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Doug Martin's at his best when healthy, by a lot

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

When healthy, Tampa Bay's Doug Martin is in Pro Bowl mode. Early reports from camp this offseason have been that Doug is just as spry as he was last offseason. Usually, coming in healthy in OTA's bodes well for any player, but especially so for running back Doug Martin. Two of his seasons resulted in a Pro Bowl. One season was cut short.  The only offseason where Martin did not come into in football shape was the 2014 season, recovering from a torn labrum.

Using total yards accrued does not correctly describe Martin's season and sometimes average can be skewed if the sample is small.

Doug Martin
2012-2015 Rushing (Yds and Avg)
Year Att Yards Yds/Att
2012 319 1454 4.56
2013 127 456 3.59
2014 134 494 3.69
2015 288 1402 4.87

From the table above, it is easy to say that Martin had two abysmal seasons when viewing only total yards and average.  Now, let us factor in games played.

Doug Martin
2012-2015 Rushing
Year Games Att Yard Yds/Att Yds/Gm
2012 16 319 1454 4.56 90.88
2013 6 127 456 3.59 76.00
2014 11 134 494 3.69 44.91
2015 16 288 1402 4.87 87.63

Focusing only on yards per game average, Doug was good to above average in three out of four seasons. His 76.00 yards per game in 2013 could have possibly landed him in the top 10 of the rushers in the league as one of the top 5 running backs was Alfred Morris with 79.7 yards per game average.

Martin, 4 year rushing chart

This graph should make Martin's production in respect to yards per game to be easily identifiable.

Median Production

Although averages are one way to find consistency in a player, sometimes one or two games in a 16 game set or smaller can alter the actual perception of consistency or production, good or bad. This is where I introduce the median stat. Median is the middle most number of a set of entries, which is not swayed by one or two outliers in production.

What would be ideal is to have the average and median match up in production.

Doug Martin
Avg and Medians
Season Average Median Median - Avg Highest Avg in One Game
2012 4.6 4.05 -0.55 10.0
2013 3.6 4.25 0.65 5.0
2014 3.7 3.2 -0.5 6.9
2015 4.9 4.25 -0.65 8.7

In using medians, we notice that Martin had his best seasons in 2013 and 2015. 2013 was the only season where the median-average differential was positive, meaning there was a game or two that games production was much lower than the median.

Martin, 2013 Box (Revised)

All we know is this, when healthy, Doug is able to produce over 4 yards per game in respect to median statistic and the yards per game average is at least 76 yards per game. Martin is coming healthy into this season and in football shape. This can only spell good things for the Bucs and the growing legend of the Dougernaut.

Dougernaut

Predict the Dougernaut's Yards per Game average for the upcoming 2016 season, a more accurate description of a running back's production -€” but terrible for fantasy football where availability is the most important factor.