Project Doug Martin’s rushing total for 2013

J. Meric

Now, before you start throwing out some numbers, permit me to indulge you in some pertinent reference points of information.

Where did Martin rank overall in rushing totals in 2012?

Top Rushers for 2012


Rank


Player


Team


Total Yards


Average Yards


Average


Per Game


1


Peterson

Min

2097

6.0

131.1

2


Morris

Was

1613

4.8

100.8

3


Lynch

Sea

1590

5.0

99.4

4


Charles

KC

1509

5.3

94.3

5


Martin

TB

1454

4.6

90.9

How did Martin perform through the season? Here’s a snapshot:

Martin’s Year Snapshot


Games


Attempts Per Game Average


Yards per Game Average


1 – 4


17.75

61.75

5 – 10


21.00

125.50

11 – 16


20.33

75.67

5 – 16


20.67

100.58

Okay. Now how did Martin perform within the division and outside the division. I am doing this to present, if any, huge variance in performance.

2012 Martin's Rushing vs Division (NFC South)


Game


Martin Rush Attempts


Martin Rush Yards


Martin's TDs


Rush Play %


1

Car

24

95

0

0.6

6

NO

16

85

1

0.36

10

Car

24

138

0

0.39

11

Atl

21

50

2

0.4

14

NO

9

16

0

0.23

16

Atl

28

142

1

0.4

Total


122

526

4

2.38

Avg


20.33

87.67

0.67

0.397

Y/A


4.31

2012 Martin's Rushing vs Outside NFC South


Game


Martin Rush Attempts


Martin Rush Yards


Martin's TDs


Rush Play %


2

NYG

20

66

1

0.44

3

Dal

19

53

0

0.47

4

Was

8

33

0

0.32

5

KC

13

76

0

0.48

7

Min

29

135

1

0.53

8

Oak

25

251

4

0.52

9

SD

19

68

0

0.52

12

Den

18

56

0

0.35

13

Phi

28

128

1

0.48

15

StL

18

62

0

0.29

Total


197

928

7

4.4

Avg


19.7

92.8

0.7

0.44

Y/A


4.71

So there isn’t that huge a variance between rushing within the division and outside of it. Thus, we can conclude Martin will be consistent, with a baseline of 87 yards per game minimum. On a 16 game project of 87 yards per game would equate to 1392 total rush yards. Just in case some of you need help to see the lowest I think Martin should achieve, provided he play all 16 games. Yet, based upon the last 12 games where Martin averaged 100.58 yards per game, he would project to 1609.28 total yards rushed for 16 games.

But I advise caution. This team is designed for throwing and throwing deep. The play calling in the last six games favored passing heavily, as in a previous article I have written, yet it is recorded here that Martin’s average attempt barely changed between the middle six games to the last six games, but his rushing average dropped.

So how many yards will Martin earn this year rushing? Use the information above if you like. And if you do use it, find how many yards you think Martin will earn on average per game. Multiply it by 16 and there is your calculated projection.

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