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This is just a simplified preview of the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs using some basic stats.
KC's Defense
| Bucs | KC | ||||||
| Off Pass (yds/g) | Off Rush (yds/g) | PF (ppg) | Def Pass (yds/g) | Def Rush (yds/g) | PA (ppga) | ||
| Rank | 15th | 17th | 13th | 13th | 27th | 7th | |
| 252.7 | 104.9 | 24 | 244.4 | 121.7 | 18.7 | ||
| Diff (Def - Off) | |||||||
| Pass | Rush | PA | |||||
| -8.3 | 16.8 | -5.3 | |||||
Kansas City's biggest weakness is stopping the run. Fortunately for the Bucs, the return of both center Joe Hawley and running back Doug Martin may pay dividends, provided rookie left guard Caleb Benenoch can improve his play from his first game of the season.
The Chiefs defense points per game allowed ranks among the best in the league. The Bucs offense has not fared well against top defenses such as Arizona and Denver. In my Offensive Drive articles this season, I noted that the Bucs offense has struggled all season, averaging about 18 points per game excluding the help they get from the defense or special teams.
This KC defense will be a very good test for the offense and Winston, but for a related metric that I will show later in the article.
Bucs' Defense
| KC | Bucs | ||||||
| Off Pass (yds/g) | Off Rush (yds/g) | PF (ppg) | Def Pass (yds/g) | Def Rush (yds/g) | PA (ppga) | ||
| Rank | 22nd | 20th | 17th | 23rd | 25th | 26th | |
| Yds/g | 233.1 | 99.7 | 22.8 | 267.7 | 118.3 | 26.9 | |
| Diff (Def - Off) | |||||||
| Pass | Rush | PA | |||||
| 34.6 | 18.6 | 4.1 | |||||
Obviously, the Bucs' defense is quite a mediocre defense when taken in totality. Yet once the offense stopped gifting the ball to the opposing teams so often, the defense has produced. Here are the results:
| Bucs' Offensive Opponents | |||||
| Scoring to Results | |||||
| Game | Rank | Team | PPG | Game Scored | Bucs Result |
| 5 | 12th | Car | 24.4 | 14 | Win |
| 6 | 22nd | SF | 20.8 | 17 | Blowout Win |
| 7 | 5th | Oak | 27.2 | 24 (30 - OT) | OT Loss |
| 8 | 1st | Atl | 32 | 43 | Blowout Loss |
| 9 | 31st | Chi | 15.7 | 10 | Blowout Win |
With the exception of the Atlanta game on a short week, the Bucs' defense has held the opposing offenses below their scoring game averages in regulation time. With this trend, I believe the Bucs can keep Kansas City's offense below their average scoring for the year provided the Bucs' offense does not turn the ball over.
Turnovers
Kansas City leads the league in takeaways, with a total of 22 takeaways. They beat the Panthers last week due to two takeaways. One was a pick-six by Eric Berry and the other was a strip fumble for the game winning FG. The Chiefs offense did not create a touchdown in that game.
Finally breaking even, the Bucs are at a net zero mark for turnover differential.
Conclusion
These two teams mirror each other such that the wins are reliant upon defenses to create scoring for their respective teams. Whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win this game.
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