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Tangible Expectations Part 2

Again, it seems to be the consensus that the Bucs will improve next season. The question is how much. I have tried to put numbers on my expectations for the team. I would also note there is nothing scientific about this. It is simply looking at teams from previous seasons, how we compare to them and what I think the Bucs are capable of. These are what is reasonable...not what is wishful thinking. Also feel free to hold me to these at the end of the season.  Here is Part 1 which includes team and offensive expectations. Today I will include defense and some key individual players.



2009 2010
Points 400 370
Plays 1039 980
YPP 5.6 5.3
Fum. Recovered 10 11
INT 19 20
YPC 4.8 4.2
NetYrd/Pass 6.5 6.0
FirstDown by Penalty 24 26
First Downs 324 300


I think the biggest difference comes in them getting off the field. If the amount of plays drops by 60 (or almost 4 a game), that's HUGE. Gives the offense one extra drive, possibly prevents 3 from turning into 7, etc. I fully expect the defense to keep games more competitive this year. While I think there will be improvement, I think I probably have more tempered expectations for rookies than yall do.

For Individual Goals, Hit the jump

We'll start with the one player everyone is relying on, Josh Freeman. Obviously I will not include season totals in this chart because he played only a half a season.

2009 2010
TD 24
INT 20
TD% 3.4 4.0
INT% 6.2 3.9
Sack Rate 6.5 6.3
Cmplt % 54.5 60%
QBRating 59.8 75%
Y/A 6.4 6.6
Y/G 185.5 199


I think the biggest improvement we should see is a decrease in how often he throws INT's. Freeman had 3 games where he threw 3 picks or more. That is out of 8 games, I think we'll see him have that many terrible games for the duration of the season in '10.

Carnell Williams

2009 2010
Carries 211 225
Yards 823 875
YPC 3.9 3.9
Fum 1 3
Rush TD's 4 5
Rec 28 33
Rec Yards 217 225
YPR 7.8 6.8
Rec. TD's 3 3


I would expect Olsen to run the ball more, but I also think he will keep the balance between Williams and Ward roughly the same. I think that's a mistake, but I also hate the RB by Committee, so what do I know.

Kellen Winslow

2009 2010
Rec 77 80
Yards 884 915
YPR 11.5 11.4
TD 5 4


As with Williams, fans of the Bucs will be holding their breath hoping Winslow can stay healthy. If he does I expect the same production out of him. Obviously one more year with Freeman makes you think that these numbers would signficantly increase, but I also think hope we run the ball more. If so, this is an indication that Winslow would be an even bigger part of the offense.

Sorry for the short piece....gotta run.