2012 v 2013 Comparison, After 10 Games in 2013

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This is the second season of the Schiano Squad.  Last year I started collecting data and broke down the season into three parts, before the bye and split the last 12 games in half.  The purpose of this project was to discover a pattern, if any.

On offense, we had a dramatic change as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers replaced starter Josh Freeman, a fifth year veteran, with third round rookie Mike Glennon.  Glennon took over the team from game four, a game preceding the bye week for the Buccaneers.  The team eventually released Freeman as drama plagued the organization from his demotion.  Promoting Glennon to helm the ship would give the team the best chance at winning games, the notion that the organization put out to the media.  In the following table, we get to look back at 2013 as well as notice if the organization was correct.

Bucs Points For (PF) Average Comparison

Game Set

2012

2013

1 - 4

20.5

11

5 - 10

34.1

23.8

11 - 16

17

Season

24.3

18.7

We are trending below what we are accomplishing last year.  The strength of schedule, SOS, for 2013 has the Bucs facing a 0.500 SOS rating, which ranks for 17th overall.  (Link to 2013 SOS.)  The SOS rating for the 2012 schedule was 0.484, ranking 27th overall.  (Link to 2012 SOS.)  This year's SOS is more difficult than 2012, but it still does not excuse winning only two games.  What is baffling is the lack of scoring from the conclusion of last season to the beginning of this season.  Our scoring has definitely improved with rookie Glennon in the line-up.  Let us hope the trend breaks from this Schiano Squad and not falter too much offensively.

During the offseason the organization made two huge splurges in signing for safety Dashon Goldson and traded for cornerback Darrelle Revis.  Our biggest weakness on defense last year was the secondary.  But in the same process, we let go of our best pass rusher in Michael Bennett.  What will the following chart reveal under the same Schiano scheme?

Bucs Points Allowed (PA) Average Comparison

Game Set

2012

2013

1 - 4

22.7

17.5

5 - 10

23.1

25.3

11 - 16

27.6

Season

24.6

22.2

The first four games looked quite promising.  I had hoped that after the bye that the team would take the defense onto another level.  The defense did, but in the opposite thought in mind.  Surprisingly, we won two games despite having a negative average differential for the second game set in 2013 (PF - PA).  And then the differential between the game sets of 2013 is the worst compared to the 2012 season at - 7.8 points.

In 2013 game sets, both sets the team has allowed more points than scored.  Whereas in 2012, the team was able to score more than allowed in its middle game set.  Not surprisingly, that is when the team went 5 - 1.

With the run game established again for the past three games, the team has won two of the three.  I ventured down the road that the Bucs would benefit more by running more than passing.  Here is the 2012 play calling chart breakdown:

2012 Tampa Bay Bucs, Play Calling

Game #

Game

Opp Score

Bucs Score

Pass Play Call Pct

Run Play Call Pct

Win/Loss

Lost by (pts)

1

vs Carolina

10

16

0.40

0.60

Win

2

at NYG

41

34

0.56

0.44

Loss

7

3

at Dal

16

10

0.53

0.47

Loss

6

4

vs Was

24

22

0.68

0.32

Loss

2

Bye

Sum

91

82

0.54

0.46

0

Average

22.75

20.5

0.54

0.46

#DIV/0!

5

vs KC

10

38

0.52

0.48

Win

6

vs NO

35

28

0.64

0.36

Loss

7

7

at Min

17

36

0.47

0.53

Win

8

at Oak

32

42

0.48

0.52

Win

9

vs SD

24

34

0.48

0.52

Win

10

at Car

21

27

0.61

0.39

Win

Sum

139

205

0.54

0.46

0

Average

23.16

34.16

0.54

0.46

#DIV/0!

11

vs Atl

24

23

0.60

0.40

Loss

1

12

at Den

31

23

0.65

0.35

Loss

8

13

vs Phi

23

21

0.52

0.48

Loss

2

14

at NO

41

0

0.77

0.23

Loss

41

15

vs St. L

28

13

0.71

0.29

Loss

15

16

at Atl

17

22

0.54

0.46

Win

Sum

164

102

0.63

0.37

0

Average

27.33

17

0.63

0.37

#DIV/0!

When the play calling for the run was 46% or more of the total plays called, then the team has won 6 out of 8 games.  Below 46%, then the team was 1 for 8.  That was 2012.  Will the rest of 2013 play out similarly?  But do notice in the last six games of the year how the organization deviated away from the balanced game of pass and run to more of a passing offense.

2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Play Calling Breakdown

Game #

Game

Opp Score

Bucs Score

Pass Play Call Pct

Run Play Call Pct

Win/Loss

Loss by

1

NYJ

18

17

0.55

0.45

Loss

1

2

NO

16

14

0.40

0.60

Loss

2

3

NE

23

3

0.65

0.35

Loss

20

4

Ari

13

10

0.58

0.42

Loss

3

Bye

Sum

70

44

0.55

0.45

0

Average

17.5

11

0.55

0.45

#DIV/0!

5

Phi

31

20

0.67

0.33

Loss

11

6

Atl

31

23

0.61

0.39

Loss

8

7

Car

31

13

0.78

0.22

Loss

18

8

Sea

27

24

0.39

0.61

Loss

3

9

Mia

19

22

0.36

0.64

Win

10

Atl

13

41

0.40

0.60

Win

Sum

152

143

0.54

0.46

0

Average

25.33

23.83

0.54

0.46

#DIV/0!

Presuming we are utilizing the 46% baseline for run play calling, then we can we deduce from the chart above?  There are four games where we ran at 46% or above for the total plays and won two games, the only two wins of the season.  We are winless in the other six games played where passing was prominent.  The odd thing is we have changed quarterbacks, then the premise remains true for this regime that it needs the run game to just as important or more important than establishing the passing game.  If the team had a quarterback like a Brees, then things could be different.

I hope we are done experimenting of forcing a square peg into a round hole.  Glennon had his best outing against the Falcons in the second meeting and it he was called to pass 40% of the time.  With the discovery of running backs Mike James and Bobby Rainey to add depth behind Doug Martin, the following year should have a heavy dose of run, run and more running.  My hope is they vary how they run and not do a draw 90% of the time.

Note:  I am not stating the running game is the end all of our woes as it it a team game.  But running more gives the team more of a chance at winning.

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