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

  • It’s hard to say how well Kirk will do each week with Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins getting the lions share.
  • I had Kirk as my sleeper this week. If you needed a flex option, he still got you points.
  • Seattle was ranked dead last against opposing receivers, but have been stepping it up in recent weeks. This was intended to be a good matchup for all Arizona receivers.
  • Kirk scored 9 fantasy points with 50 yards receiving on 4 catches.
  • He can still be considered a solid flex option heading down the stretch and through your league playoffs.
  • They face New England in week 12, which is allowing the 13th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

TE - Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • The game all around was a disappointment. None of the receiving options were gelling well. Not sure if that’s due to lack of communication or Brady being effective against a tough defense.
  • Gronk ended the game with only 4 FPTS on 2 receptions for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns. Even in 2020 standards, this is a sub-par performance.
  • It’s a tough call to continue to play him, but it’s tough to rely on any tight end this season. He’s still a top 10 tight end option. No reason to bench him unless you have a solid matchup with Mark Andrews or Darren Waller.

Let’s see who we plan on starting or sitting in week 12.

Quarterback

Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Start: Aaron Rodgers (QB3), Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago Bears)

Aaron Rodgers is a must start any given week. However, depending on your other quarterback you may be flip flopping starters like me. I have Rodgers along with Lamar Jackson since I was able to get Jackson in the fourth round, and Rodgers on a bargain pick in the 12th round.

I’m starting Rodgers despite the bad matchup. It’s not ideal, but the Packers are playing lights out right now, and all of his weapons are healthy. They played really well last week against the Indianapolis Colts, albeit they lost the game.

Rodgers scored 30 fpts against a much better Indianapolis Colts defense last week. He completed 27 out of 38 passes for 71% completion. He threw for 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. This is what makes him great. He can go into an opponent’s house and take them down with his arm.

Sit: Lamar Jackson (QB11), Baltimore Ravens (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)

I think I mentioned this before. Bench any offensive skill players facing up against the Steelers. It’s actually quite simple. For the reasons I mentioned above, it’s a terrible matchup. Plus, he’s missing two of his running backs and even his star tight end (Mark Andrews) is questionable, although that doesn’t seem to be a real concern.

He’s only going to make it with his legs. He ran the ball 13 times for 51 yards last week against a much softer defense. He only completed 58% of his passes, but didn’t even throw very much anyway. This is going to be a painful game for Jackson, but I do like his schedule heading into week 13 and beyond though.

Running Back

Los Angeles Rams v Tampa Bay Buccaneers Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Start: Ronald Jones II (RB12), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Since this is a Bucs related site, I have to make sure I get one of our Bucs on the list. I actually feel confident in this play, and I am actually starting him in two of my leagues this week.

Few things to consider:

  1. The Chiefs are not good at stopping the run. They’re allowing the 20th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They allowed 44 fpts against Carolina’s backs, and 38 against Josh Jacobs in week 5.
  2. RoJo has proved he can be effective with his legs, Fournette has not; nor has Fournette proven he has the hands either.
  3. Stay away from the “Honey Badger”! Just like we saw last week, the opposing secondary is keying in and playing really good zone defense on the Bucs. Brady loves to see the man-on-man coverage. He pick that apart all day. Tyrann Mathieu will shift from side to side and shut down Antonio Brown and Mike Evans. The only chance the Bucs have is to checkdown to a tight end or hit Godwin in the slot.

Sit: Raheem Mostert (RB42), San Francisco 49’ers (@ Los Angeles Rams)

I know many of you have been anxiously waiting Raheem Mostert’s return, just as I have, after Mostert went down with the high ankle sprain. Let’s first not assume that he will play, then we furthermore, we shouldn’t assume he’ll be heavily utilized.

He will definitely be needed. The Niners have to win outright to be considered for the playoff picture, especially with as tough as the NFC West is right now. His 21-day practice window just opened up, so we’ll see how he’s progressing. If he proves to be a full participant and running full speed, he very well could play.

Just temper expectations this week with him though. If you’ve been racking up points with your interim backs, keep them in this week. Don’t get too cute relying on a player that hasn’t seen the field in over 5 weeks.

Wide Receiver

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Start: Tyreek Hill (WR2), Kansas City Chiefs (@Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The Bucs secondary is just making it too easy for fantasy managers to start wide receivers against them. They have allowed the 18th most points to opposing receivers this season. As I continue to call out, it’s all due to the soft, blown, and missed coverage. Until Todd Bowles plays them tighter, opposing receivers are going to continue to have a field day each Sunday.

Hill is currently averaging 19 fpts, and a clear WR1 in all league formats. He’s scored a receiving touchdown in all but two games. He’s coming off of a 102 yard game on 11 receptions against Las Vegas racking up 27 fpts. He’s a clear starter no matter the matchup, but this week especially. He will likely even have his biggest game all season.

Tampa has allowed less than 35 fantasy points to receivers only three times all season. They’re allowing an average of 35 fpts per game. With Jamel Dean out this week, it will be up to Whitehead and Winfield to make sure “The Cheetah” doesn’t burn ‘em deep.

Sit: Corey Davis (WR35), Tennessee Titans (@ Indianapolis Colts)

Just as Michael Irvin consistently bets against the Jets on NFL Game Day Morning, you’ll continuously see a pattern from me when it comes to fantasy player options against the Colts and the Steelers this season.

Don’t play any receivers against the Colts. Even Green Bay’s receivers couldn’t score more than 34 collective fantasy points last week. If I were to assume standard 3-receiver personnel package, that’s only a little over 10 fpts per receiver which would be heavily shifted to a star receiver like Davante Adams.

Corey Davis is no Davante Adams, and he’s certainly not getting first looks from Ryan Tannehill with A.J. Brown in the picture. The Colts are allowing the 7th fewest points to opposing receivers. Don’t let Davis’ 17 fantasy point performance last week fool you into thinking he’s a starter now. He only racked up 11 fpts in the first bout against the Colts.

Tight End

Kansas City Chiefs v Las Vegas Raiders Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Start: Travis Kelce (TE1), Kansas City Chiefs (@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

I think I’m purposely putting this in this week’s post to put a reverse jinx on this Sunday’s game when the Bucs face off against the reigning Super Bowl champs at Ray Jay. We all had this game circled, and most of us even had an ‘L’ next to the Bucs on this one. Mostly due to Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes.

We talk a lot about how badly tight ends are this year in fantasy value. There has been one major exception to that conversation, and that’s been Travis Kelce. He’s been throwing up wide receiver numbers. Absolutely insane how well he’s playing this year. They should just change his designation and call it a day.

Kelce is currently averaging 19 fantasy points per game. He has scored more than 20 fpts in 6 weeks. Obviously a number one option for Mahomes. He has the third most points out of all flex (W/R/T) players, only to be beat by Davante Adams and Alvin Kamara. The Bucs defense is going to have their hands full this week, especially in that gaping hole right between the safeties.

Sit: Mark Andrews (TE3), Baltimore Ravens (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)

Here I go again, flip flopping on my starters and sitters, but it just means I’m paying attention to the matchups. If you have Andrews, you likely don’t have any other good options so please feel free to continue to play him. However, something to consider.....Robert Tonyan is my top sleeper pick this week. He’s still available in 60% of the leagues out there, and heading into a much better matchup than Andrews is.

Don’t get rid of Andrews, especially if you’re heading into the playoffs. Just consider benching him this week against a really tough Steelers defense. The Steelers have not allowed more than 9 fantasy points to tight ends in 7 out of the 10 games they’ve played.

Keep him on your bench if you can. Stream an available tight end like Tonyan or even Mike Gesicki from Miami facing the Jets this week.

Don’t forget to check out the Commissioner’s Corner Fantasy Football Podcast now available on the Bucs Nation Podcast channel on all streaming services. My guest for Episode 3 was Corey Buschlan from The Fantasy Stock Exchange.

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