2014 NFL Win Projections: Buccaneers at 7 wins per Football Outsiders and Las Vegas

Sean Gardner

With free agency and the 2014 NFL draft in the books, we have a very good idea of what each team will look like come opening day of the 2014 NFL season. And that means we're going to get some third-party win projections for the NFL. Those aren't too positive about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' chances.

Objective win projections are fun. We can all scream and yell at them as fans, because that's what we do when we think our team is being disrespected. At the end of the day, though, third-party outlets tend to not be overly biased -- it doesn't suit their needs. So those 

Football Outsiders thinks the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will end the season with a 7-9 record. The advanced statistics analysts give the Bucs 7.5 mean wins in 2014, just a half-win ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, barely behind the Carolina Panthers (7.9 mean wins) and well behind the New Orleans Saints (10.7 mean wins).

Aaron Schatz gives an explanation for why their model isn't so very impressed with the Bucs' offseason moves so far. 

Tampa Bay is a colossal question mark. The Bucs were 19th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, suggesting they far outplayed their 4-12 record. Normally that indicates significant improvement the next year because DVOA is much more consistent than wins and losses. However, the Bucs have all-new coaches, which on average tends to hold a team back a bit. Given the messy situation with last year's coaches, you would think that was less likely to be the case here, except the new coaches are so intent on changing schemes that they jettisoned one of the two or three best cornerbacks in the game and brought in a lifetime backup quarterback coming off a completely unrepeatable half-season hot streak.

Of course, the alternative to that backup quarterback with an unrepeatable hot streak was to either start a drafted rookie (which tends to work out badly in the first year) or to start a second-year player who did significantly worse than said backup quarterback on a hot streak. 

Meanwhile, Las Vegas has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 7 wins as well, or at least the Hilton does, ahead of just six other teams. Another objective, third-party projection saying the Buccaneers are screwed. Ruh-roh. 

Last year, when most of the Bucs fan base was pretty optimistic on the team's chances (which ended with bitter disappointment), Outsiders and Las Vegas were both a lot more sensible about the whole thing. Las Vegas projected them for 7.5 wins, while Football Outsiders thought they'd win 8 games. Amusingly, both projections are higher than their projections for this season -- but still short of where the Bucs wanted (and want) to be: in the playoffs. 

This has been a fairly consistent theme for years on end. Bucs fans are optimistic. Objective outlets a lot less so. Objective outlets end up being correct. Except in 2010 -- when the Bucs went 10-6, and still missed the playoffs. It's getting a little old. Time to change it up. 

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bucs Nation

You must be a member of Bucs Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bucs Nation. You should read them.

Join Bucs Nation

You must be a member of Bucs Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bucs Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker