So given the fact that we're mostly going to be talking about the draft going forward, I wanted to get a very rough estimate of the odds that the Bucs don't win another game this season. I took those power rankings, and last week's DVOA rankings by Football Outsiders as general guidelines.
So first up, the Bucs face the Lions today. The Lions are 8-4, ranked 11th in Ryan Van Bibber's power rankings, which might present a problem for the Bucs. They're only 14th in DVOA, but they have the best defense in the NFL by those same statistics. Odds the Bucs win? 25%, maybe?
In week 15, the Buccaneers face the Carolina Panthers. Them of the six consecutive losses and increasingly horrible performances. They're ranked 29th in DVOA, with both their defense and offense in the mid-20s. Van Bibber pins them as the 27th team in the NFL. And they've been worse in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season, while the opposite is true for the Bucs. Chance the Bucs win, given that this is in Carolina, probably 45%.
In week 16, the Green Bay Packers come to town. The best team in the NFL by Van Bibber's estimation, and the third-best team by Football Outsiders' standards -- and the Packers just beat the number two ranked New England Patriots. I think we can safely say the Bucs are doomed, even at home, and that the chance of their winning that game is probably 15%, at best.
Finally, the Bucs host the New Orleans Saints in week 17. 23rd according to Van Bibber, and 18th by Outsiders' standards, the Saints are bad. They're just not horrifyingly incompetent. Which means the Bucs probably have something like a 30% chance of winning that game.
Multiply those completely-made-up odds, and the Bucs have a 25% chance of not winning another game.