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Witty's Preliminary Draft Needs Evaluation for 2015 While It's STILL 2014


Because the Bucs have been just THAT BAD this season, the 2015 draft can't come fast enough.

Per Sander's tracking, the Bucs are guaranteed the top overall pick if they lose, will not slip further than third overall if they make the foolish effort to win, in the draft order due to Strength of Schedule. While teams play to win, the Bucs have the (dis)advantage of being so bad on offense that losing against a dispirited Saints team is a 70 percent possibility.

That said, let's look at team needs by position, offense first:

Quarterback: rare is the year that I actually want to see the Bucs draft a QB to be the "franchise" guy. I've seen too many busts at QB to think the Bucs will ever get lucky to get such a guy and give him the opportunities to make it. However, our current lineup at QB is about the weakest we've had since 1993, when it was DeBerg and Erickson and God Help Us. McCown has been a terrible veteran acquisition in terms of decision-making and poor throwing. Glennon has been woefully inconsistent, the same problem he had under the coach (FIRESCHIANO) who drafted him. Granted, both of them are playing behind the worst Offensive Line we've ever had, but under the same circumstances Glennon has not be able to win away the starting job.

The Bucs have a very narrow window of improvement here. The coming FA market for quarterback looks terrible, which means the Bucs need to look at drafting a QB. And this draft is showing only two names of any NFL-level talent that can adequately start as rookies - Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. And in this draft, getting a starting QB has to be done in the first few picks: no QB worth starting is gonna slip to the Second Round.

In argument that QB is NOT the highest need - that our need with Offensive Tackle is greater - we need to view the scouting about the O-line talent entering the draft. Almost no scouting is putting an OT in the Top Five best overall players, while Mariota is Top Five at worst. In terms of BPA, Mariota trumps highest need. Making this pick more sensible is that QB is still a Top Three Need for the Bucs - alongside OT and DE - that jumping for Mariota is a smart call.

It all depends on where the Bucs finish: top overall or third overall. Top overall guarantees Mariota. If not, Bucs have to pray the other two teams drafting ahead of them will pass on Mariota (or take Winston even though the scouting on him is null due to off-field issues). If not, Bucs have to consider either biting the bullet on drafting Winston - a Manning on the field and a Ryan Leaf off it - or going for another need spot and gambling on Glennon or a FA QB getting better for 2015.

NEED: High (highest we've needed QB since 2003... yes I am discounting 2009 because QB wasn't what killed the team in 2008)

ODDS: High (definitely highest it's been since the 2009 "Must Draft Franchise QB" Push)

LIKELY DRAFT ROUND: First. Draft simply not deep enough to get a starter caliber any later than the first ten picks, period.

Running Back: Arguably not that high a need, even though our running game has been low-performing. A lot of that is due to a terrible offensive line failing to create blocks and lanes. The talent at RB - Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey, and coach's pet Charlie Sims - is decent enough that drafting here in a non-starter. The only way this changes is if the Bucs do something stupid like cutting or trading Martin or Rainey.

NEED: Low

ODDS and LIKELY ROUND: Not Drafted

Wide Receiver: After the horrors that had been the mid-2000s onward, when the Bucs had one good receiver and then a pack of middling talent, we've got the best One-Two punch since Keyshawn and Keenan. Vincent Jackson is aging but still one of the top ten veteran wideouts in the league, and Mike Evans is in position to be this year's OROY. While the depth is still questionable, there's enough veteran skill (Murphy) and developing talent (Herron) that the Bucs don't have to consider drafting here.

NEED: Low

ODDS and LIKELY ROUND: Later rounds for Special Teams - kick returner - only.

Tight End: This wasn't a good year for the TEs. Myers did little as the veteran, Stocker barely even showed up as a blocker, and rookie ASJ got injuried early and became a non-factor. Thing is, the team can afford to give ASJ the next year to work back into the lineup as healthy, and the need here is more for veteran skills than raw rookie talent. Bucs have too many needs elsewhere to consider drafting here.

NEED: Moderate

ODDS and LIKELY ROUND: Very low and Not likely. Most likely move will be via Free Agency.

Offensive Tackle: The disaster of this season begins and ends with this horrid offensive line. And when you have to fix the whole O-line, getting a solid OT to work the key position of Left Tackle (the QB's blind side) is the first place you draft. Left Tackles are rarely on the Free Agency market: teams are loathe to let any lineman who can play LT go (Right Tackle, maybe, but even that's getting rare).

Problem is, this draft is scouting out to have only one sure-fire franchise Left Tackle type of player... and he's not getting scouted as a Top Ten talent, which is almost insane considering how key LTs are.

When the team was clearly doomed to lose this season and when it was clear the O-line was the reason why, my immediate response was "We gotta draft Left Tackle even over the temptation of drafting a possible franchise QB". Further consideration changed my mind. Need at QB is now higher, even though we're putting ourselves in the hands of yet another rookie who can flame out. The Bucs have two options for getting Left Tackle: trading up into the First Round even after using our First pick for QB so we can get one of the late-round scouted OTs, which kills whatever's left of the draft as the other team's bound to take key draft spots we still need; or sitting pat and hoping a late-round OT slides into the top of the Second.

The depth woes with OT is bad enough that the Bucs may have to draft additional Tackle talent in the later rounds, most likely a small school talent that is gonna have to step up early.

NEED: High (slightly higher than QB, honestly)

ODDS: High (close to no-brainer: our O-line is THAT bad)

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Second Round for starter, AND at least Fifth Round for additional depth/development need.

Offensive Guard: Our poor Tackle play is killing our passing game. Our poor Guard play is killing our running game. While the line is affected by how weak the guy next to you is playing, our current OG situation is a disaster even with veterans - Mankins! - we've traded for.

As far as scouting goes, this draft isn't as deep as last May's, but by tradition/habit solid Guards can be had well into the Fourth and Fifth rounds. Given the weaknesses of the O-line, Bucs may face multiple draft selections for Guard same as Tackle.

NEED: High

ODDS: Moderate

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Third Round at the earliest, at least two OGs taken by the Fifth.

Center: How bad is the offensive line that our problems at Center isn't even much talked about?

Drafting Centers nowadays seems oddly underdone: most teams have taken to drafting Guards to convert over to Center, depending on the blocking schemes used. And drafting one usually can wait until the middle rounds. Thing is, Bucs can't afford to wait that deep into next April's draft. A lot depends on who is available via Free Agency: if a solid Center can be signed to cover this position, Bucs won't have to draft one.

NEED: Moderate

ODDS: Moderate

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Fifth Round or later, if drafted.

Defensive End: Bucs have been looking for a pass rush ever since the heyday of the 2000s defensive front. Draft after draft failed to bring in any replacement for Simeon Rice's epic rush skills, and the attempts at signing FAs have been weak tea. The closest the Bucs had to having a pass rusher was Michael Bennett, and we let him go to Seattle. Signing Johnson didn't work. What has worked is finding a rough gem in Jacques Smith, but it still leaves our starter needs and depth needs open.

Word is, the coming rookie draft is solid with DE pass rushers, with the top overall talent being a DE. And if the Bucs did indeed jump at getting Leonard Williams (or Gregory or Ray), there wouldn't be a lot of argument from people. Thing is, need for fixing the offense trumps fixing the defense right now. Bucs are facing the reality that getting a better QB and a better Left Tackle and better Guards trumps the need at getting a pass rusher.

Whether the Bucs can gamble again with Free Agency to get an end who can fit the cover-2 system is key here. If the team fails to find a decent veteran DE, then going after one in the rookie draft is likely. God help us if the Bucs are sitting there having to choose between a quality OT and a quality DE in the Second Round.

NEED: Moderate

ODDS: Moderate

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Second Round if team fails to find one in FA. Getting QB or LT is still higher.

Defensive Tackle: Getting McDonald as the other DT has helped maintain a veteran presence with some pass-stopping and run-stopping power, and was one of the few solid FA moves the Bucs made. Gerald McCoy is set to come back and is the anchor of that line. Drafting a DT seems less likely than any other need on defense, except for possible upgrade at depth. Given the team needs elsewhere, going after a DT would be foolish.

NEED: Low

ODDS and MOST LIKELY ROUND: None

Outside Linebacker: Lavonte David is the heir to Derrick Brooks' legacy. He's the second-most-important defensive player behind McCoy. Depth is an issue but there's a chance the Bucs can look at moving current MLB Foster over to Strongside LB / backup to David on Weakside. The need here is borderline non-existent. It depends on who we lose via FA.

NEED: Low

ODDS and MOST LIKELY ROUND: None

Middle Linebacker: In the switch to the Cover-2/Tampa-2 based scheme, the need at middle hasn't been completely filled. Foster proved to not get the scheme, which is a shame because previous years showed he has skills to tackle and defend the pass. Lansanah might be a good-enough discovery to play the middle, but if there's a chance of getting a MLB who can play the Cover any better, the Bucs would consider that as much as going for a DE. This is a slightly higher need than DE but most likely will get taken care of either in FA or middle rounds.

NEED: Moderate

ODDS: Moderate

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Third Round at the highest.

Cornerback: Bucs have solid starters in Verner and Banks. Banks in particular is proving to be one of the better draft additions from 2013 once he figured out his role in the cover schemes. What's hurting here is the nickel corner - where the middle of the field, and the slot receiver or tight ends are finding room to catch - and depth overall. Problem is: needs at other positions are higher, most likely making CB one of the positions where needs exist but the draft will let pass. Bucs may have to pursue finding a veteran corner to take that nickel job.

NEED: Moderate

ODDS: Low

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Sixth if anything

Safety: Trading away Mark Barron had to happen. It didn't look like Barron was fitting into the Cover-2, and he still had trade value compared to Goldson. Goldson may be good enough as Strong Safety but he's not showing any improvement in the Cover-2 stuff either. What's killing the team is the lack of a genuine starter at the other Free Safety spot. This makes Safety a higher need than CB (Nickel), but it all depends on what FA provides for deep-pass cover guys that can play Free.

NEED: High

ODDS: Moderate

MOST LIKELY ROUND: Fourth Round if FA doesn't find a solid starter.

Punter: I am not a fan of drafting punters. Most often, teams can find and sign an undrafted rookie to come in and handle punts and kickoffs as long as they can get 40-45 yards per kick. The only time a team should draft a punter is when the veteran guy they have - hi, Koenen! - is starting to punt worse than Tom Tupa (AAAAAAAAUGH) and when there's extra late-round picks in the Sixth and Seventh rounds to secure a qualified "franchise" punter.

I will not NAPALM anyone if the Bucs draft a punter ONLY AS LONG AS IT'S IN THE SIXTH OR SEVENTH ROUND. And it's a guy who gets 50-60 yards a boomer and can pin the football inside the 5-yard-line with his eyes closed.

NEED: Moderate

ODDS: Moderate

MOST LIKELY ROUND: SIXTH ROUND. You hear me, GM? SIXTH ROUND AT THE EARLIEST.

Projected Draft by position:

First - QB
Second - OT
Third - MLB
Fourth - G
Fifth - FS
Sixth - OT/G
Sixth - G
Seventh - P

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