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When forecasting win totals, I like to look at what betting markets think. They're far from perfect, but they have a few advantages over normal analysis. Mostly: they tend to be objective and relatively data-based rather than emotion-based. It's easy to be too positive or too negative if you're emotionally invested in a team, and this generally isn't the case for sports books. Unfortunately, those same sports really don't seem to like what the Bucs did.
The Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno was the first sportsbook to release their 2013 NFL win totals, and they set the initial line for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6.5 wins, according to Covers.com. Meanwhile, per CBS, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an over/under set at 7.5 wins with the LVH Superbook.
Predictably, Bucs fans disagree. A poll we ran a few days ago set the Bucs' wins at 11. That's a pretty massive gap between what sportsbooks think and what fans think, though that's probably not very surprising given the eternal optimism among fans. But given Las Vegas' reaction to the Bucs' offseason moves, perhaps we shouldn't be too positive about the team's chances this season.
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