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The real cost of blowing the character question in the draft
I know this is information everyone is looking for: how to lose a million dollars by being as stupid as possible. I know many of you walk around with this as your chief concern in life – "how do I make myself less wealthy". Well we now have our newest example:
"Last weekend, my client Alec Ogletree, was pulled over for speeding and lane violation in Arizona,…After the officers smelled alchol, they conducted tests and also cited him for DUI"
This is Pat Dye Jr. speaking to Pro Football Talk. Dye is the agent of linebacker Alec Ogletree formerly of Georgia. Ogletree was seemingly barreling through to being a high first round pick in April’s draft. Ogletree came into this past season at Georgia serving a 4 game suspension for an unspecified violation of team rules. Despite that suspension Ogletree in 9 games produced 99 tackles, a sack, and a pair of forced fumbles. He showed tremendous range against the run and an uncanny knack for attacking the A gap in pass or run situations. Prior to this incident Mel Kiper had him as the 7th Overall prospect, Todd McShay had him 12th, I had him in my coveted 2nd Tier group of players in this draft. How far will Ogletree fall for this incident? –Well pretty far if recent history proves anything.
Take a look at last years draft and Alfonzo Dennard, coming out of Nebraska he seemed a likely 2nd to 3rd round pick in the 2012 draft. Dennard had not been a choir boy at Nebraska either but seemed to have put most of the character questions behind him. Then he was arrested five days prior to the draft for an assault on a law enforcement officer. Rather than being a day 2 pick, he made it to the end of day 3, when with the 224th overall pick the New England Patriots selected him in round 7. Yes, Dennard eventually became a starter at CB for the Patriots but the financial cost is pretty evident. Lavonte David (our 2nd rounder from last year) signed a four year rookie deal for $3,471,732. Or $ 867,9333 per year. Alfonzo Dennard signed a four year rookie for $2,157,000. Or $539,000 per year.
Another factor to keep in mind is that most rookie contracts are not guaranteed in the NFL. Over the last 10 years not a single first rounder has been cut in training camp the year they were drafted. Ninety-nine percent of 2nd round picks make the roster. Teams are simply not willing to cut bait with players they invested a high draft pick in. As for seventh-rounders -- well let's just say maybe more get cut than ever receive an NFL paycheck.
Being a "bad boy" has its cost. Da’Rick Rodgers was a starter at Tennessee, the same school that boasts fellow star receivers Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter as day 1 and 2 picks. After being kicked off the team with repeated disciplinary issues, Da’Rick is not seriously considered anything better than a 4th round selection. CB Tyrann Mathieu is no stranger to off the field issues. Kicked off the team at LSU, Mathieu will enter the NFL draft knowing (or at least he should know) that many NFL teams will not have him on their draft board at all. Enter former NFL Washington and Houston GM Charley Casserly who commented he had a blanket rule, multiple failed drug tests and he would totally remove a player from his board. Casserly is not the only one, I imagine Mark Dominik also will not have a spot on his board for the Honey Badger at any point in this draft.
So how far will Alec Ogletree fall? I feel secure in saying he can kiss the first round goodbye. Had he been taken in round 1 he could have earned numbers similar to Michael Floyd of Arizona last year who made just under $10,000,000 for four years(2.5 million per season, it really pays to be a first round pick). Going into draft day my guess is that 7-8 teams will have Ogletree totally off their board, meaning they will not pick him at any price. The other 24 teams will drop him by at least 1 round and possibly 2. If Ogletree had tickets to NY to wait to hear his name called he might want to ask for a refund, because at the end of the Day, I think he is now looking at being a late 2nd round or a 3rd round selection.