So the Jets don’t like our offer to trade for Darrelle Revis huh? A shame , what do we do next?
Simple truth: the Jets will slowly have the first rule of economics set in. It’s often misquoted to Adam Smith (who plagiarized it) but it’s very true:
Everything is worth what the purchaser is willing to pay. Nothing more, nothing less. - Publilius Syrus
It’s true of Revis’s services as well. So to determine what his trade value is we need to look at what the market (the 32 NFL franchises) are willing to pay for his services.
Examine what we know
1. The Jets will not accept a 3rd Rounder only for him. (It’s really simple but they would get a compensatory 3rd rounder next season for him if he walks as an unrestricted free agent). Please don’t argue that ours is higher than the 3rd round compensatory, it’s true but the value difference is virtually nil on picking spots in the 3rd round.
2. Revis can become an unrestricted free agent next season if he wishes (he does). He has a voidable contract after this season. He CANNOT be franchised because of a clause in his contract. He’s working with a relatively low salary (Cap number 4 million) this season. However next year he is seeking a contract between 14-16 million according to his agent’s stories. The 14-16 million dollar number seems about right, especially if he plays this season, is healthy, and is as dominant as usual.
3. If your price is higher than a 3rd rounder, no NFL team is willing to part with that for a "rental" player. They will all want to have the cap space to trade for Revis and give him a large raise this season so that they can sign him to a longer term deal. This means; even with creative accounting to trade for Revis right now, you need a) 4 million in cap space b) the ability to find 10+ million in cap space for this season. So who does this eliminate:
Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders, St.Louis Rams, San Francicso 49ers, NY Giants, Atlanta Falcons, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks ,Denver Broncos.
5. So who does that leave? 8 teams:
6. The Bucs have offered a 2nd round pick (plus other picks and Blount) according to most reports, so of those 8 teams which are seriously in play and could pay more you can eliminate Cleveland and Kansas City. Neither team is surrendering a top 10 pick and neither owns a second round pick so it’s just not going to happen. The Jaguars have a new GM and a new head coach and plenty of holes, thus far they have shown no interest in Revis and are unlikely to go after him based on the sheer number of holes they need to fill. You can also scratch Green Bay off the list, they have cap space for the moment, but they also have a huge concern for next season, if Joe Flacco is worth 100 million, what is Aaron Rodgers worth? The Bengals also do not make sense, they actually have CBs and their needs are at DT, LB and S.
7. Now who is left and what can they offer:
Indianapolis Colts – The Colts could conceivably part with a first round pick for Revis, whether they want to is another matter but they also do not have a second round pick (See Vontae Davis) and while they do need another CB to pair with Davis I’m not sure they want to wait until round 3 to start drafting with a sophmore QB.
Philadelphia Eagles – Cap space, a big need at CB and while they do not want to give up a top 5 pick they do have a second rounder. They could make room for Revis, they have for other CBs before; but I can’t see them offering more than a 2nd round pick this season a 3rd next and a day 3 selection. Right now Chip Kelly needs a plethora of players, one is not enough so gutting his future would be difficult for one player when you do not even have a QB. The Eagles have to consider the possibility that they may be drafting a QB next season.
8. This brings me by full circle back to Tampa. The message is crystal clear SIMPLE, DO NOT BID AGAINST YOURSELF. Only the Eagles can present the Jets a 2nd round selection this season.