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Assuming Jameis Winston will not play in Thursday night's pre-season finale against the Miami Dolphins, the Buccaneers top overall draft pick just completed the worst pre-season for a number one overall pick at the QB position and fourth worst among first round quarterbacks (and notable second and third round picks) in the last 15 years.
Those are the facts, folks. I was curious to see if other first round picks have struggled as badly in their rookie pre-seasons as our man Jameis and unfortunately, the answer is not many.
The good news is he's in good company. 2 time Super Bowl champion Eli Manning, Super Bowl Champion Aaron Rodgers, playoff QBs Matt Stafford and Phillip Rivers each were in the same zone as Winston in their rookie pre-season campaigns
Quarterback | comp | Att | pct | Yds | TD | INT | QB Rating |
Eli Manning | 24 | 49 | 49 | 327 | 0 | 2 | 53.7 |
Rodgers | 20 | 37 | 54.1 | 172 | 1 | 2 | 53 |
Stafford | 30 | 55 | 54.5 | 389 | 1 | 4 | 52.8 |
Winston | 23 | 47 | 48.9 | 311 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 |
Rivers | 18 | 30 | 60 | 164 | 1 | 3 | 46.4 |
Campbell | 17 | 37 | 45.9 | 244 | 1 | 3 | 43.1 |
Freeman | 22 | 49 | 44.9 | 238 | 1 | 3 | 41 |
Of course, the bad news is Stafford went on to have a terrible rookie season. Eli didn't play until week 9 (and played poorly), Rivers and Rogers didn't play at all. The other two QBs on the list, Jason Campbell didn't play his rookie year and Josh Freeman, well, we know what happened with him.
Among top overall selections, Winston performed the worst.
Quarterback | comp | Att | pct | Yds | TD | INT | QB Rating |
Bradford | 33 | 55 | 60 | 338 | 3 | 0 | 95.9 |
Luck | 41 | 66 | 62.1 | 522 | 3 | 2 | 89.3 |
Palmer | 37 | 54 | 68.5 | 451 | 4 | 4 | 87.8 |
Newton | 24 | 57 | 42.1 | 300 | 1 | 0 | 64.9 |
Alex Smith | 20 | 44 | 45.5 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 64.5 |
David Carr | 37 | 70 | 52.9 | 441 | 1 | 3 | 59.3 |
Vick | 15 | 28 | 53.6 | 158 | 0 | 1 | 55.4 |
Eli Manning | 24 | 49 | 49 | 327 | 0 | 2 | 53.7 |
Stafford | 30 | 55 | 54.5 | 389 | 1 | 4 | 52.8 |
Winston | 26 | 46 | 48.9 | 311 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 |
Of the 7 first round quarterbacks 2000 to complete less than 50% of his passes his rookie pre-season campaign, only Cam Newton went on to have a good rookie season and only Newton, Alex Smith (after years of struggle) and Eli Manning ever had any playoff success.
Quarterback | comp | Att | pct | Yds | TD | INT | QB Rating |
Weeden | 24 | 49 | 49 | 297 | 0 | 1 | 59.6 |
Eli Manning | 24 | 49 | 49 | 327 | 0 | 2 | 53.7 |
Winston | 23 | 47 | 48.9 | 311 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 |
Campbell | 17 | 37 | 45.9 | 244 | 1 | 3 | 43.1 |
Alex Smith | 20 | 44 | 45.5 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 64.5 |
Freeman | 22 | 49 | 44.9 | 238 | 1 | 3 | 41 |
Newton | 24 | 57 | 42.1 | 300 | 1 | 0 | 64.9 |
So what's the good news? Well, rookie pre-season success doesn't necessarily dictate greatness, either. EJ Manuel holds the rookie pre-season high water mark of the last 15 years with a 112 QB Rating and a 78.8 completion percentage. Mark Sanchez, Brady Quinn, RG III and JP Losman are also in the top ten.
For those wondering, Mariota interestingly only threw the ball 27 times this pre-season (second lowest among first rounders) and the Titans only exposed him to 10 drives. Mariota's offense was highly efficient in those 10 drives, garnering 20 points but none were a direct result of a pass or run by Marcus.
Winston had 21 drives and saw his offenses score 24 points, but 14 of those came on Winston touchdown scrambles.
Each finished with 2 turnovers and no touchdown passes on the campaign. Mariota's completion percentage was a stellar 70.4 pct and his yds per completion was a solid 13.2. Winston's yard per completion was actually worse, 11.9.
No, Mariota's campaign wasn't the greatest we've seen in the last 15 years, but he didn't have much opportunity as the Titans seemed focused on limiting his exposure. Mariota and Winston became the sixth and seventh first round QBs not to throw a touchdown pass in the pre-season joining Eli, Michael Vick, Brandon Weeden, Chad Pennington and Losman.
The bottom line is Winston had a very rough pre-season and Buc fans better hope he follows in the footsteps of Cam Newton and not Matt Stafford in 2015.
Since 2000, First Rd Quarterbacks and QBs of Note Rookie PreSeason Numbers
Quarterback | comp | Att | pct | Yds | TD | INT | QB Rating |
Manuel | 26 | 33 | 78.8 | 199 | 2 | 0 | 112 |
Bridgewater | 30 | 49 | 61.2 | 283 | 5 | 0 | 111.2 |
Sanchez | 24 | 37 | 64.9 | 347 | 3 | 1 | 111 |
Wilson (3rd Rd) | 40 | 63 | 63.5 | 536 | 5 | 1 | 110.3 |
Bortles | 32 | 51 | 62.7 | 521 | 2 | 0 | 110 |
Cutler | 40 | 62 | 64.5 | 561 | 4 | 1 | 108.3 |
Leftwich | 21 | 29 | 72.4 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 103.5 |
Griffin III | 20 | 31 | 64.5 | 193 | 2 | 0 | 103.3 |
Quinn | 29 | 45 | 64.4 | 300 | 3 | 1 | 96.5 |
Losman | 9 | 11 | 81.8 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 96.2 |
Bradford | 33 | 55 | 60 | 338 | 3 | 0 | 95.9 |
Leinart | 29 | 47 | 61.7 | 314 | 2 | 0 | 95.5 |
Boller | 40 | 68 | 58.8 | 456 | 4 | 1 | 92.5 |
Luck | 41 | 66 | 62.1 | 522 | 3 | 2 | 89.3 |
Brees (2nd Rd) | 42 | 71 | 59.2 | 481 | 2 | 0 | 89 |
Locker | 32 | 49 | 65.3 | 316 | 2 | 1 | 88.5 |
Tebow | 25 | 39 | 64.1 | 344 | 2 | 2 | 88 |
Palmer | 37 | 54 | 68.5 | 451 | 4 | 4 | 87.8 |
Mariota | 19 | 27 | 70.4 | 252 | 0 | 1 | 84.2 |
Ponder | 27 | 49 | 55.1 | 290 | 1 | 0 | 79.5 |
Manziel | 30 | 59 | 50.8 | 296 | 2 | 0 | 76.7 |
Ryan | 34 | 59 | 57 | 294 | 2 | 1 | 75.1 |
Harrington | 63 | 112 | 56.3 | 766 | 4 | 4 | 74.5 |
Pennington | 22 | 36 | 61.1 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 74.3 |
Roethlisberger | 25 | 43 | 58 | 335 | 1 | 2 | 71.4 |
Flacco | 36 | 57 | 63 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 69.4 |
Young | 29 | 57 | 50.9 | 357 | 1 | 1 | 69.1 |
Tannehill | 41 | 78 | 52.6 | 414 | 1 | 1 | 66.9 |
Ramsey | 17 | 34 | 50 | 219 | 2 | 2 | 65.7 |
Newton | 24 | 57 | 42.1 | 300 | 1 | 0 | 64.9 |
Alex Smith | 20 | 44 | 45.5 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 64.5 |
Gabbert | 35 | 70 | 50 | 365 | 1 | 1 | 64.3 |
Glennon (3rd rd) | 33 | 70 | 47.1 | 397 | 3 | 3 | 61.4 |
Dalton (2nd Rd) | 36 | 60 | 60 | 328 | 1 | 3 | 59.6 |
Weeden | 24 | 49 | 49 | 297 | 0 | 1 | 59.6 |
David Carr | 37 | 70 | 52.9 | 441 | 1 | 3 | 59.3 |
Vick | 15 | 28 | 53.6 | 158 | 0 | 1 | 55.4 |
Eli Manning | 24 | 49 | 49 | 327 | 0 | 2 | 53.7 |
Rodgers | 20 | 37 | 54.1 | 172 | 1 | 2 | 53 |
Stafford | 30 | 55 | 54.5 | 389 | 1 | 4 | 52.8 |
Winston | 23 | 47 | 48.9 | 311 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 |
Rivers | 18 | 30 | 60 | 164 | 1 | 3 | 46.4 |
Campbell | 17 | 37 | 45.9 | 244 | 1 | 3 | 43.1 |
Freeman | 22 | 49 | 44.9 | 238 | 1 | 3 | 41 |
JaMarcus Russell did not play in the pre-season his rookie year due to a contract dispute |