Game 4 Drive Analysis: Turnover-itis

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to Carolina, 23 - 37. The final score is abysmal for a Bucs fan. Here are some tidbits of information:

Total Yards:  TB 411, Car 244

Time of Possession:  TB 32:10, Car 27:50

1^st downs:  TB 25, Car 17

3^rd down efficiency: TB 8 for 16, Car 3 for 11

Total Plays:  TB 75, Car 57

So what happened?  One more stat to cover for your eyes.

Turnovers:  TB 5, Car 1

Here are the previous Drive Analysis series:

Game 1 Drive Analysis:  Tampa, We Have a Problem

Game 2 Drive Analysis:  What a Difference a Week Makes

Game 3 Drive Analysis:  A Kick Backwards

Defensive Drives Against

Having last year's stats gives us Buc fans a standard when comparing this roller coaster ride of a season so far. Games after the bye week had the defense ranking top 10!

Although the stats run akin to the Tennessee game, low plays and yardage, but high points allowed, this game against Carolina is quite different. Notice drive 8 was one play for 67 yards. That was quite a fluke event as the ball was stripped out of the running back's hands after scampering for eight yards, popped into the air, and serendipitously fell into TE Ed Dickson's hands in stride to complete a 67 yard touchdown drive.

At the half, the score was TB 10, Car 17.  Well within striking distance. Yet in the first half, the Carolina offense put up only 10 points against the defense. For both opposing offense scoring drives, the drives were under 50 yards. That implies the Bucs' offense gifted the Panthers great field position in both instances.

In the second half, we see Carolina score 10 more points when they were gifted the ball once again in Bucs' territory by the offense.

While the defense did allow 30 points in this game, the defense did play well enough across the board, limiting Carolina's offense on third downs (3 for 11), getting two sacks, and 2 for 5 in the Red Zone. So what happen?

Offensive Drives

The offense went from bad to worse last year. Yes, that is the baseline to improve upon.  In the next chart, where I chart all the offensive drives, I have added another stat: Points Off Turnovers.

The culprit for the Bucs' demise was at the hands of rookie QB Jameis Winston. There were a total of five turnovers, a fumble lost and four interceptions. All five turnovers lead to the opposition scoring; one directly lead to scoring as it was a pick six, an interception returned for a touchdown (denoted in drive 2 with an asterisk). Points off turnovers totaled 27 points for Carolina. That implies the defense gave up 10 points on itself, with 7 points coming off a fluke 67 yard TD play.

Now we know the turnover and points off turnover relationship skewed the game completely in Carolina's favor, we can focus on looking at other tidbits.

To continue to add insult to injury, the Bucs' defense created a turnover at the start of the second half. The offense was given the ball at the Carolina 25 yard line. On 3^rd and 2 from the 17 yard line, Winston was sacked for an 8 yard loss. Then kicker Brindza missed his second field goal of the game. A Red Zone drive that failed. This one drive seemed to fit the theme for the Bucs for this game: the defense sets the offense for success, but the offense falters.

There are positives for the offense, but it really is difficult to see them over the five turnovers and 27 points off of turnovers. The offense had a total of six scoring drives, three of them were 80 - 89 yard drives. Of the six scoring drives, we failed to score twice. Once was a missed FG opportunity at the end of the first half with six seconds left on the clock as the offense got into the Red Zone (this RZ opportunity actually counts as a failed RZ opportunity because RZ opportunities only count TD's as successful attempts). The other failed scoring opportunity was denoted in the previous paragraph.

Last week, the Bucs' offense only put up 9 points. This week they put up 23 points, and left a minimum of 7 points off the board due to mediocre kicking. Last week, the Bucs went 1 for 12 on third down conversions. This week they were 8 for 16 on third down efficiency. Last week, the Bucs' rushing offense generated 57 yards rushing, 2.8 yards per rush. This week the team rushed for 133 yards, 4.0 yards per rush. Last week, the offense generated 14 first downs. This week the team earned 25 first downs.

A lot of good things were happening on offense, but it simply cannot overcome the elephant sized mistake of turning the ball over five times.

Penalties

There were 5  penalties called. The breakdown of the 5 penalties called is as follows:  offense - 3 , defense - 2, and ST - 0. This is the first game all season the Bucs have had under double digit penalties called.

Conclusion

Winston cost the Bucs' the game. That is what a rookie quarterback will do. Kicker Brindza failed to connect to give the team a boost in esteem at consecutive field goal attempts. Yet, I hope we fans do not lose sight that the team is still improving. While the loss is embarrassing, we can identify the biggest cause for the loss - Winston just did not take good care of the ball.

One more game until the bye week comes. That respite cannot come soon enough so that the team can loosen up and take a breather. The team is still moving in the correct direction. No need to call for Lovie's head... just yet.