clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Reviewing the Buccaneers' 2015 offensive drives

New, comments
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

This is the year end review of our offensive drive analysis series of the 2015 season. Here is the 2015 Defensive Year End Drive Analysis Review, just in case you missed it.

In 2012, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had set an offensive record in yards accrued on offense with 5,280 yards. After a dismal display of ineptness in 2014, first year offensive coordinator (OC) Dirk Koetter had surpassed that record. While this feat is a great achievement, it is much greater when put into perspective of where the offense finished in 2014.

2014 Offensive Stats

2014 Offensive Year End Drive Analysis

TB Offense vs Opposing Defense
2014 - 2015
Team Drive Plays Yards Offensive Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
2014 Avg Before Bye 59.33 302.00 17.67 0.67 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.83 0.17 3.67
After Bye 60.70 268.80 15.00 1.10 0.40 0.20 0.70 0.70 0.00 3.10

My conclusion for that article was:

Let us recap the situation, Lovie told OC Tedford not to return for the final five games and Glennon was not reinserted into the lineup after the season was lost, in spite of producing better numbers. Anyone else get the feeling Lovie was not loving the offense like he loves his defense? The offensive line remake was an epic fail of the HD DVD would survive proportions that hurt both the passing and rushing offense. Mind you, Lovie is in charge of the 53 man roster. We drafted a RB who cannot run as a running back instead of using that pick for help on the offensive line. Our offense regressed after the bye week, but the higher scoring coincides with Glennon at the helm.

The Bucs have hired an established OC in Dirk Koetter this offseason, but the offensive outlook remains a mystery as Lovie is conjuring up a new offense. After what we fans went through with the offense last year, I do not want Lovie involved in any offensive planning. I have no confidence with Lovie being involved with the offense after realizing that he did not want Tedford to return to give the offense some kind of spark along with giving Glennon any games to play at the end of the year to see what we have in Glennon or possibly raise his trade stock. Not only that, but we did not fire the offensive line coach in charge of the pathetic performances. Instead, we fired the assistant offensive line coach.

While the defensive outlook foresees a top 10 defense, the offense is a land of confusion, which includes on what to do with the first pick in the 2015 NFL draft. What should be clear cut is very murky. There should not be a smokescreen with the first overall pick, but there is.

Apparently, I was wrong on my forecasting of both the offense and defense as their fates swapped. Lovie did not meddle with the offense as he did in 2014, but rather diverted that attention to the defense. That sentence alone probably can explain why the forecasting flipped.

As for the draft pick, it was QB Jameis Winston, as I had hoped.  It also helped that then OC Dirk Koetter came away very impressed with Winston like Dirk came away impressed with RB Doug Martin to retain him.

Building a Case for Jameis Winston

Doug Martin, Bell Cow

2015 v 2014

Tampa Bay Bucs Offense
2014 v 2015, Basic Stats
Year Passing Rushing Points For
Rank Yards Rank Yards Rank Points
2014 25 206.1 29 85.9 29 17.3
2015 17 240.8 5 135.1 20 21.4
Difference with Respect to 2015 8 34.7 24 49.2 9 4.1

And here are some charts to quickly identify the improvements.

Pass Yds, 14 v 15

Rushing Yds, 14 v 15

Points, 14 v 15

Across the board, the offense improved in all aspects. There are significant signs of progression in rankings for passing and points for, but a magnanimous leap for the rushing game. The run game can be attributed to a healthy Doug Martin and a better utilized Charles Sims, with the former becoming the second leading rusher in the league as well as lead the league in broken tackles and yards after contact.

These productions occurred because the offensive line had overachieved under new offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter.

Tampa Bay Bucs
Football Outsiders Offfensive Line Rankings
Year Run Blocking Rank Open Field Rank Stuffed Rank Stuffed Percentage Pass Rank Sacks
2014 32 13 32 0.23 29 52
2015 9 1 13 0.20 14 27
diff 23 12 19 0.03 15 25
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2014

There is so much improvement and plenty to say about the improvements from the chart that I can only let your eyes soak them in. But I do want to identify that the Stuffed Percentage remained high, and was aided to be improved because RB Martin had the most broken tackles. The running backs, though, revealed how great they can be when the run blocking is improved!

Here is an article link showing the positive outlook for the offensive line during the pre-season:

Will Dirk Koetter help the Bucs offensive line?

Quarterly Break Down: Drive Analysis

Quarter 1:  Wins - 1, Losses - 3

2015 TB Offense vs Opposing Defense, QTR 1
Team Drive Plays Yards Off Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
Ten 12 63 225 14 1 0 1 1 0 0 3
NO 12 64 356 26 1 1 1 0 1 0 4
Hou 13 60 303 9 2 0 1 0 0 0 3
Car 13 78 389 23 1 0 0 0 3 0 4
Totals 50 265 1273 72 5 1 3 1 4 0 14
Avg 12.50 66.25 318.25 18.00 1.250 0.250 0.750 0.250 1.000 0.000 3.500
Percent of drives over total number of drives 10.0% 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% 28.0%

Red Zone efficiency:  46.2%  (6 for 13)

3rd down efficiency:  30.6%  (17 for 56)

INT:  7

The first game was against Tennessee was deplorable. Against Houston, the offense was shut out in the second half, but that was due to missing three field goals in the second half. Second half problems continued as the Bucs offense could not keep up with the Panther's production on offense. It was a rough start, but Doug Martin had his first hundred yard game against Carolina.

Quarter 2:  Wins - 2, Losses 2.

2015 TB Offense vs Opposing Defense, QTR 2
Team Drive Plays Yards Off Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
Jax 11 64 336 30 2 2 1 0 0 0 5
Was 9 63 399 23 0 1 1 2 0 1 5
Atl 10 66 344 23 0 1 1 2 0 0 4
NYG 11 64 409 18 1 0 2 1 1 0 5
Totals 41 257 1488 94 3 4 5 5 1 1 19
Avg 10.25 64.25 372.00 23.50 0.750 1.000 1.250 1.250 0.250 0.250 4.750
Percent of drives over total number of drives 7.3% 9.8% 12.2% 12.2% 2.4% 2.4% 46.3%

Red Zone efficiency:  40.0%  (6 for 15)

3rd down efficiency:  48.9%  (24 for 49)

INT:  0

The second quarter brought about an abrupt change in QB Jameis Winston as he did not throw a single interception in this quartet set. Although the offense dipped in Red Zone efficiency, this quarter was the highest output out of all four quarterly reports. One would believe if an offense can score 23 points, then it would give the team a greater chance to secure a win. The defense nearly blew the Jacksonville game. The defense then imploded against Washington, but to be fair, the offense only put up six points in the second half. A similar fate repeated itself against the Giants, but the Bucs had to claw back to within two points before the game got away.

Quarter 3:  Wins - 3, Loss - 1

2015 TB Offense vs Opposing Defense, QTR 3
Team Drive Plays Yards Off Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
Dal 11 69 365 10 2 2 1 0 0 0 5
Phi 12 73 493 38 1 1 0 2 3 0 7
Indy 10 65 331 12 1 1 2 1 0 0 5
Atl 10 66 393 23 0 1 0 1 2 0 4
Totals 43 273 1582 83 4 5 3 4 5 0 21
Avg 10.75 68.25 395.50 20.75 1.000 1.250 0.750 1.000 1.250 0.000 5.250
Percent of drives over total number of drives 9.3% 11.6% 7.0% 9.3% 11.6% 0.0% 48.8%

Red Zone efficiency:  75.0%  (9 for 12)

3rd down efficiency:  50.0%  (26 for 52)

INT:  4

This quartet of games had a very odd production as it featured extremes, a high of 38 points and a near low of 10 points scored. The third quarter average for offensive scoring was less than the second quarter, but the team found more wins in this set. From the stats, it seems the offense made the most of their opportunities with a high rate for Red Zone efficiency. If it were not for the defense, then the Dallas game would have painted a disastrous image.

The only loss came against the Colts. In that game, the Bucs had a lead at halftime, 12 - 6.  The offense failed to score any points in the second half and lost the game, Bucs 12 - Colts 25.

Quarter 4:  Win - 0, Losses - 4

2015 TB Offense vs Opposing Defense, QTR 4
Team Drive Plays Yards Off Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
NO 9 54 311 17 1 1 0 0 2 0 4
StL 11 80 507 23 1 0 1 2 1 0 5
Chi 12 56 369 21 1 0 0 2 1 0 4
Car 10 72 356 10 0 2 0 2 0 0 4
Totals 42 262 1543 71 3 3 1 6 4 0 17
Avg 10.50 65.50 385.75 17.75 0.750 0.750 0.250 1.500 1.000 0.000 4.250
Percent of drives over total number of drives 7.1% 7.1% 2.4% 14.3% 9.5% 0.0% 40.5%

Red Zone efficiency:  54.5%  (6 for 11)

3rd down efficiency:  37.7%  (17 for 45)

INT:  4

The offense fell back down in the concluding quarterly report. This was the lowest output in points per game average, but similar to the first quarter. An oddity to denote is that the team did come away with one win in the first Quarterly report, whereas the team came up buttercup. Red Zone efficiency was the second best rating, but that third down efficiency third best out of four samples. But the turnovers may have been a bigger factor, which will be exposed clearer in the next section.

Quarterly Break Down: Yards, Scoring, and Turnovers

Tampa Bay Bucs
2015 Basic Stats (Yards, Points, and Turnovers )
Quarterly Pass Rush Scoring TO PPGA Pt. Diff Wins
1 226.5 107.25 18 10 25.75 -7.75 1
2 223.75 156.5 23.5 4 27 -3.5 2
3 229.5 166.25 20.75 5 16.75 4 3
4 282.5 110.5 17.75 8 29.75 -12 0

Picking up from the 4th quarterly report and pondering why it had not won any games, we notice two factors that resulted into no wins: high turnover rate and the defense nearly allowing double the points to be scored from the 3rd quarterly report. Recall, the first quarterly and fourth quarterly reports have similar offensive scoring output.

So what patterns can we see from the aforementioned chart. When our run game is producing around 150 yards, then the offensive scoring is more points than when it does not reach the 150 yards or more plateau. My hope is that Koetter's stat guys see this trend and emphasizes more on improved run blocking because the team can secure more wins in this fashion than being more of a passing fancy.

In the final four games of the season, the passing game was significantly at its highest. It was, on average, 53 more passing yards per game in the final four game set than the second highest output average. There is a steady increase from each quarterly report in the passing production, but a massive jump in the concluding quarterly report. Was this by design or another factor?

TB Bucs, 2015
Quarter 4 Scoring Average
Team 1st Half 2nd Half
Opp 18.75 11
Bucs 5.75 12
diff -13 1

Apparently, it was because the Bucs fell behind in the first half and probably necessitated the need to pass more. The defense allowing a 13 point deficit, on average, per game is probably what altered and limited the run game.

Conclusion

TB Offense vs Opposing Defense
2014 vs 2015
Team Drive Plays Yards Offensive Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
2014 Avg 11.38 60.19 281.25 16 0.938 0.438 0.5 0.625 0.75 0.063 3.313
2015 Avg 11 66.06 367.88 20 0.938 0.813 0.75 1 0.875 0.063 4.5

In totality, the Bucs' offense made significant improvements across the board that lead to a record breaking stat in yards accrued as well as sending three Pro Bowl offensive players in RB Doug Martin, LG Logan Mankins, and rookie QB Jameis Winston. The offensive line produced much better than its 2014 counterpart with two second round rookies, two replacement starters due to long term injury, and a rotating ensemble for the intermittent injuries.  Injuries also plagued the WR corps as the Vincent Jackson, Louis Murphy, Kenny Bell, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins fell to injuries, WR1, WR3, WR4, and TE1, respectively.

Yet in breaking down the season into quarters, we can identify trends, both positive and negative ones. The team was a scoring juggernaut in the second quarterly report where QB Winston threw no interceptions. With a strong run game around 150 yards per game improves the chances of winning a game, possibly due to controlling the clock with a strong run game. Turnovers and a deficiency in third down conversions marred the progression of the offense from the middle of the season to its conclusion.

If this is what year one is with a rookie quarterback at the helm who went to the Pro bowl and one preseason roster WR for most of the season, then the future looks bright in the second year. One caveat, though, the organization needs to re-sign Pro Bowl RB Doug Martin. The Bucs' organization was very fortunate to have snatched up, then OC, Dirk Koetter, as he was the perfect coach for a discombobulated offense with a plethora of rookies starting on offense, as many as five rookies on the field at the same time.