FanPost

Great Analysis - What are our REAL chances of winning a game or being 0-16.

Let's make this a realistic discussion on our schedule and what games we 'might' possibly stand a chance of winning. I know the idea that we could go 0-16 seems impossible to many of you - and it probably is - so let's look at the facts and see how that shakes out.

Historically:

  • Since going to a 16 game season in 1978, only 1 team, the 2008 Detroit Lions are the only team to go 0-16
  • In 1976, the Bucs first season in the league, we went 0-14
  • Previously, in the entire history of football (some of this predates the formation of the NFL) there have only been 9 teams to lose all of their games in a season. Some of these seasons were shortened due to player strikes, World War II, Team mergers, or teams actually folding, but none of these were full seasons for one reason or another. These records go back as far as 1922. So with the exception of acts of God, Man, or finance only 2 teams have ever had winless seasons due to their own poor playing. Only two and unfortunately we already hold one of those spots. On it's face this implies that an 0-16 season is a difficult task regardless of how bad your team is

.Context:

  • The 2013 Buccaneers are 0-4 but we are not alone. The Steelers, Jaguar's, and Giants are also 0-4. With the exception of the Jags we are in good company
  • We are the highest paid offense in the league this year
  • Of the 4 games played so far we actually held our own, for 3 quarters, against New Orleans, New England, and Arizona. However, it was not offense that put us in those positions, it was the defense. The defense held scoring by the other team down and in many cases were the ones that actually scored the points we did put on the board. So, for the highest paid offense, they cannot score.
  • We are currently the front runner to receive an Emmy for the 'best drama' beating out the Jets and others.
  • Our coach is not only new to the NFL but appears to still be playing College football. Just one case in point, going for the 4th and inches in Buc's territory where despite the luck and play of one player we didn't even end up getting a score out of the drive.
  • Depending on who you talk to it is still apparent that Schiano never wanted Josh Freeman as his quarterback and instead of working with him, inspiring confidence, and thinking of the team instead of his personal agenda he started a campaign of alienation and the eventual drama of last weeks QB switch.
  • Shciano showed his hand and ability to manage men rather than boys by how he handled the whole affair. I could go on about this but it is well documented in many other posts and news. This has to make you question about his overall personality, style, and capability of handling a team of highly paid, professional, hard working men.
  • We have more coaches and coaches assistants than any other team in the league. Is this an 'Entourage' thing, too many cooks in the kitchen, or an oversight? Who knows. Either way it makes for a team that is most likely confused about who is running the show and who to listen to.
  • We have a coach who has a soap box of 'toes on the line' yet whatever they are being taught we are still killing ourselves with fouls based on technical mistakes.
  • Who is Mike Sullivan? I'm not a football player, scout, offensive coach, analyst or anything remotely close but one thing I can guarantee you is that on the first play of every set of new downs we will hand the ball to Doug Martin and run. I highly doubt that this is overlooked by any defensive coordinator in the league.
  • I have nothing bad to say about Mike Glennon. He was forced into the spotlight in an uncomfortable way, he's a rookie, he does not appear to have the same weapons or skill of Josh Freeman - yet, he's never led an NFL team from the pocket, he's under more pressure than any rookie QB should be. Can he handle it? I doubt it but that's no fault of his. He hasn't had time to work on any of this and history tells us, with a few exceptions, a rookie QB, inserted mid-season, in a house of drama has a very tough hill to climb. Don't expect Mike Glennon to light the offense on fire anytime soon.
  • We have a very difficult season ahead of us against quality, seasoned, more or less drama free teams teams

Our Schedule:

  • Week 6 - Eagles at home. Eagles are 1-3 but could be 2-2 if they hadn't run into Peyton Manning week 4. Tampa loses
  • Week 7 - Tampa at Atlanta. Another 1-3 team but we are playing them at home and they only lost by 1 touchdown against Brady and Belichick and still put 23 points on the board. Tampa Loses
  • Week 8 - Panthers at Home. Panthers gave the Giants, another 0-4 team a solid beating in their only win. Can we dismiss Cam Newton? Only at our own peril. He is due for a good season. Tampa Loses
  • Week 9 - Tampa at Seahawks. Seahawks are 4-0 and if you know anything, we don't stand a chance. Tampa loses
  • Week 10 - Dolphins at Home. Dolphins are 3-0. Miami's is hot. Tampa loses.
  • Week 11 - Atlanta at home. Currently Atlanta is 1-3 but who knows what they will be in week 11. It's a home game. If they are a losing team by then maybe there's a chance. Tampa win 50/50 chance and that's a wild ass guess.
  • Week 12 - Tampa at Detroit. Lions are currently 3-1 and are showing the promise of having a great team. If everything keeps going the way it is, Tampa Loses
  • Week 13 - Tampa at Panthers. We don't know how well the Panthers will be doing this late in the season but once again how do you discount Cam Newton. Tampa win 50/50 chance
  • Week 14 - Bills at Home. Bills will remain a .50 team. It is a home game. Could this be the one? Tampa win 50/50 chance.
  • Week 15 - 49rs at Home. Collin Kaepernick will be hot and hungry. Tampa loses.
  • Week 16 - Tampa at Rams. Currently 1-3 and St. Louis doesn't look great this year. Too far out to base on standings. Tampa win 50/50 chance.

Do you disagree with any of this? By my analysis, Tampa stands only a 50/50 chance of winning only 4 games for a 4-12 season. That's if they could win them all and that's not likely.
Okay, it's hard to go 0-16 in this league but 2-14 is not outside the realm of possibility. At what point does Schiano get to go back to Rutgers, if they'll have him?

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