It’s been a wild ride so far for fantasy owners. Injuries, bad weeks, more injuries, and not to mention the plethora of committees in the skill position.
Last week we witnessed one of the biggest beat downs of the year. The Saints took down the Bucs at home 38-3. Even if you had them losing that game, no one could’ve imagined them losing that badly. This impacted Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones II, and Tom Brady owners. Just painful all around!
That just values Marpet as an offensive lineman. If he’s ever out again, you bench Tom Brady at all costs. I would also agree if the same were to happen to Jensen and Cappa as well. Hopefully they’ll find help on the blind side, because it seems that Donovan Smith is just not getting the job done.
In other news. If you haven’t heard already, the Commissioner’s Corner is now available for your earholes. Our Commissioner’s Corner Fantasy Football Podcast show is now avialable on all podcast streaming services on the Bucs Nation podcast channel. Subscribe today.
This week has some really exciting matchups. Some the pendulum is swung completely to one side, and others it’s right down the middle. We hung our tricorne on the OPP rankings in this week’s start/sit picks.
Like we always do, let’s review how well we did in our picks from last week. Some good, and some bad......actually, one was absolutely terrible.
Allen is arguably the best at his position this year. He scored 39 FPTS at home against Seattle. He’s averaging 26 fantasy points per game. He is now the only Bills quarterback ever to have three (and counting) regular season games with 400+ passing yards and three scores. Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly only had two of such games.
In week 9, Allen had an astounding 81% completion percentage completing 31 of 38. He scored 4 total touchdowns - three passing and one that he rushed in himself. He threw for 415 yards and laid a goose egg in the INT column. This is text book how you become a QB1 option in fantasy.
I’m fairly confident at this point that it won’t matter which defense he’s playing against. Of course the Seahawks are dead last in pass protection, but unless you have Rodgers, Wilson, or Murray on your bench, he’s a must start for the remainder of the year.
Aside from all the speculation and uncertainty around his play time, it’s seems Sean McDermott is finally feeling confident to give Moss full time rushing duties. What once was Devin Singletary’s role, is now Zack Moss’ to lose. He’s a downhill runner with tons of upside as a rookie. He’s trusted in the red zone, and being a good pass catching back increases his value.
Moss scored 12 FPTS on 9 carries for 18 yards and 2 receptions for 30. A touchdown saved the day for fantasy owners. He’s still sitting on the wire in most leagues as he hasn’t show anything until late. He also has some really tough matchups down the stretch, so his trust factor remains low.
The Bills head into their bye week next week, and then they have some mean matchups against the Chargers, Niners, and the Steelers. All of which have great defenses against the rush. If you need him, might only be a good RB3/Flex option. This week is likely his last week with any upside.
This was just a flat out unexpected dud. It was the A.J. Brown show all game in week 9. I tested the waters, and for all intents and purposes the water was luke warm. Now I sit him, or just drop him altogether. As Adam Rank stated, this was a week that we all thought he was going to shine, but instead he was clearly non-existent.
So, honestly I’m coming in a little late with this post so I’m already able to comment on his week 10 performance. The Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts 34-17 on Thursday Night Football. They did however manage to get Davis involved. Albeit in minor fashion, he still saw action. He caught 5 receptions for 67 yards, but didn’t reel in a touchdown.
Davis has shown value when the Titans offense is clicking as it did in weeks 7 and 8. He scored 15 and 26 fpts respectively. If you don’t need to play him, leave him on the wire or on your bench. No need to risk your playoff run guessing if how effective he will be, or if at all.
Logan Thomas is a touchdown dependent tight end like most are this year. He had runner runner touchdowns before Washinton’s bye week in week 8. So, since he didn’t get into the end zone he wasn’t a reliable fantasy option.
Like I mentioned on the Commissioner’s Corner Podcast, if you have a tight end that is bringing you over 50 yards and 3-4 catches you’re honestly in good shape. The position is just not bringing in a ton of points this season.
Thomas scored 5 fpts with 3 receptions for 28 yards. He has a spattering of really tough matchups including a week 13 battle with Pittsburgh. Until we see some consistency and success with Alex Smith returning, we might want to temper expectation with any of their receiving options.
Week 10 is here and we have some good matchups. It’s all about the OPP baby.....let’s take a look at my starting picks.
The matchups could not get any better for Goff this week. The Seahawks are ranked dead last against opposing quarterbacks. Josh Allen put on a clinic against them in week 8, so the same expectations now fall to Jared Goff.
Goff is scoring an average of 19 fantasy points per game. He had a bad week against the Niners in week 6 with completing only 50% of his passes and throwing an interception, but he still managed 18 fpts with 2 touchdowns.
Like I mentioned, he’s got the best matchup a fantasy owner can ask for. Goff owners should take full advantage of this and put him in. Unfortunately there are about 43% of you that will not since he’s still sitting on the waiver wire. We saw one of the largest upticks this week with +23 acquisition, so owners are proving to be wise to the matchup.
I genuinely feel bad for Joe Burrow. Just when things started going really well for him, he had to face Pittsburgh. I mean, it’s expected since they’re in the same division, but it’s just a shame. The Steelers have the number four ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks.
Burrow played a great game three weeks ago against Cleveland scoring 40 fpts, so if you were an owner that jumped on that waiver you’ll regret it if you play him this week. Bench him at all costs. Pittsburgh has only not allowed more than 18 FPTS all season long!
Antonio Gibson has been a ray of sunshine for the Football Team (so weird to say it like that). Him and Terry McLaurin are the only reliable fantasy options on the team. I’d like to think that Logan Thomas could be as well but only if the matchup is favorable.
Gibson has scored in every game except three. He ran for over 100 yards in week 7 against the Cowboys, and appears to be a very consistent passing option as well. Last week he scored 12 fpts against the Giants on 6 carries for 20 yards, and 3 receptions for 35. Bonus, he got in the end zone.
He’s heading into Detroit who is currently ranked dead last against opposing running backs. This is a great matchup, and he could easily reach top points against all flex players (W/R/T). Projected at 16 fpts, I think they got it right. Start Gibson in all formats, especially PPR.
The Rams are ranked 9th against opposing running backs. This is less than ideal for the returning rusher. He’s been out with an injured foot, so expect rising start Deejay Dallas to step in since Hyde is also out with an injury. The Rams have only allowed more than 19 fpts to opposing backs twice this year.
I think you can still keep him as the Seahawks do still have one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. He could also be a good trade token for those of you still trying to squeeze in a last trade before the deadline this week. He’s projected to score 14 fpts, but temper expectations. I’m predicting he’ll get light number of snaps and split with Dallas. He won’t hit pay dirt, and his rushing yardage will be held to a minimum.
Start: Brandon Aiyuk (WR35), San Francisco 49’ers (@ New Orleans Saints)
Brandon Aiyuk was not on anyone’s preseason radar heading into the 2020 fantasy football draft. He was drafted in rounds 12-13 due to preseason rankings. In one of my leagues that I manage, he’s been dropped and added three separate times, and he still remains on only 70% of rosters. So perhaps he’s a bit of a sleeper.
For a short time, the Niner’s were dropping like flies. Raheem Mostert and George Kittle are still out with injuries, which bodes well for the young wide receiver out of Arizona State. He’s scoring an average of 13 fpts per game. He’s hit double digits 4 times, with a big game against Seattle last week scoring 23 fpts on 8 receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown.
The Saints are 18th against opposing wide receivers. If you rewatch the Bucs/Saints game, you’ll see that Antonio Brown and Mike Evans were wide open on several plays and not locked down in man coverage like many thought. Marshon Lattimore is not having a stellar season and can be exposed. The Saints defense gave up 55 fantasy points to wide receivers twice this season.
Listen, I really like Thielen. He helped me get into the championship game last year. He’s amazing when the Vikings offense is clicking, but when they’re not, he falls extremely short. Kirk Cousins has not been having a great season. He’s currently ranked 22nd and extremely limited in weapons. He does have Dalvin Cook though.
I fully expect the week 10 matchup against the Bears to be the Dalvin Cook show. The Bears are allowing the second least points to fantasy receivers. There are only three games they allowed more than 30 fantasy points to. Spread that across three receivers, that’s less than 10 points each. In week 5 against the Bucs, they only allowed a total of 29 fpts.
Thielen only scored 5 fpts in consecutive weeks against weaker pass coverage defenses. This is just too tough of a matchup to trust any productivity. Even if you bench him now, take a look at the matchups in weeks 14, 15, and 16 when we’re all fighting for the championship. It won’t be easy.
Start: Eric Ebron (TE15), Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Steelers are on fire this year with Big Ben being back at the helm. Roethlisberger’s completion percentage has remained fairly consistent. Fantasy owners love to see consistency, especially when it comes to the skill players getting the ball.
The Steelers do have a lot of weapons including Claypool, Juju, Johnson and Washington. Ebron has definitely been part of Big Ben’s consistency factor averaging 8 fpts per game, but has scored consecutive double digits the past three weeks. He’s been the go-to tight end this season, and with Vance McDonald being out on the Reserve/COVID 19 list, it means more snaps for Ebron.
The biggest story is that the Bengals are ranked dead last against opposing tight ends. This matchup is so ideal and I have no doubt Randy Fichtner, Pittsburgh Offensive Coordinator, will want to exploit it.
Sit: Jared Cook (TE15), New Orleans Saints (vs. San Francisco 49’ers)
We’ve been talking a lot about Saints players a lot in recent weeks. Mostly due to the Bucs game, but also in fantasy value. That’s actually a downward trend for Saints fantasy owners. With Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders all healthy, Jared Cook’s value is now diminished. The Saints have also discovered Adam Trautman as a reliable red zone tight end.
Brees threw it to 11 different receivers before the half last week against the Bucs. That’s ridiculous. The Niners are ranked 6th against opposing tight ends, so it’s a terrible matchup for Jared Cook owners. Cook only scored 3 fpts against the Bucs last week. He’s definitely touchdown dependent, so I would fully expect the Niners defense to completely remove the Saints tight ends as a factor.
Thanks to all the readers of the Commissioner’s Corner. I am humbled that you’ve chosen to use this as one of your many tools to set your weekly lineups. I may not be accurate from week to week, but no one is. It’s just really exciting to share passions with you all as fellow fantasy owners.
Don’t forget to check us out on the Bucs Nation Podcast channel. Instead of reading your fantasy highlights, you can listen to them. Each week I’ll be joined by a different guest and breaking down your fantasy football lineups. Check it out today!