There are many, many ways to try to predict NFL teams' win totals. None of them work really well, or more people would be making absurd amounts of money betting on sports, but they're all a little valuable. Here's one we don't talk about a lot: Pythagorean expectations.
Projected 2016 season based on Pythagorean expectations. Only 6 NFC teams expected to crack .500 on the year. pic.twitter.com/QE7iyry8Cf— Rich Hill (@PP_Rich_Hill) February 18, 2016
Pythagorean expectations are essentially just a projection based on the previous season's scoring differentials, with some regression to the mean thrown in. They're not some high-falutin', statistical modeling with so many factors you can't keep track of what's happening -- even though those have their place, too. The Pythagorean model will never project quick turnarounds, even though they certainly do happen.
Still, the six-game projections fits with most of the external projections we've seen, most notably that of the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. There's reason for optimism with the Bucs, but most of it isn't based on statistical analysis.