FanPost

We Didn't Start the Dumpster Fire

Here's a chart I created to help assess how poorly the Bucs offensive line has played. I created a new statistic, albeit a very simplistic one. The statistic is called sack percentage (sack %) and simply divides sacks by total passing attempts. This stat goes deeper than simply just tallying sacks allowed, it considers the frequency of sacks. For instance, Kaepernick is being sacked 10.51% of his passing attempts so far this year (highest in the league).

McCown currently has the fourth highest sack percentage in the league, getting sacked 9.2% of his attempts. A more scathing statistic for the O-line is total QB hits surrendered. The Bucs have allowed their opponents to hit their QB more than any other team in the league, by a pretty wide margin. With 99 QB hits, it's likely that many of these hit would be sacks for a less mobile quarterback. This stat, accordingly, may in part speak to McCown's ability to avoid sacks when under duress as well as his low completion percentage. See this pro-football focus article about the effects of QB hits on production.

The Bucs are second to last in rushing yards this year, with slightly more yards than the Raiders (955 team rushing yds). The team only has 5 rushing TDs 13 games into the season - only the Raiders have fewer rushing TDs (4). A lack of running game and poor pass protection is a surefire recipe for disaster - a great description of the Bucs 2014 campaign to date.

The chart below includes updated stats through week 14. The chart displays team rushing as well as quarterback pressure metrics. The QBs sacked the most frequently are at the top and a few of the top performing
QBs are mixed in at the bottom for comparison.

QB Team Rushing Yds. Team: Rushing TDs QB Hits Allowed Sacks Attempts Sack % (Sacks/Attempts) Completion % P-Rating
Kaepernick 1475 6 58 43 409 10.51% 60.6% 85.1
Stafford 1093 9 76 39 494 7.89% 61.50% 87.8
A. Smith 1675 17 62 38 389 9.77% 65.30% 92.2
Bortles 1253 7 91 38 379 10.03% 61.20% 71.4
Newton 1509 8 60 36 401 8.98% 58.40% 81.8
Bridgewater 1488 9 79 28 310 9.03% 61.90% 82.4
McCown 1025 5 99 23 250 9.20% 58.00% 73.9
G. Smith 1946 9 83 22 287 7.67% 57.80% 68
Romo 1938 11 46 25 350 7.14% 69.10% 108.8
Manning 1447 11 31 13 496 2.62% 66.90% 105.7
Brady 1418 10 64 16 496 3.23% 64.70% 100.2

No other team has as bad of a mix of poor run blocking and poor pass protection according to these numbers. The Bucs O-line makes a strong case for worst in the league (neck and neck with Jacksonville).
The two elite quarterbacks in this chart (Manning & Brady) had very low sack percentage stats. Romo, who has the highest passer rating in this chart (Rodgers has the highest but I didn't include him) is leading an offensive propelled by a strong run game making him more efficient when passing.

There's been much talk of the 2015 draft and free-agency. Many point to a QB as a top priority. Although I would be just as excited as the next guy to draft a highly touted QB in round 1 and honestly won't be heartbroken
if the Bucs do go QB in the first, It's clear that the offensive line needs serious attention. I'm not sure if taking QB in the first and sufficiently upgrading this offensive line are mutually exclusive events, but I don't think the free agent market alone will have the solution for this offensive line. This team needs to invest in young talented linemen to build a foundation for their offense. The Jags may serve as good example of a team taking a prospective franchise QB (Bortles) before building any kind of protection/supporting cast for him to thrive in (I bet they wish they would have selected Evans). I would hate to see the Bucs draft a 1st round potential franchise quarterback just to watch him burn out in the raging dumpster fire that is the current offensive line.

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