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Bucs projected to defeat Los Angeles Rams by five according to ‘Super Computer’ calculations

From 10,000 simulations, the data points to a clear winner on Monday Night Football

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re a fan of seeing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do what the analytics and math say they should, then you’ll love this.

Pickswise, a probabilities, sports picks, news and betting site, has a super computer they use to help tell the future of NFL match-ups and who will - or won’t - come out on top.

According to the site,

“The Pickswise supercomputer creates pre-game probabilities using machine learning techniques as inputs to a Monte Carlo approach. This means we simulate a sporting event 10,000 times, catering for the deep range of outcomes and probabilities within a given event. We first predict the performance of each individual player based on hundreds of algorithmic variabilities which we use to run our event simulations. The probabilities themselves are dynamic in nature and are updated as new information such as team news, weather conditions, and movement within betting markets become available. We consider a value bet as one which identifies a discrepancy between our projections and the prevailing betting markets. The ability to consistently identify anomalies between our consolidated projections and sportsbook odds provides you with an increased chance of being a successful gambler and having longterm success.”

According to this super computer, and the 10,000 simulations, the Buccaneers are projected to beat the Los Angeles Rams by five tonight on Monday Night Football. An outcome fans of the Bucs would love to see obviously, especially following the New Orleans Saints’ win over the Atlanta Falcons. With a match-up against the Kansas City Chiefs looming next weekend, a win in Week 11 would be huge for Tampa Bay.

However, there is some evidence the Bucs might falter in tonight’s contest. Actually, three. Tampa Bay has lost to the three best defenses they’ve seen this season coming in the forms of the Chicago Bears and twice to the New Orleans Saints. In those three games the Buccaneers only eclipsed twenty points scored once, and have averaged fifteen points per game through those three contests.

Then, there’s the prime time struggle Bruce Arians’ squad has faced. 1-2 so far this season in prime time, the only win came against a New York Giants team which came one two-point conversion away from a potential Bucs disaster.

Another aspect of this game is the potential combined output by these two teams. Is this going to turn into a shoot out between Tom Brady and his All-Pro roster or weapons versus Jared Goff and what can be a young and vulnerable Tampa Bay secondary? Or, will we see both defenses show up and clamp down creating a low scoring final result no matter who wins?

With a 48.5 combined total projected tonight, you answer to how you see the game flow working will tell you what you think of that line. Each team is averaging enough points on the scoring end to surpass the total, but they’re also each holding opposing teams to a low enough average to fall in the under.

The Buccaneers secondary specifically has found itself more susceptible to deep passes and chunk plays than anticipated entering the 2020 NFL Season. However, the Los Angeles Rams haven’t exactly built an offensive reputation on taking advantage of these situations.

Up to now, Goff ranks 19th among all quarterbacks with just 32 deep passing attempts according to PFF. For frame of reference, he’s tied with Lamar Jackson.

Of those 32 attempts he’s completed just twelve and has one interception. While he does have three deep ball touchdown passes as well, Goff’s adjusted completion percentage (accounting for dropped passes) sits at 40.6% which is 30th in the NFL.

So, not only do the Rams not push the ball deep often, they aren’t successful on more than half of those attempts.

Do we see Sean McVay get more aggressive against what he might perceive as a secondary vulnerable to attacks? Or, does the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense take advantage of the loss of Andrew Whitworth and assault Goff all night, keeping him from every trying?

We’ll soon find out, but if you think you know the answers, then you may be smarter than a super computer!