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Feast or famine for Buccaneers offense in first four games

By Hockey Duckie
Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

2016 NFC South
1st Quarter Results
Conference Points
Team W L T PCT W L For Against Differential
Atlanta 3 1 0 0.75 2 1 152 124 28
Tampa Bay 1 3 0 0.25 1 2 77 128 -51
Carolina 1 3 0 0.25 1 2 109 118 -9
New Orleans 1 3 0 0.25 0 2 114 130 -16

Look at the Points For section of the table for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That is no typo. We are the lowest scoring team in the division. The lack of scoring could be due to the teams the Bucs have faced in the first quarter.

2016 Defensive Rankings
1st Quarter Buc Opponents (Stats after four weeks only)
Total Yards Passing  Allowed Rushing Allowed PPGA
Game Team Rank Yds/G Rank Yds/G Rank Yds/G Rank PPG
1 Atlanta 30th 419.3 31st 317 16th 102.3 29th 31
2 Arizona 8th 308 5th 189.8 23rd 118.3 12th 20.2
3 LA 24th 379.5 23rd 275 17th 104.5 9th 19
4 Denver 4th 283.3 2nd 169.5 21st 113.8 5th 16
Average 12th 347.53 12th 237.825 19th 109.725 16th 21.55

Now with the defensive metrics of the first four teams the Bucs have faced shown above, we can display the first quarter offensive drives table.

2016 Q1 Offensive Drive Report
Opposing Defense vs Bucs Offense
Gm Team Drives Plays Yards RZ Pts 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + Yard Drives Totals
1 Atl 12 62 397 2 31 0 0 0 3 0 1 4
2 Ari 14 77 301 1 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 2
3 LA 13 83 458 6 26 3 1 0 3 0 0 7
4 Den 13 66 213 1 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Total 10 288 1369 10 71 4 1 0 8 0 1 14
Average 13 72 342.3 2.5 18 1 0.25 0 2 0 0.25 3.5

The offense put up points against Atlanta and LA. Against the top defensive teams like Arizona and Denver, it was devoid of offense. This absence can be easily seen in the lack of long drives by the offense in both games.

This year's offense is averaging 18 points per game. Yet, looking at each game individually, we notice it is feast or famine.

Although there were high hopes that the offense would be building off last season's success, it has been a Jekyll and Hyde performance. All of this roller coaster performance is centered around sophomore QB Jameis Winston.  Winston's eagerness in his second year in the NFL and offensive system has his mechanics overthrowing teammates or trying to fit the ball into coverages he should not be throwing into.

2016 Q1 Offense
Points off Turnovers (Including missed FG's)
Gm Team INT FUM Total Miss FGs FG after TO TD after TO XP after TO Neg. Pts
1 Atl 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 7
2 Ari 4 1 5 1 1 2 1 19
3 LA 1 1 2 1 0 2 2 17
4 Den 2 1 3 0 0 2 2 14
Total 8 3 11 2 1 7 6 57
Average 2 0.75 2.75 0.5 0.25 1.75 1.5 14.25

The points off of turnovers are astoundingly high! This might be the single biggest culprit in a dismal season and blowout losses. We can close with one more table:

2016 TB Offensive NET Production
PPG v Points off of Offensive Turnovers
Points Per game Negative Points by the offense Differential
18 14.25 3.75

The offense is only averaging 3.75 points per game on net scoring production.

Silver lining

The bye week is set after the fifth game of the season. The bye week will, hopefully, bring back the run game aspect to the Bucs. RB Doug Martin is set to return soon after getting injured in the second game of the season. TE and blocking back Luke Stocker gets a chance to fully recover. RG JR Sweezy might be able to bolster the offensive line for the run game.

Last year, Winston put up zero interceptions for four weeks after the first four games.

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