How the Buccaneers blew their leads

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were involved with six blown fourth quarter leads this past 2014 NFL season.  This article is to help review those blown leads. Some believe that the blown leads are due to an inept offense.  Some believe that the defense cannot close games. I believe it varies per game, but it is helpful to see if a particular pattern exists in the blown leads in the fourth quarter. Please note that a blown lead in the fourth quarter is a lead that is lost, including tying the game. That would usually mean the defense had allowed a score or more to occur by the opposing team to lose said lead.

2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Blown Leads and Point Differentials
	Team	Opp Score	Bucs Score	Point Differential	Win	Blown 4th quarter lead	QB
1	Car	20	14	-6			M
2	StL	19	17	-2		Yes	M
3	Atl	56	14	-42			M/G
4	Pit	24	27	3	W		G
5	NO	37	31	-6	OTL	Yes	G
6	Bal	48	17	-31			G
	Bye Week
7	Min	19	13	-6	OTL	Yes	G
8	Cle	22	17	-5		Yes	G
9	Atl	27	17	-10		Yes	M
10	Was	7	27	20	W		M
11	Chi	21	13	-8			M
12	Cin	14	13	-1			M
13	Det	34	17	-17			M
14	Car	19	17	-2			M
15	GB	20	3	-17			M
16	NO	23	20	-3		Yes	M
M = McCown, G = Glennon.

In the chart above, I denote the games in which the there were fourth quarter blown leads.  We will review each game, with the focus on the fourth quarter.

Game 2: St. Louis 19, Tampa Bay 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vs St. Louis, 4th Quarter Drives
QTR	Time Started	Drive	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
						TB	Opp
4	15:00	TB	6	24	Blocked FG	14	13	The only play in the fourth quarter from this drive was the FG attempt.         Red Zone FG attempt.
	14:50	St. Louis	9	49	FG	14	16
	9:10	TB	8	64	FG	17	16	Red Zone FG
	5:15	St. Louis	12	71	FG	17	19
	0:38	TB	3	48	End of game
Drive information from ESPN.com

In this game, the Bucs' defense gave up the fourth quarter lead twice.  The special teams botched a field goal attempt that could have altered the game play for St. Louis, considering the Rams won by only two points.  By not scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone twice, near and in the fourth quarter, the offense is not absolved of its share of the blame for the loss.  Yet, it still put the team ahead with only 5:15 left in the game.

The play that broke the back:

TB 17, St. Louis 16

3^rd and 9 at the St. Louis 48 yard line with 1:55 left in the game.  Rams' QB Davis passed deep right to Pettis for 27 yards.

Conclusion, or who to ultimately blame:  Defense lost the game.  What is not shown here is the end of the first half and Lovie Smith sat on his timeouts, not trusting his offense.

Game 5: Tampa Bay 31, New Orleans 37 OT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vs New Orleans (Game 1), 4th Quarter Drives
QTR	Time Started	Drive	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
						TB	Opp
4	15:00	TB	10	81	TD	31	20	Three plays from this drive occurred in the fourth quarter.
	13:28	NO	10	78	TD	31	26	Missed two Pt conversion
	9:28	TB	3	-20	Safety	31	28	3 penalties and a bad snap.  2 Oline penalties, 1 Delay of game penalty.
	6:44	NO	8	34	FG	31	31	44 yard FG
	2:30	TB	5	4	Punt	31	31	OLine penalty
	1:05	NO	5	15	INT	31	31
	0:16	TB	1	16	End of game
OT	15:00	NO	12	80	TD	31	37	Def Penalty to extend drive.
Drive information from ESPN.com

Fifteen... fifteen points was given up by the defense in the fourth quarter and overtime.  Nine points were given up in the fourth quarter by the defense.

The Bucs offense had given the team an 11 point lead early in the fourth quarter after an 81 yard drive.  On the ensuing possession, the Saints offense marched down 78 yards for a touchdown.  Afterwards, the safety occurred.  Thereafter, New Orleans once again marched down 34 yards for a game tying field goal.  Tampa had a chance to win the game, but an offensive holding call by Mankins negated a 9 yard pass; instead of a 2^nd and 1 on the Tampa 43 yard line it becomes 1^st and 20 at the Tampa 24 yard line.

New Orleans' last possession in regulation time was thwarted when CB Verner intercepted QB Drew Brees  at the Tampa Bay 11 yard line.

The Two-Drive Set that broke the back:

TB 31, New Orleans 26 with 9:28 on the clock

1^st and 10 @ TB 20... D Martin rushed right for 3 yards.

PENALTY on Dotson, offensive holding - 10 yards penalty enforced.

1^st and 20 @ TB 10... M Glennon FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 2, and recovers at 2.

2^nd and 28 @ TB 2.... PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game - 1 yard penalty enforced.

2^nd and 29 @ TB 1.... PENALTY on TB (Gilkey), faslt start - 0 yards penalty enforced.

2^nd and 29 @ TB 1.... D Martin rushed right for no gain.

3^rd and 29 @ TB 1.... Safety.

TB 31, New Orleans 28 with 6:44 on the clock

1^st and 10 @ NO 40... Brees to Thomas for 19 yards.

1^st and 10 @ TB 41.... Robinson rushed right for 7 yards.

2^nd and 3 @ TB 34..... Brees incomplete to Cadet.

3^rd and 3 @ TB 34...... Brees to Cadet for 6 yards.

1^st and 10 @ TB 28.... Brees to Watson for 2 yards.

2^nd and 8 @ TB 26..... Brees to Thomas for - 8 yards.

3^rd and 16 @ TB 34... Brees to Thomas for 8 yards.

4^th and 8 @ TB 26..... Graham made 44 yard FG.

TB 31, NO 31 with 2:30 left on the clock

Conclusion, or who to ultimately blame:  For the offense, the offensive line and offensive line penalties negated all progress in the last two drives before the game ending, one play drive.  Yet the defense allowed 9 points in the final quarter as well as the game winning touchdown in overtime.  With all the momentum of going up by 11 points early in the fourth quarter, the defense came out with a dud.

Game 7: Minnesota 19, Tampa Bay 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vs Minnesota, 4th Quarter Drives
QTR	Time Started	Drive	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
						TB	Opp
4	15:00	TB	5	15	FG	3	10	54 yard FG; 3 plays of this drive was in the fourth quarter.
	14:12	Minn	9	39	Punt	3	10
	11:03	TB	7	53	FG	6	10	45 yard FG
	7:19	Minn	3	6	Punt	6	10
	5:40	TB	9	71	TD	13	10
	2:02	Minn	9	61	FG	13	13	38 yard FG
OT	15:00	TB	1	10	Fumble	13	16
Drive information from ESPN.com

The defense gave the offense a fighting chance to allow the offense to gain the lead in the fourth quarter.  All that effort was for naught as the defense could not close out the game.

The Drive that broke the back:

The last Minnesota drive, of course.

Conclusion, or who to ultimately blame:  The defense was the reason the offense was able to gain the lead, but the defense was the reason why the lead was blown.

Game 8: Tampa Bay 17, Cleveland 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vs St. Louis, 4th Quarter Drives
QTR	Time Started	Drive	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
						TB	Opp
4	15:00	TB	3	8	Punt	17	16	1 play of this drive occurred in the fourth quarter.
	14:45	Cle	7	57	INT	17	16
	11:30	TB	3	-5	Punt	17	16	1 yard punt
	9:42	Cle	2	35	TD	17	22	2 pt conv. failed
	8:59	TB	4	16	Punt	17	22
	6:58	Cle	8	25	Punt	17	22
	2:37	TB	5	30	Downs	17	22	Off. Pass Interference
	1:39	Cle	4	5	End of Game	17	22
Drive information from ESPN.com

This game was the first 4^th quarter blown lead where the lead was blown early in the fourth quarter.  At this point of the game, it was a game of field position.  The 1 yard punt by Koenen changed the game as it gave the ball to Cleveland at the 35 yard line.  If the Bucs' defense would have stopped the Cleveland offense there, then the FG attempt would be about 52 yards.

With the ball on the Tampa 35, Cleveland's second play had fooled CB Verner and Cleveland's Gabriel got behind Verner for the touchdown.  (I am going from memory here, so I may be skewed on what I am recalling, but if you recall what I recall, then we're good.)

The Play that broke the back:

Tampa 17, Cleveland 22 with 1:49 on the clock

4^th and 1 @ Cle 37...  Glennon to Evans for 9 yards.

.................................... PENALTY, offensive Pass Interference on Evans, 10 yard penalty enforced.

Conclusion, or who to ultimately blame:  Koenen, the defense getting burned on the ensuing drive, the ref who called offensive pass interference within five yards of the line of scrimmage, and the play call on the last drive.  We got jobbed!  I want to blame the offense, but the way the game was going, both defenses were clamping down.  So it came down to who would make a mistake, and we made the fatal mistake.

If the defense would have held the Browns to a field goal instead of a TD, then the game would have been TB 17, Cle 19.  On the last drive, with the ball on the Cle 37 yard line, the Bucs could have attempted a 54 yard field goal for the win.

Yet, not only that, but with 2^nd and 1 from the Cle 37 yard line, the Bucs following two plays were pass plays!  Why did the Bucs not run the ball?  You know like what did the Seattle Seahawks not run the ball at the end of the Super Bowl when all it needed was 1 yard for a touchdown?   If the Bucs would have ran for a first down, then there would not have been that controversial offensive pass interference call.  Yeah... I am still steaming at that call.

Game 9: Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vs Atlanta, 4th Quarter Drives
QTR	Time Started	Drive	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
						TB	Opp
4	15:00	TB	8	34	TD	17	16	2 plays of this drive occurred in the fourth quarter.
	14:18	Atl	10	65	TD	17	24	Two pt Conv. Successful
	9:18	TB	3	0	Punt	17	24
	7:03	Atl	5	36	FG	17	27	33 yd FG
	4:10	TB	9	76	INT	17	27	INT in End zone
	1:49	Atl	3	6	Punt	17	27
	1:29	TB	7	18	INT	17	27
	0:21	Atl	1	-1	End of game	17	27
Drive information from ESPN.com

This is the second game where the blown lead occurred early in the fourth quarter.  The defense made it more difficult a task to make a comeback as it allowed 10 consecutive points to go on the board.  With the interception in the endzone, that ended any chance to a comeback.

The Play that broke the back:

The interception in the end zone killed any chance for a proper comeback.

Conclusion, or who to ultimately blame:  Both the offense and defense let the team down.  Oh and Koenen.

Game 16: New Orleans 23, Tampa Bay 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vs New Orleans (2nd game), 4th Quarter Drives
QTR	Time Started	Drive	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
						TB	Opp
4	15:00	NO	6	54	TD	20	14	3 plays of this drive occurred in the fourth quarter.
	14:02	TB	5	19	Punt	20	14
	10:15	NO	4	17	Punt	20	14
	8:48	TB	6	16	INT	20	14
	5:20	NO	7	50	TD	20	21
	1:57	TB	3	-17	Safety	20	23	Off Penalty, holding
	1:05	NO	2	1	End of game	20	23	Onsides kick failed
Drive information from ESPN.com

The lead was blown after an interception gave the ball back to New Orleans.  The problem here is that the defense could not prevent the Saints from scoring a touchdown.  Anything, but a touchdown would have increased the chances of securing a win.  Afterwards, the Bucs' offense could not help itself for shooting its own foot.  The first offensive play of the last drive had an offensive holding call on Dotson that negated a 17 yard pass play.  It went all downhill from there as it resulted into a safety.

The Play that broke the back:

NO 14, TB 20 with 3:27 left on the clock.

4^th and 2 @ TB 42... Brees passes to Graham for 4 yards.

Conclusion, or who to ultimately blame:  The defense could not close out the game.  Yet at this point of the season, the inability to close out the game ensured the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the owners of the first overall pick in the 2015 draft.

Opposing offense's long drives lead to the team's demise.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th Quarter Drives, Blown Lead Drives
Game	Team	Plays	Yards	Result	Score		Comment
					TB	Opp
2	StL	9	49	FG	14	16	Blown lead #1.
	StL	12	71	FG	17	19	Blown lead #2.
5	NO	10	78	TD	31	26
	NO	8	34	FG	31	31	Blown lead
	NO	12	80	TD	31	37
7	Min	9	61	FG	13	13	Blown lead
8	Cle	2	35	TD	17	22	Blown lead
9	Atl	10	65	TD	17	24	Blown lead
16	NO	6	54	TD	20	14
	NO	7	50	TD	20	21	Blown lead
Drive information from ESPN.com

From the chart above, only the Cleveland game is where the defense did not allow a long drive to give up the lead.  Everywhere else, you can see the long drives given up dominate the chart.  All this was in the fourth quarter.  For a coach who is defensive minded, these six games represent a defense that cannot close games out in general.  While each game is different, blowing leads and the long drives given up to blow the lead should be very disturbing.

Despite the huge turnaround of defensive game play after the break, it blew a fourth quarter lead a total of four times out of the 10 games after the bye week. Recall, Lovie's hierarchal level of importance to him to have a team that is relevant: 1) defense, 2) special teams, and 3) offense.  If the offense possesses the lead in the fourth quarter, then his forte, the defense, should be able to clamp down.  This defense needs to learn how to close out games.

If the defense knew how to close out games, then there would be more notches in the win column.  Enough wins to secure the NFC South division title and a non-losing season.