After 10 games of the 2018 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3 – 7. Last year, the Bucs were 4 – 6 after 10 games. There are many good reasons to fire head coach Dirk Koetter – many. Yet, is there any reason to keep Koetter? This season has been a massive disappointment, especially after racing out to a 2 – 0 record to start the 2018 season.
Offensive Production
Away from the feelings, I want to know if Koetter’s offense improved between 2017 and 2018.
TB Buccaneers Offense |
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Yards Per Game |
Points Per Game |
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Year |
Total |
Rank |
Pass |
Rank |
Run |
Rank |
Points |
Rank |
2017 |
363.5 |
9th |
272.9 |
4th |
90.6 |
27th |
20.9 |
18th |
2018 |
458.5 |
1st |
361 |
1st |
97.5 |
27th |
26.7 |
8th |
Diff |
+ 95 |
+88.1 |
+6.9 |
+ 5.8 |
TB Bucs |
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Red Zone Efficiency |
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Year |
Rate |
Rank |
2017 |
49.06% |
24th |
2018 |
57.50% |
17th |
Across the board, the offensive has improved. Moving the ball was not a problem in 2017, but scoring and scoring in the Red Zone were a problem. The team vastly improved scoring in 2018. Also, the Red Zone scoring has improved.
Offensive Line Production
Recall, GM Jason Licht wanted to improve his trench warfare on both sides of the ball. Fixing the offensive line would appear to be a priority. Although OL Ali Marpet was a top-10 center last year, Licht went after another top-10 center in Ryan Jensen. That would shift Marpet to the left guard position, which was vacated when Kevin Pamphile was not re-signed. A gamble occurred when Licht did not address the starting right guard position after releasing JR Sweezy by leaving the position to 2016’s fifth rounder Caleb Benenoch and 2018’s late third round selection Alex Cappa.
TB Buccaneers Offense |
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Run Blocking |
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Football Outsiders |
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Year |
Overall |
Power |
Rank |
Stuff |
Rank |
2nd Lvl |
Rank |
Open |
Rank |
2017 |
16th |
65% |
12th |
20% |
17th |
0.93 |
31st |
0.41 |
30th |
2018 |
28th |
75% |
7th |
26.30% |
32nd |
1.16 |
22nd |
0.63 |
22nd |
Diff |
– 12 |
10% |
+ 5 |
– 6.3% |
– 15 |
0.23 |
+ 9 |
0.22 |
+ 8 |
The run blocking has failed miserably despite upgrading both the left guard and center positions. Tampa is ranked last in Stuff metrics, meaning the running back is stopped at the line of scrimmage or behind it. Despite getting tagged often behind the line of scrimmage, Tampa’s running backs (mainly Peyton Barber) break tackles to get into the 2nd level as well as oddly timed blocking that worked to get the running backs into the 2nd level.
TB Bucs |
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Pass Blocking |
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Football Outsiders |
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Year |
Rank |
Sacks |
Adj Sack Rate |
2017 |
16th |
40 |
6.50% |
2018 |
15th |
27 |
7.10% |
Diff |
1 |
0.60% |
Although the current raw sack and ranking for 2018 reveal they are the better pass blocking unit, the adjusted sack rate states the pass blocking regressed.
In 10 games of 2018, the Bucs’ pass blocking unit has been ranked below 10th half of the time: 13th in game 6, 19th in game 7 and 8, 17th in game 9, and 15th in game 10.. Last year, in 11 games of 2018 (both C Marpet and RT Dotson got injured in game 11), the Bucs’ pass blocking group ranked below 10th twice: 14th in game 1 and 11th in game 9.
Both the run blocking and pass blocking has regressed for the Swashbucklers in 2018. Yet, the production still improved in yards passing and scoring. That is an impressive accomplishment.
Turnovers
TB Bucs |
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Giveaway |
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ESPN |
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Year |
INT |
Rank |
Fum |
Rank |
Total |
Rank |
2017 |
14 |
11th |
13 |
4th |
27 |
6th |
2018 |
23 |
1st |
6 |
6th |
29 |
1st |
Diff |
9 |
-7 |
2 |
When reading Giveaway stats, positive numbers means more turnovers and negative numbers mean fewer turnovers. Tampa has thrown nine more interceptions in 2018 in 10 games than they did in all of 2017. The turnover total in 2018 has also eclipsed the total turnover in 2017, and there is still six more games left to play.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has started seven games and thrown 12 interceptions. Jameis Winston has started three games and thrown 11 interceptions. There is an old cliché that states, "If you have to play two quarterbacks, then you have none."
Again, despite the turnover flaws, the offense has improved in passing yards and scoring between the two seasons.
Conclusion
In comparing the 2018 offensive season with the 2017 offensive season, the run and pass blocking has regressed as well as the interception rates of the quarterbacks. Despite these flaws, the offensive passing game, scoring, and Red Zone scoring have all improved. In fact, Tampa’s passing game is by far the best in the league with a per game production of 361.0 yards; the second ranked Kansas City Chiefs produce 318.5 yards per game.
This is where I believe Koetter is invaluable. Offensively, he is able to generate production and clean up after Licht’s acquisition or lack thereof for the offensive line and for the inconsistency of a kicker. Tampa does not have a sound quarterback right now. In 2017, Winston threw 11 interceptions in 13 games started. Winston has thrown that equal amount in starting three games and coming in relief for two other games.
Strip away emotions. The offense does not need a complete rebuild. It needs a couple of tweaks. Fix that offensive line then the Red Zone offense will continue to improve and the quarterback does not feel nor see ghosts. Afterwards, the rest of the resources can go to improving the defense and a better kicker.
Rebuilding takes a long while. Rebuilding on the fly can keep the hopes of being competitive far sooner. Keep Koetter… or lose Koetter, but keep everyone else (save OL coach Warhop). Try to keep as much as the offensive intact and tweak towards perfection. In 2018, we are still searching for a competent kicker and an average defense.
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