The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't done yet, but they have only an 0.3% chance of winning the division, according to rough simulations by Grantland's Bill Barnwell. That's not much, but it's better than nothing. Update: Football Outsiders' playoff projections also give the Bucs 0.3% chance.
That 0.3% chance represents three occurrences in 1,000 simulations.
In each of those three miraculous Tampa Bay simulations, the Buccaneers beat the Packers (estimated as a 17.9 percent shot by Log5). The Bucs also have to play the Lions in Detroit. They could theoretically still win the division by going 4-2 in their final six games, but that would require the Falcons and Saints to each finish 1-5 or worse, while the Panthers win their games against the Falcons and Saints but lose the other three. It seems unlikely, but then again, if anything seems sure about this division, it's that teams will lose a lot of games.
If the Bucs win out they actually have a good chance of winning the NFC South, but that seems extremely unlikely with games against the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers left on the schedule. A 7-9 scenario means the Saints and Falcons have to win two or fewer games on the remaining schedule each -- not implausible, but not likely, either.
Week 13 - Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday Nov 30, 1:00 PM
Week 14 - at Detroit Lions, Sunday Dec 7, 1:00 PM, FOX
Week 15 - at Carolina Panthers, Sunday Dec 14, 1:00 PM
Week 16 - Green Bay Packers, Sunday Dec 21, 1:00 PM
Week 17 - New Orleans Saints, Sunday Dec 28, 1:00 PM