Predict Mike Evans' 2014 receiving yards

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted Mike Evans with the seventh overall pick, and they didn't do that because they thought he'd take a while to get going. They've named him a starter, and they expect him to produce immediately.

But how much production will he really be able to give the Bucs? First-round wide receivers average around 500 yards in their rookie seasons, and the same is true for top ten draft picks. Even great players can take a while to get going in the NFL, and Evans is coming from a college program that didn't even give him a playbook. He was used in a limited number of ways by Texas A&M, which led to such oddities as him never having to carry the ball in his left hand, something we saw rarther clearly on his second preseason catch.

The Bucs, conversely, will ask him to line up all over the field and run a variety of routes. They'll ask him to do a lot of things he's never done before. That is likely to slow down his development early on in his career.

Then again, Evans is a big man with great hands who should be able to consistently win on contested catches early on, without having mastered all the intricacies of playing the receiver position in the NFL. It wouldn't be shocking to see him produce just as a function of Josh McCown throwing the ball up and letting him go get it.

So, what do you think? How productive will Evans be this year?