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Here's some fantasy advice for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they prepare to take on Washington on Sunday.
Doug Martin, Doug Martin, Doug Martin
Over the past two weeks, Washington has given up a ridiculous 397 rushing yards. Over the season they're allowing teams to run for 4.6 yards per carry, ranked 25th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Doug Martin is racking up yardage -- 229 yards in his last two games, plus three rushing touchdown and an additional 72 receiving yards and another receiving touchdown. Sure, Charles Sims will get some carries and receptions -- but this is still a pretty easy start, especially given the fact that the Bucs should be able to stick with their run-the-ball gameplan for most of the game. This is not a game where they're likely to face a massive deficit.
Mike Evans or Vincent Jackson?
The Washington pass defense has actually been more or less okay. They're allowing a league-average 6.5 yards per attempt, and haven't been torched much. Football Outsiders even suggests they have the 11th pass defense in the NFL. And that's with Dashon Goldson starting at safety.
They do have one major deficit, though: they can't guard number two receivers. They're ranked 27th by DVOA in defending number two receivers, allowing 11 passes per game and 53 yards per game to number two receivers. Just so happens that the Bucs have one of the best number two receivers in the NFL -- it's just not entirely clear whether that's Mike Evans or Vincent Jackson. Teams have treated Evans as the number two wideout, but his production has been disappointing. Perhaps a bye week will help him reset and get back to the player he was last year.
Tampa Bay defense
This defense can't really stop people from scoring, but it's done surprisingly well at forcing sacks and turnovers and limiting yardage, all of which helps a lot in fantasy football. Going up against one of the worst offenses in the NFL won't exactly hurt, and a few big plays could make this a surprisingly effective start. It's risky, but there's the potential for a high reward.