NFL picks against the spread, Week 5: Jaguars have to cover at some point

Sam Greenwood

Yes, we're doing picks against the spread.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have their bye week, and that means I have nothing better to do than to pick games against the spread. I'm not match for JC's weekly Deadlocks, but why not, right? Feel free to disagree heavily with me. That'll be fun.

Lines from here.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (pick 'em): The Saints look like they're about ready to dominate the NFL, and everything's going their way. It feels like 2009 all over again, while the Bears faltered last week. Chicago may be at home, but I can't pick them. Pick: Saints

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1): Rob Gronkowski's out, the Patriots still have no weapons, and now their running game has been hit by injuries. Then again, the Cincinnati Bengals offense is absolutely horrible right now and Aqib Talib is leading a resurgent New England defense. Pick: Patriots.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7): The Lions look really good, the Packers defense does not and Reggie Bush is a manbeast. History says the Packers are really good at beating the spread within the division, but I'm not seeing it here. Pick: Lions.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans: The Titans will be starting...wait, who are they starting? /looks up../collapses. Yeah, they're starting Ryan Fitzpatrick. Their defense is good and all, but they're doomed. Pick: Chiefs.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts: This is the best matchup of the week, by far. Two young quarterbacks with good defenses go up against each other. Is Trent Richardson finally ready to live up to his draft status? It matters not, because the Seahawks are playing this game at 1 a.m. on the road, which has historically been a disaster for them given the fact that it's effectively 10 a.m. for their body clocks. And this is their second week in a row playing that early. I'd pick the Colts straight up in this one. Pick: Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5): Look, the Jaguars are not going 0-16 against the spread. At some point they are going to cover, and the Rams may very well be a good opportunity to do so. The Jaguars are horrific, of course, but the Rams aren't all that pretty themselves. Pick: Jaguars

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3): The Ravens are so inconsistent, I don't know what to make of them. Then again, the same is true for the Baltimore Ravens. This is a close one and the Ravens aren't great by any stretch of the imagination, but they should be able to at least cover here. Pick: Ravens.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2): The Giants are favored in this game? Really? Not that the Eagles defense is that good, but they have pass rushers and the Chip Kelly offense should stomp all over this pathetic New York defense. Pick: Eagles.

Carolina Panthers (-2) at Arizona Cardinals: The Arizona Cardinals offense looked beyond awful last week, because their offensive line stinks and Carson Palmer can't operate under pressure. Meanwhile, the Panthers pass rush is really good, they have a running game and Cam Newton can go off in any game. Daryl Washington or not, I can't see the Cardinals coming close in this one. Pick: Panthers.

Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Peyton Manning has destroyed Monte Kiffin defenses in the past, and now he has more weapons than ever. Then again, a 7.5-point spread on the road is a lot to cover, and the Cowboys have a pretty good offense. The Mannings will probably win, but it doesn't have to be by a lot. Pick: Cowboys

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5): Matt Schaub has shown in the past that he'll have games like the one he had last week, but those won't keep happening forever. Meanwhile, the Texans have a good defense and the 49ers offense really is struggling despite last week's result. Pick: Texans

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders: Philip Rivers is on fire, and the Oakland Raiders are not. Even if they sign Josh Freeman, their offense has issues, as does their defense. I am never staying up to watch this game, though. Pick: Chargers.

Atlanta Falcons (-10) at New York Jets: Geno Smith is a rookie quarterback and will do rookie quarterback things, but wow this Atlanta squad has just been decimated by injuries. The Jets defense is really good and they are going to destroy this Atlanta offensive line. They may not win, but this should at least be close. Pick: Jets.

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