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2015 NFL Draft: Buccaneers have 10-11% chance of having top pick

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David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have around a 10% chance of ending the season with the number one pick in the draft, according to both NumberFire's model, which pegs it at 10.16%, and Football Outsiders', which claims the chance is 11.3%. In both cases, the Bucs actually have the third-best chance of ending up with a top two pick: behind the Raiders and Jets in Outsiders' model, and behind the Raiders and Jaguars in NumberFire's model.

Team NumberFire Football Outsiders
Oakland Raiders 59.62% 65.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars 16.98% 11.7%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.16% 11.3%
Tennessee Titans 7.92% 4.6%
New York Jets 4.74% 6.4%

The Bucs don't necessarily need the first overall pick in the draft. They're almost certain to take a quarterback with the top pick, given how Mike Glennon and Josh McCown have played this season, and there may be multiple options there, most notably Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. It's not clear how the Raiders' new regime (which will almost certainly be in place) will view Derek Carr, and the Jaguars are committed to Blake Bortles, but the Jets and Titans will probably want a new quarterback.

So this is kind of relevant for the Bucs, who do have the advantage of having the worst strength of schedule among all the top draft contenders, which means they'll probably 'win' most tiebreakers. Thanks, NFC South awfulness!