FanPost

Why avoiding CB in the 1st is disastrous

Starting note: I looked through the rules and I couldn't find that linking sites was against the rules. If it is, please remove my links.

There has recently been a lot of talk that the Bucs can simply find a corner in the 2nd round. Without doing much research, finding a corner in the second sounds plausible. However, this is a very flawed assumption.

To set the stage, the Bucs need a corner that has potential to come in and be our #1 corner very soon. In my projections, there are 5 corners that fit this need. Morris Claiborne, Stephen Gillmore, Dre Kirkpatrick, Janoris Jenkins, and Alfonzo Dennard. All of these corners except for Dennard have 1st round grades. So in the most realistic of scenarios, the only corner to drop into the second round is Dennard.

If you're the type that likes mock drafts, here you go.

Walter football: http://walterfootball.com/draft2012.php

Claiborne: 9 , Gillmore: 28 , Kirkpatrick: 17 , Jenkins: 23 , Dennard makes it to the 2nd round.

Bleach Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1117908-2012-nfl-mock-draft-1st-round-prospects-who-should-turn-down-invite-to-ny

Claiborne: 5 , Gillmore: 23 , Kirkpatrick: 17 , Jenkins: 31 , Dennard makes it to the 2nd round.

The 5th down from NY times: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/24/2012-n-f-l-mock-draft/

Claiborne: 4 , Gillmore: 26 , Kirkpatrick: 15 , Jenkins: 17 , Dennard makes it to the 2nd round.

Sports Illustrated: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/don_banks/03/23/2012.mock.draft.3/index.html

Claiborne: 5 , Gillmore: 20 , Kirkpatrick: 21 , Jenkins: 23 , Dennard makes it to the 2nd round.

One of my favorite drafte sites Draft Tek: http://www.drafttek.com/CMDRound1.asp

Claiborne: 5 , Gillmore: 14 , Kirkpatrick: 17 , Dennard 31, Jenkins: makes it to the 2nd round because of off field issues ,

Nfl.com Mock drafts: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts

The 4 mocks all have 4 corners going in the first with Dennard in the 2nd.

The first point I want to make with these mock drafts is to debunk the thought that if Claiborne is selected after the Bucs that it pushes the entire class backwards and makes it easier to get a CB in the next round. This is farther from the truth. Teams make these magical lists called Big Boards. These lists rank every player in the draft with their value attached to a specific pick in the draft. These lists do not change or alter while the draft is in progress because "Oh no, Claiborne was picked at 6 instead of 5!" This doesn't happen. Claiborne could go anywhere between 1-10 and it wouldn't affect the next corner's value at all. The only position that this could be argued different is QB, but that is a whole different discussion.

Now to look at the Mock drafts. All of them have 4 corners going in the 1st. This means the Bucs have to rely on the pure hope that a single corner gets past the Rams, Colts, and Vikings in the second. Each of these three teams had atrocious defenses last year (like us) and are in big need of corners.

Hell, the vikings are in the same exact boat the Bucs are in right now. They are in desperate need of a corner. They released Cedric Griffin this off-season. That means their starting corners are Asher Allen and Benny Sapp. Do you think they are going to pass on a CB in the second? I don't think so.

Regardless of what the teams ahead of us in the second select, there is a major issue with only one corner being there in the second. Front Offices play it safe. The Bucs know fully that they have a need at CB. They know that it must be one of our 2 first picks. They run more draft scenarios over and over than our minds can comprehend. Knowing all of this, do you really think the Bucs are going to pass up on Claiborne? Do you really think they are going to gamble on the hope that a single corner gets to us in the second round? I don't think so.

What happens in the scenario that we take someone like Richardson in the first and the 4 first round grade corners go before us. Do we sit pretty in our #36 pick hoping that Dennard gets to us? Do we trade up? These are questions that I would rather not have our front office have to answer, and I don't think they want to answer those questions either. I believe fully that if we grab RB in 1st that they would be forced to trade up to ensure that we get a corner. If we trade up we lose more draft picks. We lose more draft picks we don't get a 3rd round LB.

On a final thought, if Claiborne does get selected before our #5 pick I believe the team would prefer to trade out. On top of that, with the recent loss of Lofton we are still in need of a LB. Getting additional picks to fill our holes would be great. A scenario of trading back and getting a Mid-late 1st round pick and an additional second could leave us with a 1st round corner, and a LB and RB in the second. A David Wilson- Lavonte David combination or a Mychal Kendricks- Doug Martin combination would be likely. However, we still have a chance at Hawthorne so this is just an assumption. I'm still riding the boat of RT in the second.

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