The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win six games, if Football Outsiders' annual statistical analysis is correct. They think the Bucs will win 6.4 games on average, with a 16.1% chance of making the postseason, and a whopping 24% chance of winning 0-4 games -- which would probably mean everyone's fired. Again.
In the Football Outsiders Almanac, Andrew Healy focuses on their weak impression of Jameis Winston. Prior to the draft, Outsiders' statistical model evaluated Winston as a likely bust. There are reasons to disregard that projection: a statistical prediction is never a certainty, and Winston is a pretty unique prospect -- the statistical decline from his first to his second year is pretty much unprecedented. But there's certainly some reason for concern -- rookies often struggle, and no quarterback prospect is a sure thing.
Still, six wins isn't the end of the world. In fact, it would represent a significant improvement over last season. But somehow, six wins would still feel disappointing to me. A successful season is usually concluded with, you know, a playoff win or two -- but the Bucs have set the bar so low that six wins can feel like an okay result. That's fairly awful.
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