Are we a SuperBowl Team?

Day Three May Decide Our Fate

So most of you have probably lost some interest in the NFL Draft, understandable, the big stars are gone…or are they. 158 Picks will occur today, the history of the NFL draft tells us between 5 and 15 Pro Bowler’s will be taken today. Let’s stick with 10, that gives us a 6.2% chance with each pick of finding a Pro-Bowl caliber player. Long odds, but teams that beat the long odds are the teams that play in February.

In Fact I’d argue that if you want to win a SuperBowl you HAVE to find a late round GEM at some point on day three, don’t believe me ok here is a list of prime time performers found on day 3 or UFA:

New York Giants

RB Ahmad Bradshaw Marshall – 7th Round Draft Pick 2007

WR Victor Cruz Massachusetts – A priority UDFA from the 2010 draft

MLB Mark Herzlich – UDFA 2011 Draft

Green Bay Packers

C Scott Wells Tennessee – 7th Round 2004, Pro Bowl Center

DT Johnny Jolly Texas A&M – 6th Round 2006

PK Mason Crosby Colorado – 6th Round 2007

New Orleans Saints-

OG Jahri Evans OT/OG Bloomsburg – 4th Round 2006 Pro-Bowl OG

OT Jermon Bushrod LT Towson – 4th Round 2007 Pro-Bowl LT

OG Carl Nicks OG Nebraska – 5th Round 2008 Pro-Bowl OG

What good players are left:

time will tell but here is HOW you find one, and some players who will fit that mold:

1) Kickers & Punters: Pro-Bowl kicker and punters are found from round 4 – 7 All the time

NFL Examples: Stephen Gostkowski PK Memphis 4th RND 2006

Nick Folk PK Arizona 6th RND 2007

2) Players with character concerns that push them down

NFL Example : LaRod Stephens-Howling RB Pittsburg 7th RND 2009

Brandon Marshall WR UCF 4th RND 2006

3) Players who lack “elite” Measurables told they were too short, not fast enough or big enough

NFL Example: Trent Cole DE Cincinnati 5th Round 2005

Elvis Dumervil OLB Louisville 4th RND 2006

Kam Chancellor S Virginia Tech 5th ROUND 2010

4) Players from small colleges who didn’t get properly evaluated

NFL Examples: Johnny Knox WR Abilene Christian 5th RND 2009

Michael Turner RB N. Illinois 5th RND 2004

5) Players from non-value positions like running backs, interior offensive lineman(Usually tackles converting inside to guard), inside linebackers, and safety

NFL Examples: Dashon Goldson S Washington 4th RND 2007

Marion Barber III RB Minnesota 4th RND 2005

6) Backup QB’s, players who didn’t get a full chance early in their collegiate careers or had to continually battle for a starting position, didn’t get a full look from the NFL. (Quick note: More NFL QB’s starting today were drafted in round 7 than in Round 2)

NFL Examples: Matt Cassel QB USC 7th RND 2005

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard 7th RND 2005

What you DON’t DO: Draft big school kids with decent measurables without a reason, if they belonged on an NFL roster and “fit” the mold of an NFL player, there is a reason their production wasn’t good enough to land them in the top 3 rounds – Good teams won’t keep them.

My List of Great Players Left Today Who fit this mold(And Which Rule Above they fit)

(In Order that I expect them to be Pro-Bowl Caliber Players)

1&4 Greg Zuerin PK Missouri Western – 60 yard range and deadly accuracy, best PK in this draft

5 Ben Jones C Georgia – Someone’s missing a great center with this kid

3&5&6 Kellen Moore QB Boise St. – A better version of Ryan Fitzpatrick, still my #4 QB in this draft

5 Lamar Miller RB Miami(FL) – Runningback falling fast

5 Brandon Washington T/G Miami(FL) – Will need to convert from LT to inside at guard but got moved around at Miami and never settled into a position

2&3 Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska – Stone hands an elite corner if he could catch plus the arrest doesn’t help

2&3&4&5 Asa Jackson CB/FS Cal-Poly – Tons of reasons NOT to pick this kid, but plenty of talent there

3 Rob Massey OT Ole Miss – Not a lot of love for a strict RT who can’t swing to the left side as a Pro

5 Chris Polk RB Washington – Health concerns are killing this kid

5 Cyrus Gray RB/KR Texas A&M – Another unloved runningback

1 Blair Walsh PK Georgia – Was #1 until the off-season

1 Shawn Powell P Florida St. – Hey at least your not investing a third rounder – like some team I know

2&4 Janzen Jackson S McNeese ST. – Good athlete bad boy off the field

4 Josh Norman CB Coastal Carolina – Long and lanky dominated small college competition

2 Orson Charles TE Georgia – Was the Clear cut 2nd or 3rd TE in this draft till he decided to get a DUI last month

1&4&5 Shawn Losieau MLB Merrimack – Character, Small school but tons of production, has earned a second chance

6 Ron Brooks CB LSU – Okay not a QB but was buried on the depth chart at LSU

5 Bradie Ewing FB Wisconsin – Ahhh no love for the dying position of fullback

4 Tom Compton OT S. Dakoita – Hmmm small college kid with a nasty streak fits the recipe

3&5 Daivd Molk C Michigan – Powerful but undersized

3 DeQuan Menzie CB/FS Alabama – Too small , too slow but a great playmaker

5 Michael Brewster C Ohio St. – Only 1 Center job per team but some really good ones in this draft

4 LaDarius Green TE UL-Lafeyette – Great receiving TE better than Egnew in my book

3 Danny Coale WR Virginia Tech – Not big enough fast enough or strong enough, but makes plays

4 Vaugh Meatoga DT Hawaii – No one could afford the Hawaii air fare?

4 Dustin Waldron OT Portland St. – Underloved small school gamer

1 Drew Butler P Georgia – solid directional punter

5 Rhett Ellison FB/TE USC – lots of versatility

4&5 Emil Iwenagu FB/TE UMASS – ditto the versatility add in the small school factor

3&5 Chris Galieppo MLB USC – Lots of people having been trying to keep this kid off the field, really miscast as a Tampa 2 MLB

4 Duke Ihenacho SS San Jose St. – From the Dregs of the FBS division Duke’s a gem

5 Danny Trevethan OLB Kentucky – Productive have a feeling he will be a strong side backer in a 4-3

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