NFL Draft 2013: Mike Glennon was a solid pick

The odd part is the majority of Glennon being a solid pick has more to do with Freeman and his contract situation. In a previous article/post, there many pundits thinking Freeman could be Joe Flacco and to my discovery, Freeman proved not to be as he was quite inconsistent. Coincidentally, Glennon is also being attached to becoming the next Joe Flacco. Recently, there were talks that we wanted Carson Palmer. So without further adieu, we have our stats table

Freeman's Career
Year	Games Played	Comp %	TD	INT
2009	10	54.5	10	18
2010	16	61.4	25	6
2011	15	62.8	16	22
2012	16	54.8	27	17
Total	57	233.5	78	63
Average	14.25	58.375	19.5	15.75

Flacco's Career
Year	Games Played	Comp %	TD	INT
2008	16	60	14	12
2009	16	63.1	21	12
2010	16	62.6	25	10
2011	16	57.6	20	12
2012	16	59.7	22	10
Total	80	303	102	56
Average	16	60.6	20.4	11.2

Palmer's Last Four Years
Year	Games Played	Comp %	TD	INT
2009	16	60.5	21	13
2010	16	61.8	26	20
2011	10	60.7	13	16
2012	15	61.1	22	14
Total	57	244.1	82	63
Average	14.25	61.025	20.5	15.75

I am not comparing Freeman to elite company here. (Okay, well Flacco was pretty elite during the playoffs that led to a Championship, but these stats of Flacco does not represent elite.) As you can tell, Flacco has a slightly higher completion rate, but a much lower interception rate while scoring almost a touchdown more than Freeman. Palmer, on the other hand, has a similar interception rate to Freeman, but throwing one more touchdown per season than Freeman and the most accurate of the three QBs presented in this article.

Last season, the Bucs were involved in 10 games where the difference between the two teams was eight points or less. Of those 10 games, we won only three games. Would a slight tick in efficiency matter for a QB? Definitely.

DATE	OPP	RESULT	Within 8 points or less	Losses
Sun 9/9	Vs CAR	W 16-10	Yes	WIN
Sun 9/16	@ NYG	L 34-41	Yes	LOSS
Sun 9/23	@DAL	L 10-16	Yes	LOSS
Sun 9/30	Vs WSH	L 22-24	Yes	LOSS
Sun 10/14	Vs KC	W 38-10
Sun 10/21	Vs NO	L 28-35	Yes	LOSS
Thu 10/25	@ MIN	W 36-17
Sun 11/4	@ OAK	W 42-32
Sun 11/11	Vs SD	W 34-24
Sun 11/18	@ CAR	W 27-21 (OT)	Yes	WIN
Sun 11/25	Vs ATL	L 23-24
			Yes	LOSS
Sun 12/2	@ DEN	L 23-31	Yes	LOSS
Sun 12/9	Vs PHI	L 21-23	Yes	LOSS
Sun 12/16	@ NO	L 0-41
Sun 12/23	Vs STL	L 13-28
Sun 12/30	@ ATL	W 22-17	Yes	WIN

Now that we have established that Freeman is inconsistent as well as performing below considered average QBs, we need to look at Freeman’s contract length. This coming season, 2013, is his last year under the rookie contract with Tampa Bay. Although Freeman had career numbers in 2012, those numbers did not translate into enough wins for the team. Freeman is still a quandary for this team and his inconsistencies are a reason for not having a contract extension already signed.

Revis, the new acquired Buccaneer pick, has just signed a $16 million a year contract. This puts a certain financial constraint to the team’s budget. If Freeman is re-signed, then rest assured he will not get a re-worked contract like an Eric Wright deal, which is for pennies. Freeman is slated to make about $8.43 million this year, with a cap hit of $9.76 million, as per spotrac.com. Is Freeman worth a hefty extension with the lack of consistency for his short career? That would be left for another article.

The back up QB is Dan Orlovsky. He is so thought provoking as an option at QB as he is at being cut and then being re-signed for much less with the same team. Not much else to say.

The whole meme this past off-season seemed to be a "win now" mode. With the off-season acquisition of safety Goldson and Revis Island, the monies spent on those two players alone gave the premonition that the organization wanted to win right away and were willing to pay for it. Coming into this draft, there were many positions to be filled such as a starting tight end, a third corner and defensive line depth. With the notion of not running RB Doug Martin into the ground, there is a need for improvement for a third down running back. And with fiscal responsibilities in mind, the organization could use another tackle in development as LOT Penn may have to be jettisoned or have his contract re-structured.

Who were available after QB Glennon was picked? OT Terron Armstead at #75. WR Keenan Allen with the 76^th pick, since all the viable TEs were snatched up before any of the previous Buc picks, then a slot receiver might be the alternate as a third option in the passing game. Defensive linemen Moore and Jenkins went off the board consecutively with picks 81 and 82.

Yet the QB position is, or now rather was, a major concern for the team’s future. The picking of a QB in the third, let alone Glennon, is still not a popular pick, but it is a viable long term solution should Freeman not pan out this coming season. Even if Freeman reproduces last year’s numbers this year, it may not be enough to consider re-signing him due to financial constraints.

So what logical reasoning is there in drafting a QB in this draft as opposed to next year or trading for a QB next year? Continuity. And the possibility of losing next year’s third round pick as a trading chip. Continuity in an offense pays off immediately as everyone should be on the same page. There should be less confusion as to who should have been where or where the QB should have thrown. A rookie QB can acclimate to the team’s nomenclature, the NFL’s speed, the recognition of defenses as well as focus on improving ones’ talent deficiencies. There exists a whole lot of goodness in being the understudy for a year that will pay dividends in the following year or years. That rookie could also be parlayed into a higher draft pick if the current QB improves at the same time.

The question that arises is why Glennon? From NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap1000000152578/article/mike-glennon-grades-out-as-a-future-nfl-franchise-quarterback

"Measuring in at 6-foot-6, 222 pounds with A-plus arm talent, Glennon is a prototypical pocket passer. He is at his best when working off five- and seven-step drops in the pocket, delivering accurate strikes to receivers on intermediate and deep routes. Whereas some quarterbacks are most comfortable piling up completions on a variety of dink-and-dunk throws, Glennon is the master of the pro throw, pushing the ball downfield on deep comebacks, square-ins and post-corner routes. Additionally, he excels at throwing vertical routes following strong play-action fakes in the backfield."

Okay, so he fits our offensive scheme. But why he was he not a higher draft pick? Also from NFL.com:

"Decision Making

Another area of concern regarding Glennon's game is his penchant for turnovers. He tossed 29 interceptions over the past two seasons, including 17 picks in 2012. Although those numbers certainly stand out on the stat sheet, it is important to note that Glennon attempted 1,017 passes in his 26 career starts. That breaks down to 39.1 attempts per game, which is a lot to ask of a quarterback in a vertical passing attack with a number of high-risk throws.

As I broke down the tape in search of an explanation for Glennon's alarming interception total, I noticed that most of his turnovers were the result of poor footwork leading to errant throws from the pocket. When Glennon fails to set his feet or properly step into his throws, his balls sail woefully off target. Additionally, he took too many chances attempting to squeeze balls into tight windows over the middle of the field. While some turnovers are expected in a high-risk offense, the fact that Glennon can reduce his miscues from the pocket with better footwork and mechanics is encouraging. Now, he must find a way to take some of the instruction that he receives from coaches and put it into practice on the field. Truthfully, every quarterback in the 2013 class must refine an area of his game to become a productive first-year starter. Glennon is definitely in that boat."

Epiphany! Glennon will not be a first-year starter, well hopefully he won’t be. Our QB coach will have a full year to correct that footwork because it seems Glennon relies so much on his arm strength that he will neglect technique.

Finally, why was he a good decision for the Bucs. Again, from NFL.com:

"Clutch Factor

Quarterbacks must be able to inspire confidence in their teammates by playing well in key moments. From executing flawless drives in two-minute situations to connecting on critical third-down plays in pivotal situations, the top quarterbacks in the NFL thrive under pressure. Glennon strikes me as a player who plays well in big games. This was particularly evident when I watched him lead his squad back from deficits against Florida State and North Carolina. He was outstanding in the UNC game, rallying his team from a 25-7 deficit. He finished the game completing 29 of 52 passes for 462 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. If not for the fact that his receivers dropped 11 balls in that contest, Glennon might have tossed for 500-plus yards (and the Wolfpack might have won, as opposed to losing in heartbreaking fashion).

Against Florida State, Glennon directed his troops back from an early 16-0 deficit to knock off the Seminoles at Carter-Finley Stadium. In doing so, he connected on 30 of 55 passes for 259 yards with two touchdowns, including the game winner with two seconds remaining on the clock. Most importantly, he converted three fourth-down passes, including one inside the 15-yard line on the game-winning drive. Given the importance of playing well in key moments, Glennon's display of poise and composure in the clutch suggests to me that he possesses the right mental makeup to be successful in the NFL."

The last QB that I recall that defeated the ‘Noles and had no real reason in beating the ‘Noles was a QB from a small school called Southern Miss. A gun slinger who never saw a window he could not force a ball into. His name is Brett Favre. I am not saying Glennon will turn into Favre, but I see more similarities with Favre than I do with Flacco or even Matty Ice.

In conclusion, with Freeman’s contract, the TE’s gone before Tampa’s picks in both the second and third round, grabbing Glennon before the rest of the competition drafted a QB, the Bucs ensured themselves a QB that not only fits their system, but one they can groom to possibly be the leader of the team. Glennon is not a popular pick. Nor is he a pick that can help immediately. But he is a solid pick that provides quality depth into the future either as a starter or as a tradable asset.