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NFL Draft 2015: Looking beyond the first pick

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Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2015 NFL draft soon to come upon us, the majority of what we will read as Tampa Bay Buccaneer fans is going to be who to pick in the first round. Although the first round is important, building through the draft involves other picks.  Picks that usually can make immediate impacts are your second and third round picks.  Later picks are picks that can be developed into something more into the future.

In 2008, guard Jeremy Zuttah was picked in the third round. The following year, defensive tackle Roy Miller was drafted in the third round. The 2010 draft was terrible for 2nd and 3rd round picks: DT Brian Price and WR Arrelious Benn were second round picks while cornerback Myron Lewis, affectionately known to some Buc fans as "Look like Tarzan, play like Jane" was drafted in the third round. Soon not to be on the roster are the 2011 entries of second round pick DE/DT Da'Quan Bowers and third round pick linebacker Mason Foster.

A superstar was drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft when Tampa traded up for linebacker Lavonte David.  There was no third round pick for the Bucs in the 2012 draft. The following year netted cornerback Johnthan Banks in the second round as well as quarterback Mike Glennon in the third round. Banks looks to continue to start at cornerback, but Glennon's future remains unknown. After the 2014 draft, the new regime of Lovie Smith and Jason Licht, pronounced ‘Light', informed Buc fans that Glennon was the quarterback of the future. They should have added an ellipse because he still will be a quarterback of the future... for another team.

Last year, Tampa took TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins in the second round and RB Charles Sims in the third round.  ASJ looked inconsistent as he caught 21 out of 37 targets, or 56.7% catch rate, as well as only appeared in nine games.  Sims was a head scratcher as the Bucs already had three RBs in tow.  In eight games, Sims averaged 2.8 yards per game for a total of 185 yards.  As a pass catching RB, he did average 10.0 yards per catch for a total of 190 yards.  Then again, RB Bobby Rainey averaged 9.5 yards per catch for a total of 315 yards.

David and Banks are good staples of the defense.  While Glennon may seem like a bust, he did serve the team well when former starting quarterback Josh Freemen went awry.  Glennon also performed better than starting QB Josh McCown this past season.

The front office needs to make these picks in the second and third round count.  Yet it is at this junction is where the GM will make his statement.  If you were a GM, then would you keep these two picks or make trades?  Before you oppose trading picks, David was the 58th pick, or the 26th pick in the second round.  The Bucs gave up a third round pick (68th overall) and a fourth round pick (121st overall) for the Houston Texans' second round pick (58th overall) and seventh round pick (233rd overall).  A third and fourth made a move to the bottom of the second round to nab David.

To help you with possible trades, here is a chart to utilize as a barometer for possible trades.

Using this chart to help explain the David trade, the Bucs sent a third and fourth round pick for a second and a seventh.  By this chart, the Bucs sent 205.4 points value to Houston.  In return, Houston sent Tampa 172.5 points value.  There exists a 32.9 point value differential that the Bucs had to give up to move up.  That differential was a variance of 16% of the trade value for moving, or 32.9/205.4.  (The point value was the sum of the picks.  Go to the draft pick number, for example, pick 58, has a point value of 136.3.)

There are many possibilities of trades here such as trading down from the second round to trading up to the bottom of the second round or even third round.  Tampa Bay GM Licht has said that you have to build success through the draft.

"Our philosophy will be to build through the draft. That's where we'll get our stars. We will supplement our roster through free agency. We're going to look for value, we're going to spend wisely. The better teams in the NFL that compete year after year are the teams that draft the best."  -

http://www.bucsnation.com/2014/1/23/5338578/jason-licht-press-conference-sustaining-championship-success-by

Let me limit the movement to only the second and third round. Also, I will use Charlie Campbell's mock draft for the second and third round of players to choose from. Try to limit the point value differential to 16% max in trading up like done in the David trade.  Feel free to check out his link as there are some descriptions about each player to give you more background.

2015 Mock Draft, Charlie Campbell

Round 2

Rd

Pick

Team

Player

Pos

College

2

33

Tenn

Alex Carter

CB

Standford

34

TB

La'el Collins

OT/G

LSU

35

Oak

Devin Smith

WR

Ohio State

36

Jax

TJ Clemmings

OT

Pitt

37

NYJ

PJ Williams

CB

Fla State

38

Was

Gerod Hollinamn

S

Louisville

39

Chi

D'Joun Smith

CB

Fla Atlantic

40

NYG

Shaq Thompson

OLB

Washington

41

St. L

Garrett Grayson

QB

Colo State

42

Atl

Benardrick McKinney

ILB

Miss State

43

Cle

Cedric Ogbuehi

OT

TAMU

44

NO

Nate Orchard

DE

Utah

45

Minn

Duke Johnson

RB

Miami, Fla

46

SF

Arie Kouandijio

G

Ala

47

Mia

Tevin Coleman

RB

Indiana

48

SD

Hroniss Grasu

C

Oregon

49

KC

Josue Matias

G

Fla State

50

Buf

Maxx Williams

TE

Minn

51

Hou

Philip Dorsett

WR

Miami, Fla

52

Phi

Brett Hundley

QB

UCLA

53

Cin

Ty Sambrailo

OT

Colo State

54

Det

TJ Yeldon

RB

Ala

55

Ari

Jordan Phillips

DT

Oklahoma

56

Pit

Ifo Ekpre-Olomu

CB

Oregon

57

Car

DJ Humprhies

OT

Florida

58

Bal

Nelson Agholor

WR

USC

59

Den

Cameron Erving

OT

FSU

60

Dal

Michael Bennett

DT

Ohio State

61

Ind

Ameer Abdullah

RB

Nebraska

62

GB

Jocoby Glenn

CB

Centra Fla

63

NE

Ellis McCarthy

DT

UCLA

64

Sea

Ty Montgomery

WR

Standford

http://walterfootball.com/draft2015charlie_2.php

2015 Mock Draft, Charlie Campbell

Round 3

Rd

Pick

Team

Player

Pos

College

3

65

TB

Trey Flowers

DE

Arkansas

66

Ten

Hau'Oli Kikaha

OLB

Washington

67

Jax

Jaquiski Tartt

S

Samford

68

Oak

Javorius Allen

RB

USC

69

Was

Doran Grant

CB

Ohio State

70

NYJ

Jeremy Langford

RB

Mich State

71

Chi

Anthony Harris

S

Virginia

72

St. L

Dorial Green-Bekham

WR

Oklahoma

73

Atl

Donovan Smith

OT

Penn State

74

NYG

Danielle Hunter

DE

LSU

75

NO

Jay Ajayi

RB

Boise State

76

Minn

Jake Fisher

OT

Oregon

77

Cle

Nick O'Leary

TE

Fla State

78

Mia

Senquez Golson

CB

Ole Miss

79

SF

Justin Hardy

WR

East Carolina

80

KC

Durell Eskridge

S

Syracuse

81

Buf

Sean Mannion

QB

Oregon St

82

Hou

Daryl Williams

OT

Oklahoma

83

SD

Laken Tomlinson

G

Duke

84

Phi

Marcus Peters

CB

Washington

85

Cin

Lorenzo Mauldin

OLB

Louisville

86

Ari

Reese Dismukes

C

Auburn

87

Pitt

Clive Walford

TE

Miami, Fla

88

Det

AJ Cann

G

South Car

89

Car

Rashard Greene

WR

Fla State

90

Bal

Mike Davis

RB

South Car

91

Dal

Tyrus Thompson

OT

Oklahoma

92

Den

Tre Jackson

G

Fla State

93

Ind

Corey Robinson

OT

South Car

94

GB

Carl Davis

DT

Iowa

95

NE

Devin Funchess

WR/TE

Michigan

96

Sea

Owamagbe Odighizuwa

DE

UCLA

http://walterfootball.com/draft2015charlie_3.php

Would you trade down, trade up, or stay put in the second and third rounds?

2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Draft Selection and Point Value

Round

Pick

Overall

Point Value

1

1

1st

494.6

2

2

34th

173.3

3

1

65th

128

4

10

106th

91

5

26

154th

61.6

5

31/32

159/160th

59.0/58.5

6

8

168th

54.6

7

1

193rd

43.5

This does not include compensatory picks.

Point Values from https://harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/value3.jpg

For myself, I would be willing to trade down only because of the plethora of offensive linemen available in both the second and third rounds.

Trade #1.  Trade down.

Tampa trades 34th pick and 193rd pick (point value of 216.8) to Atlanta for the 42nd pick and 104th pick (point value of 251.6).  A variance of 34.8 point value, or 13% point value more for Atlanta to move up.  Tampa picks up an extra fourth round pick.  With the 42nd pick, Tampa chooses ILB Benardrick McKinney.

Trade #2.  Trade up.

Tampa trades 65th pick, 106th pick, and 154th pick (point value of 280.6) pick to Denver for the 58th and 92nd picks (point value of 237.0).  It is a 15% overpayment to move up in both the late second and third rounds.  With the 58th and 92nd picks, the Bucs pick up fellow offensive linemen teammates Cam Erving and Tre Johnson, respectively.  I have read reports that the Bucs are intrigued with Tre Johnson, which facilitated the multi-pick trade with Denver as it as both players going to Denver.

The Bucs, in this scenario, nab their MLB in McKinney, an OT/C in Erving, and a guard in Johnson in the second and third rounds.  Hopefully, they will all turn into starters. Again, this exercise is simply for entertainment purposes.