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Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Carolina Panthers

Commissioner’s Corner: Week 11 Fantasy Football Start ‘em or Sit ‘em

Fantasy stock value drops for the Bucs this week

Bucs tight end Rob Gronkowski scored 13 fantasy points in week 10 against the Carolina Panthers
| Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

We are in week eleven of the 2020 fantasy football season. Your Commish is back with another edition of Start ‘em or Sit ‘em. Things are getting more and more interesting as we inch closer to the coveted fantasy league playoffs.

Now that the trade deadline is closed for most leagues, it’s time to start locking in your lineups if you plan on making it into the money round. Many of you are still dealing with bye weeks, injuries, and under performance. Stay the course and if you’ve made it this far, you’ll do alright in these last couple of weeks of the season.

Let’s get right into our last week’s starter recap. Some disappointments, but overall .500 is not a bad result.

Starter Recap

Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Rams Photo by Joe Scarnici/Getty Images

QB Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (vs Seattle Seahawks)

  • Rams pulled out the upset (23-16) against the Seahawks, but certainly not because of the QB. Much credit to the Rams defense and running back committee.
  • Seattle was ranked dead last against opposing quarterbacks, so this certainly was an unexpected result around the fantasy world.
  • Goff netted 7 FPTS - 27/37 = 73% completions with an average of only 8 yards per throw.
  • He did managed to throw for 302 yards, but unfortunately laid a goose egg in touchdowns.
  • While not getting any touchdowns, he did not go negative by keeping a zero in the INT column. He did lose a few points with the one fumble and three sacks.
  • Moving into week 11, the Bucs are ranked the fifth best defense against opposing quarterbacks.
  • I recommend you sit Goff this week. The defense is doing really well, especially the front seven. And unless you’re Drew Brees, don’t play a QB against the Bucs – Bench Goff

RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (@ Detroit Lions)

  • Detroit did managed to win (30-27) with a final seconds field goal. So, it was a strong game for Washington and Antonio Gibson.
  • Gibson is currently ranked the twelfth best RB. He’s a must start running back any week.
  • He scored 22 fpts in week with thirteen carries for 45 yards, and four receptions for 20 yards.
  • 2 TD - 4 rec/20 yards
  • AVG 14 fpts per game
  • Gibson and McLaurin are the only consistent factors for Washington
  • Two games with 20+ points - Double digits in all but three games
  • He’s a must start - Only concern for his fantasy value is in week 13 away at Pittsburgh

WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49’ers (@ New Orleans Saints)

  • Brandon Aiyuk has been a focal point in the offense and a reliable resource for Nick Mullens as he’s stepped for Jimmy Garroppolo.
  • He scored 20 FPTS in week ten against the Saints with seven receptions on fourteen targets for 75 yards and one touchdown.
  • The injuries to Mostert, Kittle and now McKinnon have forced a heavy reliance on the wide receivers. I fully expect Shanahan to continue to keep Aiyuk a centerpiece of the offense.
  • The Niners are on a bye this week – good matchups down the stretch though, so feel free to continue to play him as your WR2 or Flex option.

TE Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Pittsburgh remains undefeated, but unfortunately Ebron was not a focal point for the offensive attack against the Bengals.
  • Diontae Johnson received the most yardage (116), and JuJu Smith-Schuster received the most receptions (9-77), but Ben Roethlisberger hit seven different receivers spreading the field pretty extensively.
  • Ebron only scored 5 FPTS with two receptions on six targets, but no touchdowns. There was missed opportunity to pull in additional fantasy points with four missed passes, but seeing as though the highest scoring tight end was Mark Andrews with thirteen fpts, this was not a bad result for a tight end in 2020.
  • This had good matchup with the Bengals ranked 31st against tight ends. Historically, Cincinnati allowed 31 points vs. Cleveland, 30 vs. the Colts, 18 vs. Baltimore and 18 fpts vs. Philly. The point is, the Steelers are quite content relying on their receiving options beyond the tight end. Claypool, Johnson, and Smith-Schuster are among the top tier receiving corps in the league.

Now, let’s see who I have starting and sitting in week eleven at the skilled position.

Quarterback

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Start: Lamar Jackson (QB13), Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Most of you spent a fairly high quarterback pick to draft Jackson in your leagues. He was the second quarterback off the board in over 98% of redraft leagues. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been reliable from a fantasy perspective in recent weeks. Heavily reliant on this legs and not able to hit his Flex (W/R/T) options.

He’s averaging 19 fpts per game and a few short runs below 20. Granted two of those poor scored were against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, ranked first and thirds best defense respectively.

He had a solid game last week vs. New England with 22 FPTS. He was 24/34 for 249 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans are ranked 27th against opposing quarterbacks. Only three quarterbacks scored less than 20 points against them. This is a very good opportunity for a top-tier talent like Lamar Jackson to potentially be a top fantasy scorer.

Sit: Ryan Tannehill (QB9), Tennessee Titans (@ Baltimore Ravens)

Sticking with the same game, it’s quite easy to pick a fantasy sitter. If Tannehill is on your roster, he’s likely your go-to starter. If you have to play him, he will score albeit lower points than usual.

He’s been held to an average of 17.5 fantasy points per game since week 6, and his matchups are not getting any better. It’s Baltimore this week, then Indianapolis next. Baltimore’s defense is allowing the tenth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. he’s projected 220 yards and two touchdowns, but I’m going to safely assume they will lean much more on Derrick Henry’s legs given that’s where the better matchup is.

Running Back

Houston Texans v Cleveland Browns Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

Start: Nick Chubb (RB36), Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Nick Chubb is back after a long time away from the field. He’s been out with a knee injury since week four. His first appearance was a dominant one against a struggling Houston defense.

Chubb scored 18 fpts with 19 carries for 126 yards. Matthew Berry with ESPN has high hopes for him heading into week eleven. He is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He scored last week, and could’ve had a second touchdown if he didn’t help the team kneel down the game.

The game is in Cleveland this week, so I like the home field advantage on this one. As we also heard Michelle Magdziuk of Ball Blast Football say in her start/sit picks, Kareem Hunt plays better when Chubb is playing. So, I have to agree with Michelle and go with the Cleveland backfield this week, led by Chubb regardless how well the Eagles are ranked against opposing running backs.

Sit: Ronald Jones II (RB4),

I will actually put stock in the OPRK for this matchup. The Rams have a dominant front four led by Aaron Donald. I think they will do just about anything to make sure RoJo does not break out another run like he did against the Panthers.

Rams are ranked as the fourth best defense against running backs. The only time they allowed more than 25 cumulative points to opposing backs was in weeks 1-2. Since then, they haven’t allowed more than 17 aggregate fantasy points. Week seven against the Bears, they only allowed eleven.

I know you want to jump on the bandwagon right away, but if this game plays out like games of past, Leftwich and Arians will change the game plan. They absolutely need to get the ground game going, but the Bucs will need to rely on Brady’s ability to move the ball around.

Wide Receivers

Buffalo Bills v Arizona Cardinals Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Start: Christian Kirk (WR34), Arizona Cardinals (@ Seattle Seahawks)

Kirk is my sleeper pick of the week, and it’s all about the matchup. The Seahawks, or as my friend Corey called them on the Commissioner’s Corner Podcast “The Seachickens,” are ranked dead last against wide receivers.

Seattle secondary will be too busy making sure DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t get behind them that it will leave a wide open field for Christian Kirk this week. He’s averaging twelve fpts per game. He scored 23 points against Miami, 22 in Dallas, and more importantly we’ve already seen him score 20 fpts against Seattle in week seven.

I really like this play this week, although it’ll be based on who else you have on your roster. He’s more of a Flex option, reaching for WR2 status. He’ll net results either way though.

Sit: Wide Receivers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Just as I mentioned with Ronald Jones. I think the Bucs will rely on Tom Brady’s ability to move the ball around. I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit all ten receivers this week. No one will get more than five catches, and who knows who will get in the end zone. It’s touchdown roulette.

Evan Winters probably made the best realization that the Rams will likely keep Ramsey on one side of the field. He will not be stuck on Evans, Godwin, or Brown. This is dangerous for Bucs receiver owners this week since they will definitely be shifting players from side to side each play.

Expect heavy Gronk usage this week. I really like that play more than Evans or Godwin. I also think they’ll end up getting Fournette and McCoy involved in the passing game with screens and swing routes.

Tight End

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Carolina Panthers Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Start: Rob Gronkowski (TE10), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Speaking of Gronk.......

Checkdown, checkdown, checkdown. I’m betting that will be Brady’s strategy heading into a very tough game against the Rams at home on Monday Night Football.

I know I’ve played Gronk before and have been a little short, but he’s always come out with positive points. He’s now a top ten fantasy tight end and the way this season’s looking at the tight end position, as long as the matchup is in the green...you play him. Don’t bank on a bunch of points with any tight end this year.

Gronkowski scored double digits in five weeks now, including a thirteen fpts outing against the Panthers where he scored the touchdown, even though he only caught two balls all day. I fully expect to find him in the end zone this week against a Rams defense that is unfavorable at every other skill position. They’re ranked 17th against opposing tight ends, so I’ll take that matchup.

Sit: Jonnu Smith (TE4), Tennessee Titans (@ Baltimore Ravens)

If you have a skill player matched up against the Colts, Ravens, or Steelers defense you have to evaluate the start status. Smith was highly productive earlier in the season, but we’ve seen his reception count go way down along with his fantasy numbers.

For a tight end in 2020, he’s not doing badly overall. He’s still averaging 10 fpts, but that’s only because of his 21 fpts outing in week five, and 24 points he got in Jacksonville. As much as I like having him on my roster, I’m going to look at other options this week.

Baltimore is ranked fourteenth against opposing tight ends. I think we’ll see that Tannehill will be forced out of the pocket a lot, but the Ravens are a top-five defense against receivers. The Titans will likely resort to leaning on Derrick Henry, and why not. He’s likely the only player that can get anything going for a team that is desperate to get back to their winning ways.

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