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Buccaneers have 5-11% chance of making playoffs

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Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

As we noted yesterday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just two games out of a playoff spot -- with one game remaining against the Atlanta Falcons, who are currently in position to grab the second NFC wild card. But the odds for the Bucs to actually get to the playoffs are long.

They may not be as long as we initially thought, though. Five Thirty Eight currently gives the Bucs a 5% chance of making the playoffs, and numberFire gives the Bucs a 7.4% chance. But the best projection coems from Football Outsiders, who give the Bucs a whopping 10.6% chance to get into the ball. All of that despite the fact that all three sites think the Bucs are still a pretty bad team.

But the Bucs are also improving. As was the case last year, their defense has gotten significantly better as we enter the second half of the season. And this year, the offense isn't so completely incompetent that it torpedoes the team's every chance of winning. Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but continues to do good things every game, and the running game is a force almost every week as well. If the Bucs can get it together, a real playoff run is a possibility.

Of course, even a single loss makes any playoff run exceedingly unlikely, and two losses would make it near impossible. To make the playoffs, the Bucs need to be near-perfect the rest of the way. Apparently, they have between a 5% and 11% chance of doing exactly that.