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What can Buccaneers fans expect of Mike Glennon?

Can Mike Glennon lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a victory on Sunday? Chances seems slim.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rolling with a rookie quarterback. The Buccaneers' franchise record with rookie quarterbacks as starters: 16-45. The only rookie quarterback with a winning record in Buccaneers history is Shaun King, who went 4-1 in 1999. Then again, the last time a rookie quarterback made his first start the abysmal 0-7 Buccaneers beat the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers, so there's always hope.

Mike Glennon will have to deliver on that hope if Greg Schiano and Mark Dominik want to keep their jobs beyond the 2013 season. The two are walking on dangerously thin ice now that they've switched quarterbacks. If you can't win with this roster, you really can't win -- and that winning had better start soon.

I'm not overly hopeful after watching every dropback Mike Glennon took in preseason. He looks generally accurate and like he could develop into a good quarterback -- but he's just too slow right now.

Greg Cosell has been a supporter of Mike Glennon since before the draft, but he thinks Glennon is going to run into problems, too."I don't know whether Mike Glennon is ready right now," Cosell said on the Fantasy Guru podcast. "I think the speed of the game is going to be a big problem for him early. I think he's going to make some major mistakes. I think he's going to get sacked a lot."

Third-round quarterbacks in history

If we look at previous third-round quarterbacks and how they did as rookies, we don't find a lot of encouraging results, either. The results were filtered for quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.

Games Passing
Rk Player Year Draft Tm Lg G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Y/A ANY/A Y/G W L
1 Russell Wilson 2012 3-75 SEA NFL 16 16 252 393 64.12% 3118 26 10 100.0 33 7.93 7.01 194.9 11 5
2 Nick Foles 2012 3-88 PHI NFL 7 6 161 265 60.75% 1699 6 5 79.1 20 6.41 5.13 242.7 1 5
3 Colt McCoy 2010 3-85 CLE NFL 8 8 135 222 60.81% 1576 6 9 74.5 23 7.10 4.73 197.0 2 6
4 Trent Edwards 2007 3-92 BUF NFL 10 9 151 269 56.13% 1630 7 8 70.4 12 6.06 4.64 163.0 5 4
5 Andrew Walter 2006 3-69 OAK NFL 12 8 147 276 53.26% 1677 3 13 55.8 46 6.08 2.78 139.8 2 6
6 Neil O'Donnell 1991 3-70 PIT NFL 12 8 156 286 54.55% 1963 11 7 78.8 30 6.86 5.23 163.6 2 6
7 Chris Chandler 1988 3-76 IND NFL 15 13 129 233 55.36% 1619 8 12 67.2 18 6.95 4.43 107.9 9 4
8 Jay Schroeder 1985 3-83 WAS NFL 9 5 112 209 53.59% 1458 5 5 73.8 15 6.98 5.44 162.0 4 1
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 9/26/2013.

Russell Wilson is a rather unique case: a player about whom everyone raved, but who dropped to the third round because of one specific trait: height. Glennon dropped for several reasons, and was not universally loved. He has multiple failings and, really, isn't that different from a lot of third-round picks. Note for those of you who fell in love with Nick Foles: his statistics really aren't all that impressive.

So if the high point in that list is beyond Wilson is Nick Foles, Chris Chandler or Trent Edwards, excuse me for not being too optimistic. Obviously each quarterback is unique and has his own strengths and weaknesses, so this is no definitive proof. It's just another piece of an increasingly depressing puzzle.

Game film, then?

Most important for me, however, is how Glennon looks on film. Everything else is just a way to try to predict how he'll look on film, but nothing can really replace solid film study in this area. So, I went through every dropback Mike Glennon had in preseason and tabulated the results. I hoped to get a feel for the kind of quarterback he was in preseason.

I didn't come away overly impressed. He was generally accurate, and probably more so than Josh Freeman ever was. That's going to be the one area where he'll be better than Freeman, and that's not insignificant. But he wasn't perfect in that area, and he looked worse in every area I could meaningfully evaluate without access to All-22 or coaches.

Glennon's arm is not nearly as strong as advertised. It's good, but it doesn't come close to Freeman or Joe Flacco. It's more of an early-years Matt Ryan: good enough to make every NFL throw, but not good enough to compensate for late throws or a lack of anticipation and certainly not good enough to be able to make any throw without stepping into them.

Glennon had a lot of pocket room in preseason, and he looked good when he did. His mechanics are cleaner than Freeman's, though not perfect, but he'll likely be more consistent. Unfortunately, he needs more of a pocket to operate in than Freeman. He can move around in the pocket, but he must have room in front of his feet to make any kind of throw. That's not uncommon, but it will limit him, and it will lead to a few sacks when they wouldn't really be necessary.

Worst of all, Mike Glennon was slow in everything he did. He was slow to drop back and he was slow to get the ball out, even on quick throws. The NFL game moves much faster than the college game, and Glennon is going to have to speed up his game if he's going to stand a chance of making an impact this year.

Overall, Mike Glennon still looked fairly decent in preseason for a rookie, but not remotely ready to be a starting NFL quarterback. The speed of the game is going to be too big of an issue, unless he has made some big strides since week four of the preseason.

# Accurate Result Direction Notes
1 Yes 61 yards to Crabtree Deep right Glennon evades pressure, Crabtree wide open
2 Yes 7 yards to Owusu Short left Screen
3 x Incomplete Ball knocked out of hands
4 No Incomplete to Owusu Short right
5 Yes -5 yards to Mike James Short right Screen
6 No Incomplete, DPI Deep right Underwood held, but ball overthrown anyway
7 Yes Incomplete, DPI Deep right Good throw, incomplete because of pass interference
8 Yes Incomplete to Owusu Short left
9 No Incomplete to Ogletree Deep right Steps up, overthrows
10 No Incomplete to Owusu Deep left Looks like miscommunication, but not a good throw either
11 Yes Incomplete to Owusu Deep left Accurate ball despite pressure
12 Sacked Hesitates, then takes sack
13 Yes 41 yards to Owusu Deep left Ravens in prevent -- everything except TD ends half for them.
14 Yes 6 yards to Underwood Short left Screen
15 Yes Incomplete to Underwood Short left Dropped, throw is a little low
16 Yes 21 yards to Ogletree Deep right Steps up, perfect pass
Incomplete to Ogletree Short left Looks like miscommunication
Intercepted Short left Schiano called this miscommunication after the game
19 Yes 2 yards to Ogletree Short right Screen
20 Yes 14 yards to Ogletree Short left Short of sticks on third down, Ogletree makes a man miss to convert
21 Yes 14 yards to Hagan Short left Contested catch
22 Yes Incomplete to Hagan Deep left Dropped
23 Yes 9 yards to Smith Short left Screen
24 No Incomplete to Hagan Deep left Just ahead of Hagan who maybe could have caught it with a better effort
25 Incomplete Short right Thrown away
26 Yes -1 yard to Hagan Short left Smoke route
27 Sacked Had time but didn't pull trigger
28 Yes 10 yards to Ogletree Short left Poor placement prevents YAC
29 Yes 3 yards to James Short right Dumpoff under pressure
30 Yes 13 yards to Ogletree Short left
31 Yes Incomplete to Underwood Short left Defensed
32 Yes 13 yards TD to Ogletree Short middle Stares Ogletree down, Patriots defenders still blow coverage
33 Yes 4 yards to James Short left Checkdown under pressure
34 Yes Incomplete to Ogletree Short left Timing just off on back shoulder fade
35 Yes 6 yards to Crabtree Short middle Looks left, goes back to find Crabtree
36 Yes 2 yards to Underwood Short right Short of sticks on third down
37 Yes 41 yards to Underwood Deep right Great seam throw
38 Yes Incomplete to Ogletree Short middle Leads Ogletree right to defender
39 No Incomplete to Douglas Deep left Just a few inches out of Douglas' reach on a deep ball
40 Yes 11 yards to Douglas Short right
41 Yes Incomplete to Hagan Short right Great third-down throw, Hagan can't hold on
42 No Intercepted Short right Really bad decision and location on short out route, easy pick for defender
43 Yes 40 yards to Hagan Deep left Great deep throw behind corner in front of safety
44 No Incomplete to Wright Short right Inaccurate throw under pressure
45 Yes 6 yards to Noble Short right Nice throw under pressure, hit after throw
46 Yes Incomplete to Douglas Deep left Accurate throw, but a little late. Douglas can't keep feet in bounds
47 Yes 11 yards to Noble Short right Decent throw under pressure
48 Yes 4 yards to Douglas Short middle Short of goal-line on third down.
49 Yes 2 yards to Hagan Short right Short of goal-line on third down.
50 Yes Incomplete to Mitchell Short right Dropped
51 Yes 1 yards TD to Douglas Short right Nice back-shoulder for touchdown
52 No Incomplete to Noble Short right Bad throw under pressure
53 No Incomplete to Ogletree Deep middle Late on the throw, hit as he throws, bad decision
54 Yes 19 yards to Noble Short right Under pressure
55 Yes Incomplete to Denton Short right Rollout
56 Yes Incomplete to Wright Short right Dropped, rolled out under pressure
57 Yes 13 yards to Wright Short right
58 No Incomplete to Denton
59 Tipped at line
60 Sacked Free rusher
61 Yes 12 yards touchdown to Douglas Short middle
62 No Incomplete to Underwood Short left Out of bounds
63 Yes Incomplete to James Short left Dropped on dumpoff
64 No Incomplete to Ogletree Short right Hit as he threw
65 Yes Incomplete to Ogletree Deep right Ogletree tries to one-hand the throw
66 Tipped at line
67 Incomplete Thrown away
68 Yes 2 yards to Stocker Short right
69 Incomplete to Underwood Short right Looks like miscommunication
70 Yes 3 yards to Underwood Short right
71 No Incomplete to Underwood Short right Can't step into throw because of pressure
72 Sacked Ball knocked out as he throws
73 Yes 3 yards to Byham Short right
74 Yes 5 yards to Underwood Short right
75 No Intercepted Short left Bad throw
76 Sacked
77 Yes 5 yards to Page Short middle Dumpoff
78 Yes 25 yards to Norwood Deep right Can't find open man on left, rolls out under pressure
79 Yes 20 yards to Page Deep middle Great seam throw
80 Yes Incomplete to Wright Short middle Leads Wright to a defender

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