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Now, before you start throwing out some numbers, permit me to indulge you in some pertinent reference points of information.
Where did Martin rank overall in rushing totals in 2012?
|
Top Rushers for 2012
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Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
Total Yards
|
Average Yards
|
Average
Per Game
|
|
1
|
Peterson
|
Min
|
2097
|
6.0
|
131.1
|
|
2
|
Morris
|
Was
|
1613
|
4.8
|
100.8
|
|
3
|
Lynch
|
Sea
|
1590
|
5.0
|
99.4
|
|
4
|
Charles
|
KC
|
1509
|
5.3
|
94.3
|
|
5
|
Martin
|
TB
|
1454
|
4.6
|
90.9
|
How did Martin perform through the season? Here’s a snapshot:
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Martin’s Year Snapshot
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||
|
Games
|
Attempts Per Game Average
|
Yards per Game Average
|
|
1 – 4
|
17.75
|
61.75
|
|
5 – 10
|
21.00
|
125.50
|
|
11 – 16
|
20.33
|
75.67
|
|
|
||
|
5 – 16
|
20.67
|
100.58
|
Okay. Now how did Martin perform within the division and outside the division. I am doing this to present, if any, huge variance in performance.
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2012 Martin's Rushing vs Division (NFC South)
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Game
|
Martin Rush Attempts
|
Martin Rush Yards
|
Martin's TDs
|
Rush Play %
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|||||||
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|
|||||||
|
1
|
Car
|
24
|
95
|
0
|
0.6
|
|
|
|
6
|
NO
|
16
|
85
|
1
|
0.36
|
|
|
|
10
|
Car
|
24
|
138
|
0
|
0.39
|
|
|
|
11
|
Atl
|
21
|
50
|
2
|
0.4
|
|
|
|
14
|
NO
|
9
|
16
|
0
|
0.23
|
|
|
|
16
|
Atl
|
28
|
142
|
1
|
0.4
|
|
|
|
Total
|
|
122
|
526
|
4
|
2.38
|
||
|
Avg
|
|
20.33
|
87.67
|
0.67
|
0.397
|
||
|
Y/A
|
4.31
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2012 Martin's Rushing vs Outside NFC South
|
|
||||||
|
|
Game
|
Martin Rush Attempts
|
Martin Rush Yards
|
Martin's TDs
|
Rush Play %
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
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|
|||||||
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|
|||||||
|
2
|
NYG
|
20
|
66
|
1
|
0.44
|
|
|
|
3
|
Dal
|
19
|
53
|
0
|
0.47
|
|
|
|
4
|
Was
|
8
|
33
|
0
|
0.32
|
|
|
|
5
|
KC
|
13
|
76
|
0
|
0.48
|
|
|
|
7
|
Min
|
29
|
135
|
1
|
0.53
|
|
|
|
8
|
Oak
|
25
|
251
|
4
|
0.52
|
|
|
|
9
|
SD
|
19
|
68
|
0
|
0.52
|
|
|
|
12
|
Den
|
18
|
56
|
0
|
0.35
|
|
|
|
13
|
Phi
|
28
|
128
|
1
|
0.48
|
|
|
|
15
|
StL
|
18
|
62
|
0
|
0.29
|
|
|
|
Total
|
|
197
|
928
|
7
|
4.4
|
||
|
Avg
|
|
19.7
|
92.8
|
0.7
|
0.44
|
||
|
Y/A
|
4.71
|
|
|
|
|
||
So there isn’t that huge a variance between rushing within the division and outside of it. Thus, we can conclude Martin will be consistent, with a baseline of 87 yards per game minimum. On a 16 game project of 87 yards per game would equate to 1392 total rush yards. Just in case some of you need help to see the lowest I think Martin should achieve, provided he play all 16 games. Yet, based upon the last 12 games where Martin averaged 100.58 yards per game, he would project to 1609.28 total yards rushed for 16 games.
But I advise caution. This team is designed for throwing and throwing deep. The play calling in the last six games favored passing heavily, as in a previous article I have written, yet it is recorded here that Martin’s average attempt barely changed between the middle six games to the last six games, but his rushing average dropped.
So how many yards will Martin earn this year rushing? Use the information above if you like. And if you do use it, find how many yards you think Martin will earn on average per game. Multiply it by 16 and there is your calculated projection.