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Why I No Longer Think There is a Debate for the Number One Pick


Let me start by saying I am on the pro-Mariota side of the fence. I honestly think he will be the better QB long term. While Mariota has the higher ceiling in my opinion, Winston has the higher floor. Assuming he stays out of trouble, I can't picture a scenario where he isn't a top 15 QB in the NFL. So why else has my prediction changed? A couple of reasons. Lovie, Licht and the Glazers are all comfortable with Winston, the Glazer's want to sell tickets, and Winston is a better fit with our current personnel.

Having the three biggest decision makers on the team give you a thumbs up is always good. This isn't a huge factor to me honestly. Of course Winston is going to be on his best behavior during the draft process. I personally think Lovie convinced Licht of Winston and the two of them have convinced the Glazers. The Glazers publicly stating they are comfortable with Winston isn't what changed my mind, but it certainly contributed.

Second, the Glazers want to sell tickets. It's no surprise the Buc's attendance has been nothing short of terrible for the last couple years. Why wouldn't it be? The product they've thrown out there is barely worth watching on TV when they're not blacked out. Winston has a huge fanbase here in Florida for obvious reasons. Even if the Buc's aren't successful next year, many fans will journey across the state just to watch Jameis play (sorry, I don't think Glennon will start for very long, if at all). If Winston somehow is able to rack up some early wins next year and keep the team close to playoff contention, then I think there will be a buzz around the city that hasn't been around since the Super Bowl win.

Lastly, and most importantly, Winston is a better fit with our current offense personnel. Like I said, I don't see Glennon starting very long, if at all next year. I have no doubt that Mariota will be able to learn a pro-style offense, but not in one offseason. If he's as brilliant as I think he is then I could see him starting within 2 years. Lovie doesn't have 2 years though. Starting Glennon next year will max us out at 6 wins and a switch to Mariota the next year likely wouldn't have us get to 8. Does anyone think Lovie will survive after 3 straight losing seasons? No. The receivers Mariota is used to are burners who cut in and out of routes easily and quickly. Evans, Jackson, and ASJ are not that type of receiver. Their version of being open is vastly different then what Mariota has seen. Winston is more familiar with how our receivers get open. I've often penalized Winston for "winging" the ball into spaces and relying too much on arm strength, but as long as he throws it high, that might work pretty well with Evans and VJax. With our Offensive Line being truly offensive, Winston's awareness in the pocket will be vital to his/the team's success next year. Evans is the type of receiver that feasts off broken plays. The guy just knows where coverage is breaking down. This is what made Johnny Manziel look better than what he was. Combine that ability with Winston's ability to keep his eyes downfield after a play breaks down (something I've praised him on) and that combo looks pretty good.

There you have it. I am officially switching to the dark side. Again, I prefer Mariota and that won't change, but as far as who I think the Buc's will end up taking, it's without a doubt Winston. This is all under the assumption that Winston stays out of trouble for the next month or so until the draft. I think we can all agree, if he messes up he likely won't even be a first round pick....let alone the number one pick. Let me just make one thing clear, I'll support whichever QB the Buc's take at #1. Just take a QB. Don't screw this up Lovie and Licht!

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