We're all idiots when it comes to this stuff.. it's all speculation and nobody knows what is going to happen. So why do a mock draft? Because they're fun, and we love fantasizing about various outcomes. I'll go the first 20 picks because I'm lazy and anything beyond that is just way too unknown. The top 20 are much easier to speculate.
#1 - Houston Texans select Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)
They have all the other pieces for a "win-now" team. Quality RB, Defense (when healthy), WR's. Although he showed some promise, Case Keenum just isn't the guy to take the Texans to where they want to be: playing in the post-season. I like Bortles the best out of the "Big 3" QBs - he's got the most upside and all the physical traits they are wanting. I think the Texans see Mario Williams all over again when it comes to Clowney.
#2 - St. Louis Rams select Greg Robinson (T, Auburn)
This is the Rams last chance to evaluate if Bradford is their QB. To do that, they need to protect him. They got kind of lucky that they were able to retain Saffold - who can play G or T. But they need some elite quality depth opposite Jake Long, as he is coming off his ACL tear from last year. Robinson fits the role they need perfectly.
#3 - Jacksonville Jaguars select Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)
The Jaguars had arguably the 4th/5th best offseason by adding a lot of pieces that upgraded several areas of their team. The one they didn't address? QB. Jaguar fans have been on the "Suck for Teddy" campaign since the beginning of the season. Bridgewater is from Florida, and he's more polished than Manziel. Jaguar fans get their guy.
Trade: Vikings swap #8 pick and one of their 3rd round picks (they have 2 this year) for the #4 Pick from Cleveland
Browns Logic: Cleveland still has a very capable QB in Hoyer (coming off an injury) and don't want to risk the #4 on Manziel. They've got other areas they can improve while avoiding a big risk on Johnny Football.
Vikings Logic: They want to make a splash and take a risk on the kid - they've got Cassel as a legitimate mentor for Johnny and they want to excite their fans and see if they can work Johnny's magic while Adrian Peterson still has his health.
#5 - TRADE St. Louis Rams (from Oakland Raiders) select Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Trade: Rams swap #13 pick, a 4th round, and one of their 6th round compensatory picks for the #5 from Oakland.
Raiders logic: They added 2 pricey DE this offseason, so grabbing Clowney at this spot doesn't make sense for them, and they already have a solid 1-3 WR corp with James Jones, Denarius Moore, and Rod Streater. They'll look for a DB or DT in the #13 spot.
Rams Logic: Like I mentioned earlier, this is the last year the Rams need to see if Bradford is their QB. They've already got a great pass-rushing combo of Long and Quinn, so Clowney isn't need. They have a slew of quality #2/#3 WR's, but don't have a true #1. Watkins is that #1. Congrats Rams, that RG3 trade is working wonders for you.
#6 - Atlanta Falcons select Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
Atlanta can't believe Clowney has fallen this far, and they need a dynamic pass-rusher. Although all signs point to them running a 3-4 defense, Clowney has defined himself entering the draft as a great DE no matter the formation. Falcons fans rejoice.
#7 - TRADE Buffalo Bills (from Tampa Bay) select Jake Matthews (OT, Texas A&M)
Trade: Buffalo Bills swap #9 pick and 4th Round pick for Tampa Bay's #7 pick
Bucs Logic: Licht has been adamant that he wants more picks, and dropping only 2 spots in the draft won't hurt them based off needs.
Bills Logic: They don't want to risk losing out on both Lewan and Mathews when OT is their biggest need. They get too nervous knowing that the #7 and #8 picks, the Bucs and Browns, have o-line needs as well and don't want to risk losing an elite tackle like Mathews.
#8 - Cleveland Browns (from Vikings) select Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan)
There are several quality mid-round Qb's in this draft, and like I previously mentioned, Cleveland is just too unsure about taking a chance on Manziel. O-line is the one area where they could get a quality value/upgrade at with #8. By drafting Lewan, they forge one of the best o-lines in the league with Pro-bowl LT Joe Thomas, Pro-bowl C Alex Mack, slide Mitchell Swartz to G and plug Lewan in at RT. That'll provide an incredible line for their 2nd Round RB pick and protection for the QB they'll take in Round 3.
#9 - Tampa Bay (from Buffalo) selects Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
The real need for Tampa Bay would be G, but trading out of the top 10 to get a G and an extra pick just doesn't make sense. Tampa's offense needs the most help, and drafting the top offensive playmaker available is the wisest decision. Ebron is a freak with Jimmy Graham-potential written all over him. This provides 3 truly legitimate receiving threats alongside Jackson and Williams (1 decent season from Tim Wright isn't enough to go on). Look for TB to draft a G in the 2nd, and a WR in the 3rd.
#10 - Detroit Lions select Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (S, Alabama)
The Lions need as much secondary help as they can get. There a lot more above-average CB in this draft than Safeties, so taking Clinton Dix over a CB in the first round is the smartest decision. Ha-Ha is the only Safety worth a Top 15 pick. The Lions get appropriate value with their #10 pick that help fills a glaring weakness with an elite player.
#11 - Tennessee Titans select Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St)
Even with Mack still on the board, the Titans need to grab an elite CB to replace Alterraun Verner. A lot of analysts prefer Justin Gilbert to Dennard, but I see the Titans going with Dennard. The film on him is just incredible.
#12 - New York Giants select Khalil Mack (OLB, Buffalo)
Mack finally comes off the board. The Giants have a history of having excellent pass-rushers and after losing Tuck, they need to plug in an immediate impact player. Unexpectedly, Mack falls to them and they don't pass him up. Although their other biggest need is at WR, the depth for WR is so deep they can afford to wait a round or two.
#13 - Oakland Raiders (from Rams) select Aaron Donald (DT, Pitt)
Like I previously mentioned, the Raiders have much bigger current needs than a QB, including CB and DT. Adding in a top-notch DT in Donald would complete a run of offseason D-line signings that need to offset their losses of Houston and Walker. DJ Hayden showed some promise last year, so don't expect the Raiders to use up another 1st round pick on a CB, they'll wait until the 2nd or 3rd round for that.
#14 - Chicago Bears select Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St)
Although they retained Charles "Peanut" Tillman, the Bears secondary remains the biggest question mark heading into 2014. They add arguably the #1 CB prospect and start their rebuild of a traditionally great defense. Look for them to draft a S and DT in the later rounds.
#15 - Pittsburgh Steelers select Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
With the departures of Cotchery and Sanders, that leaves just Antonio Brown as the sole receiving threat for Pittsburgh (don't say Heath Miller...). Yikes. Mike Evans gives Big Ben a Big Target that is desperately needed for that offense to compete. Their other needs include CB and DL, but Evans has too much potential as a #1 WR to pass up.
#16 - Dallas Cowboys select Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri)
The Cowboys are in desperate need of D-Line help after Ware's departure, and were already thin with the pass-rush. Kony and Dee Ford are neck in neck for being the #2 best DE in the draft, but look for Jones to go with the Missouri product. He's got the better frame for a 4-3 DE and Ford projects better in the 3-4 scheme.
#17 - Baltimore Ravens select Zack Martin (OT, Notre Dame)
Before they figure out if this is Ray Rice's last hoorah with the team, they need to give him some quality bodies up front to even give him or Flacco a chance at propelling the offense. Oher's gone, thus leaving Tackle as a big need to go along with their other need of C. Zack Martin is perfect value for them at #17, look for additional line picks later on.
#18 - New York Jets select Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
Marqise Lee is a big-time WR that has potential to be a legit #1. He's been in the spotlight so long in LA that the bright lights of NYC won't have any negative impact on him. The Jets have added Vick to help their QB situation, and pairing Lee with Decker gives the Jets some offensive firepower they haven't had in years.
#19 - Miami Dolphins select Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA)
Scouts have been down on Barr recently, so I'm not surprised he falls to the 19th slot. The Dolphins have a lot of different areas they'd like to upgrade, and Barr is definitely the Best Player Available (BPA). Look for them to get a RB and some more O-line help later in the draft.
#20 - Arizona Cardinals select Calvin Pryor (FS, Louisville)
Arizona's biggest weakness, by far, is their secondary starting at their Safety position. This is exactly what Cardinals fans were hoping for, that Clinton-Dix or Pryor fell to them at #20. They get their guy, and start turning their attention to a developmental QB for an aging Palmer and some O-line help.
I'd love to hear your thoughts!