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Football Outsiders' SackSEER looks at the Defensive End Prospects

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And it concludes that Von Miller will be a terrific pass rusher.

Okay, so I guess you didn't need SackSEER to tell you that. But it's still an interesting statistic. It takes into account a player's college production, but also looks at his performance in various workouts as an indicator of potential. It's somewhat inconsistent so far, missing on some great prospects including Jason Pierre-Paul, but it's still a pretty decent indicator. And it's particularly relevant for the Bucs this year, who have to find pass rushers in the draft. So let's take a look at SackSEER's findings. 

Justin Houston is the first player SackSEER singles out behind Von Miller. The system is predicting 26 sacks over 5 years which is far behind Von Miller, but still ahead of everyone else. Justin Houston had an impressive combine, a productive college career and an impressive skillset but he's never talked about as a top prospect. Why not? Mostly because he's not that strong at the point of attack, despite having adequate size for a defensive end at 270lbs. But if SackSEER is right about Justin Houston's potential as a pass rusher, can the Bucs afford not to take him? 

Right behind Houston we find Bucs fan-favorite Ryan Kerrigan. Not surprising since Kerrigan had a good combine and has been very productive throughout his career. There's not much to say on Kerrigan we don't already know, so I'll just move on to Da'Quan Bowers. This is where being a one-year wonder and performing at his pro day with an injured knee hurts Bowers: SackSEER doesn't really like him. It doesn't hate him either, but it certainly doesn't see him as a first-round pick. It'd be interesting to see how much SackSEER would like Da'Quan Bowers if he had worked out on a healthy knee. It could make a big difference. 

After Bowers we get to Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn, in that order. Aldon Smith is really similar to Jason Pierre-Paul, with the exception of not going to Junior College, and SackSEER seems to have missed on Pierre-Paul. It's not surprising then that Aldon Smith doesn't do as well here as he does with most evaluators. Similarly, the sysem can't handle Robert Quinn's lack of a junior season and lack of overall stats. These exceptions make evaluating these players with this system pretty pointless. But that's not true for Jabaal Sheard, who SackSEER loathes as a player, projecting just 10.6 sacks in 5 years. He struggled through all his workouts and this really hurt him in this metric. I think SackSEER is a bit too down on Sheard, but I don't think he's the first-round talent some people think he is.