Finding a draft-day trade for the Buccaneers

So you have the seventh pick overall in the NFL draft and you want to trade down. Do you know the exchange rate? Is there an exchange rate? By the seventh pick, the "can't miss prospect" will be gone and so there goes a lot of leverage to gain a better exchange rate. Thanks to fellow poster, TooFamiliar17, I will share two charts from this research site: How to Value NFL Draft Picks.

Jimmy Johnson Table

Here is a chart develop by head coach Jimmy Johnson of the Dallas Cowboys in the 1980's.

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Meers Table

And here is another chart developed by Kevin Meers, using Pro-Football-Reference's metric called Career Approximate Value.

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Here is a line graphic to displays both charts as well as the CAV per pick. Red Line is Johnson table. Black Line is Meers table. The fluctuating Blue Line is the CAV at that pick. I would look at the Blue Line instead because it does show a trend and how later picks are more valuable than earlier ones such as early second round picks versus late first round picks. And yet, it is still a guessing game and dependent upon scouts, schemes, and coaching along with the player's determination.

via harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com

Let us make up an example, say trade the 7^th overall pick for the 22^nd overall pick. What can we expect? Using the Jimmy Johnson table, the 7^th overall pick has a value of 1500 points and the 22^nd overall pick has a value of 780 points. The difference is 720 points. So the team holding the 22^nd pick must come up with 720 points to cover the value of a 7^th overall pick. Basically, the rest of that draft is owed plus more, provided the rest of the picks are 22^nd in each round. In fact, there is still a surplus of 83.3 points. This would mean the team holding the 22^nd overall pick will have to trade one of its pick for the following draft to cover the point spread.

If we use the Meers table via CAV, then the 7^th overall pick has a value of 329.4 points and the 22^nd overall pick has a value of 232.1 points. The difference is 97.3 points. Assuming the team holding the 22^nd overall pick drafts 22^nd in each round, then the closest point value to 97.3 is to be found in the third round, a value of 107.1. It is in excess of about 10 points, but that team is moving up to the 10 echelon.

The example provided above reveals a disparity in results. The Jimmy Johnson table favors considerably the owner of the top pick, where it requires all the one year's draft picks as well as one for the following draft. Whereas the Meers table is a meager first and third round pick for the seventh overall draft pick.

Using 2012 Bucs' Draft Trades

In 2012, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded their fifth overall pick for the seventh overall pick and a fourth round pick, the 101^st overall pick, to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Then, at the bottom of the first round, the Bucs make another trade to move into the latter parts of the first round. Bucs send a second round pick (36^th overall) and a the fourth round they added from the Jacksonville trade (101^st overall) to the Denver Broncos for their late first round pick (31^st overall) and fourth round pick (126^th overall). Finally, the Bucs traded up back into the second round after trading away their second round pick in the previous trade. Our loveable pirates traded a third (68^th overall) and fourth round (126^th overall) pick to the Texans for their second round (58^th overall) and seventh round (233^rd overall) pick. If you were lost in the myriad of trades and numbers, then you are in luck as we have yet another chart coming your way:

Let us compare the two tables, M for Meers and J for Johnson. In transactions 1, M shows we gained good value while J reveals we were losers on the trade. For transaction 2, the Broncos lost value in both tables and both tables show negligible losses. The third transaction has M showing the Texans gained good value while J shows a loss of value. So based upon these results, it looks as though the Meers table is what teams adhere more towards.

Utilizing the Bucs' 2012 trade really is a microscopic sample. I will add two more trades from 2012 draft to get a little more perspective.

RGIII trade

Both tables show that Washington overpaid tremendously. Is Robert Griffin the third worth that much? Is that the going price for a potential franchise quarterback? Apparently, this trade is just that extreme.

Trent Richardson Trade

Within this trade, the Meers table signifies that Minnesota received great value for trading down one spot. But with the Johnson table, this trade was a massive underpayment.

It is safe to say that the trading metric is closer towards the Meers table than the 1980's version of it constructed by Jimmy Johnson. With that now stated, we can use the Meers table as a more credible trading metric. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the seventh overall pick. With so many smoke signals, there is a very good possibility we may trade out of the seventh pick and go lower. Get your trading hats on, Bucs Nation, because we want to hear your trade proposals!