Finding a draft-day trade for the Buccaneers

Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Trade value is a complicated thing, as is finding a draft-day trade.

So you have the seventh pick overall in the NFL draft and you want to trade down.  Do you know the exchange rate?  Is there an exchange rate?  By the seventh pick, the "can't miss prospect" will be gone and so there goes a lot of leverage to gain a better exchange rate.  Thanks to fellow poster, TooFamiliar17, I will share two charts from this research site:  How to Value NFL Draft Picks.

Jimmy Johnson Table

Here is a chart develop by head coach Jimmy Johnson of the Dallas Cowboys in the 1980's.

Draftvalue1_medium

via harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com

Meers Table

And here is another chart developed by Kevin Meers, using Pro-Football-Reference's metric called Career Approximate Value.

Value3_medium

via harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com

Here is a line graphic to displays both charts as well as the CAV per pick.  Red Line is Johnson table. Black Line is Meers table. The fluctuating Blue Line is the CAV at that pick.  I would look at the Blue Line instead because it does show a trend and how later picks are more valuable than earlier ones such as early second round picks versus late first round picks.  And yet, it is still a guessing game and dependent upon scouts, schemes, and coaching along with the player's determination.

Career_medium

via harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com

Let us make up an example, say trade the 7th overall pick for the 22nd overall pick.  What can we expect?  Using the Jimmy Johnson table, the 7th overall pick has a value of 1500 points and the 22nd overall pick has a value of 780 points.  The difference is 720 points.  So the team holding the 22nd pick must come up with 720 points to cover the value of a 7th overall pick.  Basically, the rest of that draft is owed plus more, provided the rest of the picks are 22nd in each round.  In fact, there is still a surplus of 83.3 points.  This would mean the team holding the 22nd overall pick will have to trade one of its pick for the following draft to cover the point spread.

If we use the Meers table via CAV, then the 7th overall pick has a value of 329.4 points and the 22nd overall pick has a value of 232.1 points.  The difference is 97.3 points.  Assuming the team holding the 22nd overall pick drafts 22nd in each round, then the closest point value to 97.3 is to be found in the third round, a value of 107.1.  It is in excess of about 10 points, but that team is moving up to the 10 echelon.

The example provided above reveals a disparity in results.  The Jimmy Johnson table favors considerably the owner of the top pick, where it requires all the one year's draft picks as well as one for the following draft.  Whereas the Meers table is a meager first and third round pick for the seventh overall draft pick.

Using 2012 Bucs' Draft Trades

In 2012, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded their fifth overall pick for the seventh overall pick and a fourth round pick, the 101st overall pick, to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Then, at the bottom of the first round, the Bucs make another trade to move into the latter parts of the first round.  Bucs send a second round pick (36th overall) and a the fourth round they added from the Jacksonville trade (101st overall) to the Denver Broncos for their late first round pick (31st overall) and fourth round pick (126th overall).  Finally, the Bucs traded up back into the second round after trading away their second round pick in the previous trade.  Our loveable pirates traded a third (68th overall) and fourth round (126th overall) pick to the Texans for their second round (58th overall) and seventh round (233rd overall) pick.  If you were lost in the myriad of trades and numbers, then you are in luck as we have yet another chart coming your way:

2012 Tampa Bay Bucs Draft Day Trades

(Using Meers' CAV Table)

Trade Transaction

Team

Bucs

Jags

1

Round

1

Total

1

4

Total

Overall

5th

7th

101st

Points

357.9

357.9

329.4

94.7

424.1

Bucs traded down.

Difference

66.2

66.2 points is equivalent to a 5th round selection, pick 145.

2

Team

Bucs

Broncos

Round

2

4

Total

1

4

Total

Overall

36th

101st

31st

126

Points

171.4

94.7

266.1

203

77.5

280.5

Bucs traded up.

Difference

-14.4

14.4 points is not equilvent to any 7 round draft pick.

3

Team

Bucs

Texans

Round

3

4

Total

2

7

Total

Overall

68

126

58

233

Points

124.7

77.5

202.2

136.3

36.2

172.5

Bucs traded up.

Difference

29.7

29.7 points is not equivalent to any 7 round draft pick.

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/2012.htm

* Note: Table ends with pick 224.  I continued to progression of -0.04 per pick to pick 233

2012 Tampa Bay Bucs Draft Day Trades

(Using Johnson's Table)

Trade Transaction

Team

Bucs

Jags

1

Round

1

Total

1

4

Total

Overall

5th

7th

101st

Points

1700

1700

1500

96

1596

Bucs traded down.

Difference

-104

104 points is equivalent to a 4th round selection, pick 99.

2

Team

Bucs

Broncos

Round

2

4

Total

1

4

Total

Overall

36th

101st

31st

126

Points

540

96

636

600

46

646

Bucs traded up.

Difference

-10

10 points is equivalent to a 7th round selection, pick 206.

3

Team

Bucs

Texans

Round

3

4

Total

2

7

Total

Overall

68

126

58

233

Points

250

46

296

320

2.1

322.1

Bucs traded up

Difference

-26.1

26.1 points is equivalent to a 6th round selection, pick 166.

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/2012.htm

Let us compare the two tables, M for Meers and J for Johnson.  In transactions 1, M shows we gained good value while J reveals we were losers on the trade.  For transaction 2, the Broncos lost value in both tables and both tables show negligible losses.  The third transaction has M showing the Texans gained good value while J shows a loss of value.  So based upon these results, it looks as though the Meers table is what teams adhere more towards.

Utilizing the Bucs' 2012 trade really is a microscopic sample.  I will add two more trades from 2012 draft to get a little more perspective.

RGIII trade

2012 RG3 Trade

(Using Meers' CAV Table)

Trade Transaction

Team

St. Louis

Washington

1

Round

1

Total

1

2

1 (2013)

1(2014)

Total

Overall

2nd

6th

39th

22nd

2nd

Points

435.7

435.7

342.4

164.1

232.1

435.7

1174.3

Difference

738.6

The difference is an overpayment of a first overall and another first round, 20th pick.

2012 RG3 Trade

(Using Johnson Table)

Trade Transaction

Team

St. Louis

Washington

1

Round

1

Total

1

2

1 (2013)

1(2014)

Total

Overall

2nd

6th

39th

22nd

2nd

Points

2600

2600

1600

510

780

2600

5490

Difference

2890

2890 points are equivalent to another first round pick, 1st or 2nd overall.

Trade Transaction

Team

St. Louis

Washington

What if Washington won the Super Bowl in 2013 and 2014?

Round

1

Total

1

2

1 (2013)

1(2014)

Total

Overall

2nd

6th

39th

32nd

32nd

Points

2600

2600

1600

510

590

590

3290

Difference

690

690 points equates to another first round pick, 27th overall.

Both tables show that Washington overpaid tremendously.  Is Robert Griffin the third worth that much?  Is that the going price for a potential franchise quarterback?  Apparently, this trade is just that extreme.

Trent Richardson Trade

2012 Vikings Trade with Browns

(Using Meers' CAV Table)

Trade Transaction

Team

Minn

Jags

1

Round

1

Total

1

4

5

7

Total

Overall

3rd

4th

118th

139th

211th

Points

401.3

401.3

376.9

82.6

69.7

36.3

459.5

Minnesota trades down.

Differnce

58.2

58.2 points is an overpayment of the first pick in the sixth round.

2012 Vikings Trade with Browns

(Using Johnson's Table)

Trade Transaction

Team

Minn

Jags

1

Round

1

Total

1

4

5

7

Total

Overall

3rd

4th

118th

139th

211th

Points

2200

2200

1800

58

36.5

8

1858

Minnesota trades down.

Differnce

-342

This trade is a negative 342 points in the Johnson model, a second round pick at pick 56.

Within this trade, the Meers table signifies that Minnesota received great value for trading down one spot.  But with the Johnson table, this trade was a massive underpayment.

It is safe to say that the trading metric is closer towards the Meers table than the 1980's version of it constructed by Jimmy Johnson.  With that now stated, we can use the Meers table as a more credible trading metric.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the seventh overall pick.  With so many smoke signals, there is a very good possibility we may trade out of the seventh pick and go lower.  Get your trading hats on, Bucs Nation, because we want to hear your trade proposals!

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