FanPost

2015 NFL Draft : Thou shalt not talk Mariota vs. Winston

Welcome friends, frenemies, Bucs Nation members, newcomers , countrymen, football fans from overseas.

Take a deep breath because I get the strong feeling "We need this" we need something other than Mariota and Winston talk, No I'm not faulting Sander at all for posting it daily, he needs to, it is what most casual fans wish to discuss. However there are quite a few of us who want to talk about "Anything Else" related to the draft and I assure you 234 other players will be selected.

I struggled with where to begin this post: First I'd like to say that yes my annual draft guide has been published and you can still acquire it my e-mail TheDraftPhantom@yahoo.com. I should also thank the kind woman who even though the guide is free as promised, she decided to "pay" by sending me a picture of herself on the beach in a bikini. However, to answer both your questions here: (1) I do not regularly make it to Tampa though I do still go down for Bucs games (2) My wife does not like me taking young attractive women on dates to Buccaneer games. I'd also like to thank the male members of Bucs Nation for not sending pictures of themselves similarly clad. Hmm...where to start on the draft.... how about safety, specifically free safety.

Tampa Bay does seem to be in the market for a free safety. That makes sense, Chris Conty is injury prone but could prove an ideal option should we want to ween a rookie free safety (usually a recipe to have the back half of your Tampa 2 lightly toasted) in the flow of our defense. Perhaps Conty can man the position the first half of the season then yield the position to our future starter when Conty inevitably goes down with injury. So here are my top 4 "Likely" Free Safeties.

Derron Smith 5’10" 200lbs SR(RS) Fresno St. [9.85][I-15][PV-10]

Smith is a good athlete and terrific football player with fabulous game skills, he’s a natural instinctive player with good range. Smith’s career at Fresno started off slowly he was a reserve freshman making 30 tackles in 13 appearances his first season and his sophomore year was cut short in a game against North Dakota State where he broke his arm just 3 games in. Smith would miss the remainder of the season and finish with 16 tackles and a pair of pass breakups. The NCAA would grant him a medical redshirt and he would return as a full time starter the following season, this is when Smith took off; he posted 79 tackles , 2 pass breakups , and 6 interceptions. A full time starter again the following season he was also a standout making 87 tackles, 6 pass breakups, and 7 interceptions. This past season he started 14 times making 97 stops, 7 pass breakups, and an interception. Smith also played the entire season with a sports hernia injury which required off-season surgery and held him out of the combine. Healthy enough by his pro day, Derron posted a 4.6 40 , 34inch vertical, 6.94 three cone drill, and did 18 reps at 225, the 18 reps was a little unexpected but everything else was about in line with expected results.
In coverage, Smith is like the naval observatory’s atomic clock because you can set your time to him and know he’ll be in exactly the right spot at the right time. He’s just instinctive as a player and particularly savy in zone coverage as a single high safety. He’s not going to fooled on play action fakes and obtains proper depth within the coverage shell and would be an ideal fit for a team either looking for a cover 2 compliment or someone to be the final line of defense in cover 1. He’s above average but not great in man coverage, he’ll be able to handle most HB’s and slot receivers in man coverage, though bigger TE’s and WR’s are going to be able to post him up due to size. As a run defender Smith won’t make many highlight reel hits and he’s going to get knocked backwards by ball carriers at the point of attack. He does a good job of diagnosing but he does get swept away with well blocked run plays at the second level. His pursuit angles are ok but not great but he’s not really an enforcer at any level of defense. Smith does have very good ball skills for making interceptions in the secondary and is actually pretty instinctual returning the ones he keeps to flip field position around. All in all Smith is a little shorter than ideal, a little slower straight line, and lacks knockout power; however is real value is in his ability to turn the ball over and his reliability in zone coverage is simply too good to be ignored. He’s a very good football player who is an average athlete at the NFL level. It’s likely with that combination he’ll play a very long time as a plus but just outside of impact starter level in the NFL.


Adrian Amos 6’0" 218lbs SR FS Penn State [9.11][PV-10]
Amos is an under-respected safety from a big school who while a liability in run support is likely to excel as a coverage safety in an ever more pass happy NFL. Amos is outstanding in zone coverage and probably the best of all safeties in this class for a cover one or cover two role. That said currently his tackling is a little sloppy so I wouldn’t think he’d appeal to a press man team where he could end up as the last line of defense. Amos started off as a reserve safety and kick returner at Penn St., he made just 13 tackles but broke up 5 pass deflections and made an interception. As a sophomore he made 44 combined stops, 5 PD’s , and 2 interceptions. Adrian was used in some slot situations as a junior and made 50 stops (4TFL) , 5 PD’s , an interception, and 2.5 sacks off the corner. He stuck mostly at free safety this past season with 42 stops , 7 PD’s, and 3 INT’s. Amos clocked a 4.56 40 at the combine (4.37 at his prod day) , a top 3 positional finish in short shuttle, and an impressive 21 reps at 225 during his pro day.


Amos is really fluid in space and has very strong recovery speed allowing him to close windows and shut down passing lanes that initially appear open. I think the biggest knock people come up with against him is that he’s not a gambler, not an impact player who likes to turn the ball over. That said on the interceptions he has made he’s returned them for a 19.3 clip. The ability to play slot corner at times is a major plus, Amos wouldn’t be a cornerback you would want to write home about but he’d be passible if he had taken that career path. He didn’t , he a safety with the instincts to play the position and to play it at a very high level. Even with the instincts he’s suspect as a tackler, he’s a striker without incredible power who doesn’t wrap up. At times he looks cautious and doesn’t want to sacrifice his body to make a play, especially if he’s in traffic. The overall diagnosis is correct, but he could certainly play with more urgency. I give him half a pass here as most of missed tackles have come against running backs rather than receivers. He is dependable however and capable of climbing the ladder, he doesn’t yield home run hits as a safety and doesn’t buy into double moves if forced into coverage. Amos is exactly what a "free" safety is designed to do, erase mistakes and closing passing lanes. He brings all the basics of a competent starter he just doesn’t bring a great many wow plays to the safety position in total.

Cody Prewitt 6’2" 208lbs FS Mississippi [9.1][PV-10]
Prewitt is in many ways one of the more overlooked safeties in this class, if that holds and for how long is an interesting question. He’s neither loud nor flashy but does his job and does it well. I still think the biggest problem for Prewitt comes from looking the part of a big power safety but playing the game with a long reach and coverage instincts. Prewitt started off on the same track at Ole Miss, seeing action at SS in 12 games while starting 4, he made 32 stops and an interception. Prewitt shifted to free safety the following season, started all 13 games, he made 80 stops, broke up 2 passes and made 4 interceptions. In 13 games again as a junior he made 71 stops , 7 PBU’s, and 6 Interceptions. This past season Prewitt logged 64 stops, 2 PBU’s and 3 INT’s. Prewitt’s got straight line speed and some vertical ability, he clocked a 4.6 at the combine (though a 4.46 at his pro day), a 35 inch vertical, and a pedestrian 7.12 three cone drill which squares with his game tape.


Prewitt is a little stiff in coverage and if forced to play man coverage has too high of a back pedal to doesn’t turn laterally well enough to handle slot options. On the other hand he does have enough length to be on the pesky side for bid bodies tight ends. His instincts and ability to read though are top notch. He can quickly diagnose plays and doesn’t get sucked in by play action passes often. He also is very good at diagnosing running lanes, on the other hand his instincts are somewhat counter-acted because he can washed away in a sea of bodies and doesn’t disengage quickly. That goes back to my original point, people are looking for a big hitter because of his size and straight line speed and that’s not what your getting. He plays well as a single high or cover 2 safety and plays with high effort all the way through the play, he logged 5 forced fumbles and 4 recoveries in his career through rip and strip opportunities on receivers. He consistently makes interceptions owing largely to a wide catching radius and longer arms, he doesn’t do much with them afterwards but he’s very solid. He also shows the occasional ability to pop a slot receiver over the middle and break up plays with hard hits especially those on underneath routes.


Damarious Randall 5’11" 196lbs SR FS Arizona St. [8.9][PV-10][I-5]

Randall has an exceptionally exciting blend of raw ability and intensity, he’s still very raw though having originally chosen to pursue a baseball career for two seasons before a shoulder injury derailed that. He became a JUCO standout at Mesa Community College after baseball at Butler, including being a First Team All-Western First States Football League playing corner and returning kicks. Since then he has become a standout safety in the Pac-12. Randall has started the past two seasons, as a junior he started 10 of the 12 games, making 71 stops for 3 pass breakups, and 3 interceptions. As a senior Randall made 106 stops, 9 PBU’s, and 3 interceptions. He’s dramatically fast, 2 of his 6 INT’s have gone back the distance for the touchdowns and he’s also capable of playing one on one which brings added value.

The mediocre grade is a compromise score for me, yes I see the potential and the huge impact plays; however I think people have also overlooked the missed tackles and gambles that didn’t pay off. He needs to learn to play more under control otherwise Randall is likely to be a permanent dog house resident. Randalls has plenty of speed, he clocked a 4.46 on the combine which shows up on tape though he takes a lot of false steps and does not yet show a good feel for zone coverage. Randall did show the capacity to play one on one with slot wide receivers which is premium skills for safeties. Randall is an impact but not excellent tackler, at times he over pursues though he does get there in a hurry and has plenty of recovery speed. He also times up blitzes well and can add value as a blitzing safety. That speed, agility, and his natural fearlessness make Randall an A+ strike, he forced 4 fumbles the past two seasons and can lay some highlight reel hits. His hands are very plus and he can make interceptions easily, he uses a big vertical jump (38 inch at the combine) to climb the ladder nad make a play. He’s clearly still a work in progress, the potential is fantastic , I hope he gets there but I wouldn’t gamble on him too early until he learns to play under control.

All right I've started us off with free safety, but you are free to discuss any player. However please be respectful of those with Winston vs. Mariota fatigue. There are plenty of places to do that on Bucs Nation.... talk about any other potential draftee here.

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