The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the playoff hunt for the first time in years. The Bucs are 6-6, and just one game behind a wild card playoff spot. Winning out is almost certainly good enough to qualify for the playoffs, and there are even some scenarios where they can qualify with a 9-7 record -- JC De La Torre went through a bunch of these scenarios yesterday.
But those scenarios don't give us a good feel for how likely they are to occur, only that it's possible. Some statistical analysts do produce playoff projections, though, and they give the Bucs an okay but not exactly big chance of making it into the playoffs. Football Outsiders gives the Bucs a 28.6% chance of making the playoffs, numberFire gives them a 29.04% chance, FiveThirtyEight a 17% chance and the New York Times around a 13% chance.
Those numbers represent a pretty big variation, mostly based on how good each model thinks the Bucs are. Logically, the better they are, the more likely they are to make the playoffs.
The upshot is this: for the first time in years, the Bucs have a realistic shot at postseason football in December. And that's big.