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Is it Dirk Koetter or Jameis Winston?

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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

NOTE:  This is a hypothetical exercise.

The potential of a franchise quarterback is what can lift any organization. The imperative word is potential.

Now, let us peer into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' present situation. Last season, Tampa was ranked 25th in passing, 29th in rushing, and 29th in points per game average. The offensive coordinator, OC, was first year NFL quarterbacks coach in Marcus Arroyo due to heart ailments to OC Jeff Tedford.  Of the 16 games, nine games were one possession losses, which is 8 points or less. For those nine game lost, the average per loss was 4.3 points per game. There were six blown fourth quarter leads last year as well. The offense is lacking.

2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Blown Leads and Point Differentials
Team Opp Score Bucs Score Point Differential Win Blown 4th quarter lead QB Games Lost by 8 points or less.
1 Car 20 14 -6 M 1
2 StL 19 17 -2 Yes M 1
3 Atl 56 14 -42 M/G
4 Pit 24 27 3 W G
5 NO 37 31 -6 OTL Yes G 1
6 Bal 48 17 -31 G
Bye Week
7 Min 19 13 -6 OTL Yes G 1
8 Cle 22 17 -5 Yes G 1
9 Atl 27 17 -10 Yes M
10 Was 7 27 20 W M
11 Chi 21 13 -8 M 1
12 Cin 14 13 -1 M 1
13 Det 34 17 -17 M
14 Car 19 17 -2 M 1
15 GB 20 3 -17 M
16 NO 23 20 -3 Yes M 1
M = McCown, G = Glennon. 9

The Bucs were able to nab OC Dirk Koetter from divisional rival Atlanta Falcons. Here is a simplified offensive chart comparing the two offenses:

TB vs ATL
2014 Offensive Stats
Stats TB ATL Differential (TB - ATL)
Run/G 85.9 93.6 -7.7
Pass/G 204.7 284.6 -79.9
Pts/G 17.3 23.8 -6.5
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame

Atlanta had their offensive line hit with injury en masse.  Read the details about it here: Promising Pass Protection. OC Koetter has proven to know how to continue to have a successful pass protection despite a lack of talent.

Notice Altanta's offense was almost scoring a touchdown more than the Bucs' offense. If the Bucs were simply to score half the scoring differential of 3.25 points per game, then the Bucs would have won 6 more games (the Bucs had the lead for both OTL games). The total games won, for this particular exercise, would have been eight games.  That would pave way for the Bucs to represent the NFC South in the playoffs.

Next, we can focus on Glennon as the starting quarterback. In the five games that Glennon had started for the Bucs, he led the offense to a lead in the fourth quarter four times. Of those four opportunities to win in the fourth quarter, Glennon lead the team to one win and two overtime losses. A single point in regulation time would have netted two additional wins. The fact that Glennon had lead the team to four fourth quarter leads would imply the offense just needs a little more productivity to change the outlook for the team in the win-loss columns.

The premise of the addition of OC Koetter to QB Glennon in that five game set is that the Bucs would have conservatively won three out of the five games. Extrapolate that to a 16 game set, then the Bucs would have 9.6 total wins.

First overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL draft Jameis Winston was selected out of Florida State University, FSU. As its starting quarterback for the past two years, Winston has lost only one game, a playoff game in his second year starting. In his second season, Winston did not have a great offensive line to help produce a viable running game, yet still helped keep his team undefeated in the regular season as well as win the Atlantic Coast Conference, ACC, championship game.

Winston is very charismatic, very accurate, and possesses great recall for an incoming quarterback. Being selected first overall would indicate Winston should be the top talent, but many still scout Winston to be a notch below Andrew Luck. With all the accolades and known talent, if Winston were to be hampered with Arroyo as his OC, then would Winston still produce? Would Arroyo know how to direct the offensive line to execute well enough for Winston to survive? Recall, this is the same OC who called a run play on a 3rd and 7 yards to go on the opposing team's 9 yard line with giants at receiving with 6'5" Vincent Jackson, 6'5" Mike Evans, and 6'5" Austin Serafin-Jenkins. This was the St. Louis game in the third quarter, if one wants to recall it specifically. Winston would be hampered by underpowered offensive prowess of OC Arroyo.

This article is a hypothetical. Who would make a bigger impact for the Bucs: OC Koetter (and QB Glennon) or QB Winston (and OC Arroyo)?

Winston has the potential to be a franchise QB. The Bucs once had QB Steve Young on its roster, but he never developed in Tampa. Young did become a Hall of Fame quarterback under San Francisco's coach, Bill Walsh.  Young becoming an eventual HOF quarterback implies that Bucs were abysmal offensively.

Koetter is an established NFL OC. Koetter is coming from a division rival, meaning he knows the tendencies of at least Carolina and New Orleans' defenses. Koetter also has been proven to work an offense around its current personnel.

It is quite obvious that I would choose OC Koetter over QB Winston. If this is your first time reading me, then I will inform you that I am an FSU Seminole fan with high praise for Winston. Read this article that I wrote about Winston before the Rose Bowl loss to Oregon and when the craze was all about QB Marcus Mariota:  Building a Case for Jameis Winston. Fortunately, the Bucs have both OC Koetter and QB Winston. An NFL offensive wizard with a quarterback whose college team runs similar schemes as the OC is kismet.

Tell me who you would choose if you had to pick one and give the reasoning below.