clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Quarter Review: First Four Games, Growth and Inconsistencies

By Hockey Duckie
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1 - 3 to start the season. Starting four rookies on offense at QB, LT, RG, and MLB, would lend itself to growing pains. Let us do a review.

Defense

TB Defense vs Opposing Offense
Team Drive Plays Yards Off Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
Ten 10 50 307 35 0 2 1 0 1 0 4
NO 13 70 329 19 1 2 0 0 1 0 4
Hou 14 89 449 19 0 1 1 2 0 0 4
Car 13 60 316 30 2 0 2 0 0 0 4
Totals 50 269 1401 103 3 5 4 2 2 0 16
Avg 12.50 67.25 350.25 25.75 0.750 1.250 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.000
Percent of drives over total number of drives 6.0% 10.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 32.0%

Looking at drives alone, the defense is improving on limiting long drives. In the first game, the Tennessee game, their offense put the game away early at the expense of the defense. It was 35 - 7 at the half.  Against New Orleans, the Bucs' defense did well to limit the Saints defense. The score would have been less if it were not for a fumble lost in the fourth quarter. Holding onto a fourth quarter lead was the first time it occurred in Lovie's tenure here in Tampa.  Game three against Houston had its ups and down.Keeping the game close for the offense for three quarters was great, but that fourth quarter saw the defense fold by giving up two 80+ yard drives that resulted in 9 points. Finally in the fourth game against Carolina, the game did not get away until the second half. Turnovers were the culprit in the fourth game as you can notice that the longest drives were only 60 yards. Those two 60 yard drives resulted in a FG and a fluke of an 8 yard run, then fumble into the air, and their TE catching it in stride for another 59 yards for a TD.

If we are looking solely on points allowed stat, then yes, the Bucs' defense is beyond mediocre. Yet, only in two games did we see the defense falter terribly, versus Tennessee and the fourth quarter against Houston.

Defensive 3rd down efficiency

TB Bucs
2015 Defensive 3rd Down Stats
Game Team 3rd Down Success 3rd Down Attempts RZ Efficiency
1 Ten 4 9 44.4%
2 NO 7 14 50.0%
3 Hou 8 18 44.4%
4 Car 3 11 27.3%
Total 22 52
Average 5.5 13 42.3%

There is an improvement in defensive 3rd down efficiency. It is trending in a positive direction for the defense, ending the first quarter with an emphatic jump.

Defensive Red Zone efficiency

TB Bucs
2015 Defensive RZ Stats
Game Team RZ Success RZ Attempts RZ Efficiency
1 Ten 4 4 100.0%
2 NO 3 3 100.0%
3 Hou 1 2 50.0%
4 Car 2 5 40.0%
Total 10 14
Average 2.5 3.5 71.4%

As with the 3rd down efficiency, the defensive Red Zone efficiency is also improving. The defense has made cognizant strides in addressing these two areas. Because of this addressing, the defense has a much better outlook for the next quarter of the season.

Defensive Statistical Ranking (As per ESPN.com)

Yds/G:  9th

Passing Yds/G: 3rd

Rushing Yds/G: 30th

Points /G allowed: 30th

The first and last stats we sort of had a feeling on both. The rushing yards allowed is very eye opening.  That means there was a lot of bad tackling or lack of tackling.

TB Rushing Opponents
2015, First Quarter
Team Yards Rush Att Yds/Rush Top Rusher Yds Rushed
Tenn 127 32 3.9 RB Bishop Sankey 74
NO 104 27 3.9 RB Mark Ingram 53
Hou 186 46 4.0 RB Alfred Blue 139
Car 133 33 4.0 QB Cam Newton 51

If there is something to improve in a hurry, then it needs to be run defense. When teams average above 4.0 yards per rush, then that helps in giving the opposing team higher chances of earning first downs as well as continued effort to pound the rock. This might be the reason why the Bucs are ranked high in passing defense because opposing teams have a better offensive option in simply running it. And the Bucs' defense cannot stop it.

Offense

Although momentum does not exist statistically, the psychology of momentum is difficult to escape. Statistically, one's talent should be consistent and negates momentum as well as the clutch factor. I suppose this is what separates players that become superstars - there is no quit in their game. Yet a plethora of players are not superstars and are not playing a high, consistent level, otherwise they would be superstars as well.

Enter the momentum's pendulum, kicker Kyle Brindza. Brindza lifted everyone's spirits after accruing 14 points in the New Orleans' game that helped deliver a win, bringing the team to .500 early in the season. The ensuing game, Brindza missed three field goals and an extra point. He could have put the Bucs' ahead and potentially have won the game. So after a missing the second field goal attempt, the team felt as though it buckled. In the fourth game, Brindza missed two field goals that could have brought the team one point closer to the lead.  Brindza simply could not "snap and clear" himself out of the quicksand called momentum.

TB Offense vs Opposing Defense
Team Drive Plays Yards Off Scoring 40 + yard Drives 50 + yard Drives 60 + yard Drives 70 + Yard Drives 80 + Yard Drives 90 + yard Drives Total
Ten 12 63 225 14 1 0 1 1 0 0 3
NO 12 64 356 26 1 1 1 0 1 0 4
Hou 13 60 303 9 2 0 1 0 0 0 3
Car 13 78 389 23 1 0 0 0 3 0 4
Totals 50 265 1273 72 5 1 3 1 4 0 14
Avg 12.50 66.25 318.25 18.00 1.250 0.250 0.750 0.250 1.000 0.000
Percent of drives over total number of drives 10.0% 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% 28.0%

The offense is producing in yards as well as peppering in long drives. Although 18 points per game average is abysmal, kicker Brindza missed a total of six field goas and two extra points, for a maximum of 20 points not counted. Should we include the maximum, then the scoring would be averaging about 23 points per game. Although it is a hypothetical, it does lend itself that the scoring would be higher.

TB Bucs Offense
2015 Turnover Stat
Game Team INT Fumbles lost Total
1 Ten 2 0 2
2 NO 0 2 2
3 Hou 1 0 1
4 Car 4 1 5
Total 7 3 10

The worst game so far happens to be rookie QB Winston's worst game as he had a hand in all five turnovers. And yet Winston did not give up as he helped generate two 80 yard drives for touchdowns. Still, Winston managed to get an interception between those long drives.

Here are more positives despite the loss to Carolina:

TB Bucs
2015 Offensive 3rd Down Stats
Game Team 3rd Down Success 3rd Down Attempts RZ Efficiency
1 Ten 3 14 21.4%
2 NO 5 14 35.7%
3 Hou 1 12 8.3%
4 Car 8 16 50.0%
Total 17 56
Average 4.25 14 30.4%

That is a huge jump in conversion in the fourth game.

TB Bucs
2015 Offensive RZ Stats
Game Team RZ Success RZ Attempts RZ Efficiency
1 Ten 1 2 50.0%
2 NO 2 5 40.0%
3 Hou 0 1 0.0%
4 Car 3 5 60.0%
Total 6 13
Average 1.5 3.25 46.2%

The jump in third down conversion also helped in improving the Red Zone efficiency in the loss to Carolina.

Penalties

TB Bucs
2015 Penalties Breakdown
Game Team Off Def ST Total
1 Ten 10 3 1 14
2 NO 7 4 0 11
3 Hou 4 10 0 14
4 Car 3 2 0 5
Total 24 19 1 44

Marked improvement in its last game for the defense and the offense continued to reduce the number of penalties against it.

Conclusion

The team is improving everywhere.Game one was at the hand of the defense. In the second game, it took all three parts of the team to win the game. For game three the kicker and eventually the defense faltered. Lastly, the fourth game is all about Winston's turnovers. There are simply different reasons why the team lost a game and only one reason why the team won. Despite the 1 - 3 record, the Bucs are looking promising across the board.

Momentum does not exist statistically and so let us hope skill triumphs over getting psyched out.

More From Bucs Nation